Gold continues to rise in spite of most fundamental factors.

If you ask the average investor what is driving the gold price up, the answers are most often:

*growing inflation. However, inflation is much lower now than it was a year ago
*increased buying of gold ETFs. However, gold ETFs are on the contrary being sold off by investors
*low interest rates. However, central bank rates are at their highest levels in 3 decades

To these points we can add one more, not the most obvious one. The increase in gold coin sales, should help the gold price rise. Let's see what is happening in this market.

And what is happening in this market is as follows. Sales of gold coins are not increasing, but decreasing! The best proof of the problems with gold coin sales comes from the United States Mint, the national mint of the United States. After shipping 123,000 troy ounces of gold in the form of American Eagle gold coins in January, that figure dropped to 19,500 ounces in February.

March saw a further decline to 12,000 troy ounces, which corresponds to the lowest level of sales since December 2022. Compared to the same period last year, significant declines were recorded in January (minus 25%), February (minus 66%) and March (minus 94%). This led to an annualised fall of 65% in the first quarter of 2024.
Interest in Australian gold coins and bars has also plummeted. For example, the Australian Mint reported a sharp drop in interest in buying gold in March. 16,442 troy ounces of gold were sold, down 65 per cent from the previous month and even 80 per cent from the twelve-month period.

The last time things were even worse was in June 2019. By comparison, Australians were able to sell more than 180,000 troy ounces of gold in November 2022.

German precious metals sellers are also reporting increased profit taking on gold bars and coins. Sellers are now clearly in the majority, which has significantly increased the supply of the available commodity.

As a result, demand for freshly minted gold coins has virtually collapsed. After all, for most gold buyers, it doesn't matter whether a gold coin is "brand new" or was issued in previous years and is in good condition (no scratches or blemishes).

The massive wave of sales has resulted in premiums for gold bars and gold coins being at extremely low levels historically. Typically, gold buyers get more gold for their money when buying bullion than they do for coins of identical weight. However, this supposed law of the market is not currently in effect, so the exact opposite situation is now occurring. This is further proof that we are not experiencing "normal" times right now.
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