Stop fretting about general election polling 8 months out.

in #general2 months ago

image.png

They are practically useless at this stage. They average like 5-10 point variation this far out, which in a race that is close to tied is basically the entire election.

Here's the current polling map translated to the electoral map to further show this. A 5-10 point swing in these states could make this almost identical to the 2020 election result. Or vice versa almost identical to the 2016 election result.

There's an eternity left in the race.

image.png

Polls for the general election get more accurate closer to the election. Basically from the summer onward.

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