Gold Rush 2024
To understand the events happening around precious metals, we first need to look at what the world's central banks have been doing in recent years.
— If in 2020 central banks bought 300 tons of gold, then by 2022 their purchases exceeded 1,000 tons.
— The expectations for 2024 are that central banks will buy at least 1,100 tons.
— It is likely that in 2025 the volume of gold purchases by central banks will increase by at least another 5-8%.
The reasons are clear. We have been talking about them for several years.
Redistribution of the structure of foreign exchange reserves, gradually moving away from the dollar and related instruments.
Increasing global tensions.
Declining trust in official inflation statistics, and overall declining trust in the financial system and fiat currencies.
"International consulting company Capgemini released the World Wealth Report on the number of millionaires in the world and their total wealth for 2023. The company estimated that the number of wealthy individuals grew by 5.1% last year, reaching 22.8 million people. Their combined wealth also increased — by 4.7%, to $86.8 trillion."
The reason is clear — the income growth of the wealthiest segments due to the rapid increase in the market capitalization of a significant number of publicly traded companies. Endless stock buybacks. And a global shortage of high-quality labor.
The trend of increasing gold acquisitions by central banks is likely to continue in the coming years.
So what about the near future?
Apparently, another serious escalation between Israel and Hezbollah is unavoidable. Due to constant shelling, northern Israel is on fire today. About 100,000 people have been forced to leave their homes.
It seems that in the next 2 weeks, there will be very severe confrontation.
Hezbollah has several hundred thousand missiles, flying distances of over 300 kilometers. This is an army hardened by a long war with ISIS. This is a special forces trained in Iran.
A confrontation with Hezbollah is a quasi-war with Iran. It's all very serious.
At the same time, recently, US President Joe Biden allowed for the possibility of American military intervention in the event of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan.
China immediately responded that "threats will not shake China's resolve to defend the country's territorial integrity, and interference by other countries in the Taiwan issue is unacceptable."
So, apparently, the world is unlikely to become more peaceful in the near future. This, in turn, means that gold still has room to grow.
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