Thanks for the interesting update - I agree and liquidated my gold position. What I am wondering - it seems stock markets are in trouble in general. The DOW and the S&P500 - also the NASDAQ seems to struggle. Not talking about Asia really not looking bad. For me it looks like a storm is coming but not like in a few years but in the next month. Any thoughts on this?
In my opinion they look kinda weak right now, yes. But as long as they don't start dropping hard now (which would invalidate some of the more obvious bullish counts) I think we are still fine and on the way up.
Sentiment is very bearish right now. Even above the historical average. It is very hard for equities to start a signifcant drop on bearish sentiment.
source:
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Interesting - Thanks for the link. I know about that a drop is more likely if the sentiment is bullish - but I need to do more thinking what is really the rational behind it. I would make sense if people think that it is bearish that they sold already and there is no more stock to sell. But is that really the case at the moment? Other wise I would think that if their fear of a bearish outlook is confirmed eg. by indexes making lower highs - lower lows that than a sell off would take place.
You got any educational links or books on that for me to read?
I don't have a link or something but just the fact that 80+% of traders lose all their trading money within 5 years. Even hodlers and investors get scared in multi month or multi year corrections and sell low. In this system most people have to lose. Few always get the money of the many. That is why when there is a unified sentiment among investors, they are usually wrong, at least from a midterm perspective.
Historically speaking it almost never makes sense to sell low. The markets always recovered even after big depressions (sometimes it takes 5-12years to recover and that is a long time to be patient).
Will that go on forever? Nobody knows. If the world turns into a stagnant, not growing, violent and oppressive piece of shit (we are not far away from the orwellian dystopia in my opinion), things other than crypto or precious metals might not recover. The whole financial system might blow up like all the previous ones did.