Gnosis Prediction Market - Token Auction ! Questionable Success - the Distribution Disaster

Today was the Gnosis Token Auction - reached Goal after 12 minutes, ~313 million US $ !

this was fast...

Nevertheless
This Outcome is disappointing !
But not because you may missed something.

---

what is it ?
Gnosis (based on Ethereum Blockchain) :

A CROWD SOURCED WISDOM
Speculate on anything with an easy-to-use prediction market.

---

You should better be aware about the formed conditions on this GNO Token Sale !
Let's look into it.

Token Auction Ended
Tokens will be tradable one week after the auction has ended.

• 250k Ether investment
  (Fine)
• ~30$ per GNO
  (expensive !!! explained below)
• ~300m US$ of all token
  (Atm comparable with monero - #8 by cryptocurency marketcap)

---

In about one week major exchanges will begin to list the GNO Token !

It's not unusual for markets to go crazy when new assets are tradable.
If there are profits, some early investors / Tokenholders want to safe some return.
And on the other side there are traders and new investors which are willing to buy for speculation.
Actually these are mostly busy times on these Assets, as the prices has to find new resistence in a bigger environment.

https://twitter.com/Poloniex/status/856570173112942593

But GNO...
should be really interesting to watch, but carefully to treat,
as there was formed a very disappointing Distribution of the token.
It is remarkable, that the high Buying Pressure itself, by VERY early Investors, triggered this terrible Tokendistribution ! (explained below)

Be Aware of highly concentrated ownerships !

---

Let me explain a few things to you:

according to:
https://etherscan.io/token/Gnosis?a=0x1d0DcC8d8BcaFa8e8502BEaEeF6CBD49d3AFFCDC

The Community just bought 418,777 GNO Tokens.
8,581,222 went to the Gnosis team !

So 4.188 % are distributed to the community.
This is Bad !

I am not even sure if this deserves the term Distributed or Decentralized !?

---

But how could this happen !?

As you can see this was kind of a reverse Auction settled for 1 month.
As the price of each Token would decrease over time, the percentage of GNO distributed to Sale Participants would increase !
There were established quantities of GNO for Investors and the Gnosis Company based on time !

After 14 Days It would have been around 50% for the Sale Participant and 50% for The Gnosis Company and continue to increase in favor of Investors !
After 23 Days the investors would have collected more than 80% of all GNO.
The Deal would have improved day by day ! (more tokens, for better prices to investors)

---

"Be Patient !"

As you can see on the scale:
Over time the percentage amount of GNO token are distributed to Investors (instead of the company) would increase.
So this Auction was about being patient to get a good offer.
But as there was a fixed Goal of around 313 million Dollar, this became a Bear trap !
If you want to participate with best results , investors had to deal with patience and fomo at the same time !
Be early enough to have a share but wait long enough to guarantee an altruistic distribution for the investors as a collective !

---

"Altruism or Egoism ?"

In this case ... 12 Minutes !

The Investors are getting the Worst ! 4.18 % !!!

• The Gnosis token sale ended at a theoretical 312.5 Million valuation.
• Only 4.18 % of all tokens have been distributed to the early investors, the other 95.83 % of the tokens is in hands of the Gnosis team.
• The Gnosis team now owns 299 million USD in artificial token value. They've invested 0 USD.
• In contrast, the investors who paid 100 % of the money, invested and own 13 million USD in tokens.
• they paid 31.25 USD per Gnosis token and as a collective, have only received 4.17 % of all tokens.
• The actual value of the Gnosis tokens is 13 million USD (this is all of the actual money brought in by the investors) divided by 10 million tokens. That means each individual token now has a factual value of 1.3 USD.

As of now, the net result on the auction pariticipants investment is

-95 %

---

Could a Development Team of a "Prediction Market" evaluate this result based on this kind of Auction Model ?!

If Yes, i am curious to see, what they call their "Wisdom of the Crowd"....

(rethinking) Gnosis Whitepaper
https://gnosis.pm/resources/default/pdf/gnosis_whitepaper.pdf

---

Be Aware, Be Patient, Be Prudent !

---