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RE: 7/27/17 Trade log for TradersChoice trades for the week starting 7/27/17
Hi Joe, what do you recommend to someone who wants to get into trading but doesn't know a great deal...? Any books? Finance degree...?
I can't think of anything to refer you to as most technical analysis books advocate moving averages, volume stats, chart patterns, and I don't believe any of that is important. Just price. Because price is determined by what you are willing to pay at any given time...the "true" gauge of the ave guy's estimation of value at any given time. So try and concentrate on using only technical indicators that measure sentiment. RSI is a powerful one. If actual price is making a higher high, yet the RSI readings are coming in at a looower high reading...that is a sure sign that "buying power" is fading fast. Look at the oil short I outlined today based on the current 10 day chart of oil tracking ETF USO. Notice the higher highs in price today, yet look at the loower RSI readings as this new price high is being printed. Learning to master RSI alone can save you from an ass kicking! :-0 So why not start there?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=uso&x=67&y=12&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
We've been seeing these type moves all over the place...and everything keeps ripping higher and higher. I know "someday, week, month, year" its going to crash hard. Maybe from much much higher levels.
Has it? Tell that to the guy who tried to help Tessie with her weight issues in the past. Rippin til you get your "face ripped off!" ...like Greg would say. Do you think the guy who "heeded" my GOOGL advice as outlined on my shits n GOOGLes blog is excited about his purchase above $980 right now? That's why it's impotent that my message is herd. Why should you get your ass kicked if you don't have to? I bet you think tehre is noooo waaay I can spalunk Price Lies, Netflix, or FacePlant like what just happened with AMZN, GOOGL, and Tessie...do ya? But back to the topic. Nobody's making any chachingo unless you got in "before" the rally started, and held. Here's my call to buy the Q's.
https://steemit.com/qqq/@joejustjoe/7-5-17-qqq-trade-blog
7/5/17?!! Tell me why you are not in and holding...and "happy!" as I never did say to sell the Q's since. :-0 It's your ooown fault that you are miserable...nobody else's. :-)
Here's the dollah via dollar tracker UUP. I showed you a sell just based on RSI readings with USO. Now look at just RSI readings on UUP. Looower price...yet higher RSI readings at a "potential" tradable low.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=uup&x=44&y=9&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
Spend the weekend studying these two charts as "textbook" view of what things look like at a top or bottom based solely on RSI readings. RSI study is my #2 technical tool. No way you can get your ass kicked if you learn to short chart patterns like USO and buy chart patterns like UUP over time.... as long as you don't "panic" :-)
Thanks for that! I will study those for sure. I'm still learning what indicators like RSI are, so still a little green but keen to learn. Any chance you might one day share you're #1 technical tool? ;)
I already do share my #1 technical tool which is the DMI indicator you see on every chart posted. That indicator tells you where major support/resistance areas are, which high still needs to get taken out, sell signals....all the good stuff. Every single spew I make has my price targets already "pre" determined before I even say a thing. Pretty neat...no? You don't even have to think! :-) Since there are so many things that can be determined with the DMI (ADX, +Di, and -Di) readings I won't confuse you mainly because I don't get paid to confuse you or answer your questions. And I'm not saying that becuz I think you are a pain. It's becuz I "know" you will become a pain if I let you pound me with questions. I learnt that in the past. :-) If you'd like, and can get me an upvote worth at least .05, I will give you a quick overview of ANY stock ticker you want to find out at least the short term "truth" about it. Just tell me the stock symbol you want anal-ise'd. I think that's fair. :-) Anyhoo, RSI alone will keep you from getting your ass kicked. One thing to keep in mind with RSI is that readings of 80+ on a stock mean it is already at least short term overbought. Therefore, only short a stock where RSI readings have hit 80 on your short term chart. And only short if price then makes a new high without setting a new RSI reading of 80 or higher on that higher high. The opposite applies on buying lows, RSI readings at 20 or less are the trigger to watch for a new buy to materialize. Now you are an expert on RSI and if you simply follow those rules at highs or lows you won't get your ass kicked. I promise :-)
Here's another neat situation and you can follow it with me to a new 52 week low and possibly bankruptcy. OK, psychomalogically spekkin, retail sux and we all know that. Amazon is going to drive every retailer out of businesss and that's why AMZN stock traded high enough to be able to take an $85 shit in 1 day of trading....yesterday...after great errrnuns. And I don't care what anyone says, Amazon's errrnuns were GRRREAT! If they weren't the stock would never have traded to $1080+ :-) Anyhoo, 1 month ago retail sucked so bad that J.C.Penney was about to file for bankruptcy in 2 weeks...becuase that's what all the anal-ysts were saying. Yet if you had actually bought JCP 3 weeks ago (below 4.50) you are now doing at least as well if not better than AMZN shareholders did for the same time period. "If" you want to follow JCP down to a potential bankruptcy filing you can start tracking JCP with me. You handle the RSI readings and thos corresponding overbought and oversold signals that may come up. Let me know when JCP is a buy bases on RSI readings alone. Right now it is a sell....that's "clearly" visible on the chart. So please don't say that you don't see it. :-)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=jcp&x=54&y=16&time=18&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F18%2F2017&freq=7&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1024&lf2=2&lf3=8&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11
One of the things my DMI readings does is helps purrdict just how high something may run off of a major support area. For JCP the nearest one is 4.51, the low just set basically. I would have no fear of scaling into a JCP short slowly already out until Aug expiry. It "might" see 5.85 before it drops though. If that actually happens come back and ask me why it happened. If it just drops...you make the next buy call using RSI oversold readings. You nervous about this? :-)
Yes I've always wondered how traders can confidently predetermine price targets, and it's great that you have explained how you do that. Completely understand that you don't want to waste your time answering questions from grubs like me, but you've gone far further with you're answers than I was expecting and I appreciate that very much! I'll get to work on those upvotes for you.
Yes I see in that JCP chart how the price has taken off but the RSI hasn't done much the entire time - strong sell signal (Mum, look I'm learning!).
I live in New Zealand so I'm not too familiar with J.C. Penney company or stock price action, and Amazon isn't on our market. Short selling isn't common here, at least the platform that I've used to buy shares, which is the most common one doesn't offer it. I think there's a bunch of tax BS here in regards to lending stocks. I have a lot to figure out before I get started.
I'll follow JCP with you because you've got me hooked now and I'm dying to see what it does. And yes I would be nervous about this! But nervous in a good way.
Do you want to try and call a buy on JCP using the RSI readings? There would be a while of a wait before you would get your chance to. JCP would have to sell down quite a bit. If you plan on following along using the chart service I linked you to and want to give it a try I will start a new blog. You and I will rescue JCP together if you want to. That way if and when it's time to buy you can be "proud" to know you did your part to make America great again. I imagine New Zealend is great right now...cpet it's winter and you can't go snow skiing? :-) that'd suck.
Yep I'm 100% keen for that. The sooner America can be great again the better as far as I'm concerned. There's a few ski fields an hours drive from where I live, I'm pretty sure they're all open. I'm not much of a skier though, maybe when I'm older and have a few more dollars.... ;)
OK, I posted the JCP blog for you and I to "try" and rescue it from Argamegdon. To reiterate the RSI rules of buying...there will be no "potential" buy and hold until the RSI reading on the 10 day chart tags 20 or less for the first time. Then wait for a looower low with no new RSI reading of 20 or less. See how eeeasy this crap is? :-)
Awesome Joe, thanks a bunch. I should have myself all setup by then. It's good to have a mentor, even if he/she is an internet stranger from the other side of the world :0. What a time to be alive. I won't let you down, wait for my call.
OK, great! I will open a JCP blog and together you and I will save if from Amazon and belly up! I'm proud of you for having teh guts to step up. Simply reply on my new JCP blog if you thin it is time to "buy the pullback!" as directed solely by the RSI readings....or if there is a BIG sale at J.C. Penney. Baby needs new shoes! :O