Around 2011, the retro game collecting market exploded and games for pretty much any console (especially Nintendo systems and cartridge-based systems) went through the roof. The average NES game increased by 300% from $7 in 2011 to a crazy $23 by 2016.

This market was only made worse once resellers and flippers got into the game by buying up games anywhere they could get them and reselling them for a profit, which became a self-fulfilling cycle of increasing prices. There's even evidence of resellers buying games from other resellers, marking them up and reselling them to be bought by even more resellers or panicked collectors trying to get a certain game before the price extends beyond what they're willing to pay for it.

However, I think we've finally reached the peak of the current retro game market. Here's why.

#1 Supply is outpacing demand

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Over the past 6-8 years, we've seen this dramatic increase in prices as collectors fight it out for the games they want on their shelves. However at this point it seems that most collectors are getting to the point where they're satisfied with their collections and are buying less. Some are getting out of the hobby altogether and selling their collections which throws even more supply into the market.

#2 The number of people who can pay these crazy prices is exhausted

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There's a tiny market of people who are dedicated enough to spend $1,000 on a Little Samson or $25k to get one of the few copies of Nintendo World Championships. As that market of collectors get what they want, there's fewer people willing to pay those crazy prices and those holding inventory have to start dropping prices until they can find some willing buyers.

#3 Retro game stores are starting to fail

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With the rise in the popularity of retro gaming, we also saw video game stores with a focus on retro games popping up everywhere. I don't have solid data, but at least anecdotally it seems that these stores are starting to close as fast as they opened up. Several retro game stores in my area have had to close, including one in my city that was open for just 2 months before shuttering its doors.

Let's take a look at some data

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Pricecharting.com is the most popular resource for tracking the prices of video games, so let's take a look at some overall console price trends to see where they're headed:

8/16-bit consoles

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These all share about the same pattern. A modest rise that started in 2010, a strong increase in 2012 that continued until 2016 when we saw a big spike that seemed to have mostly held and leveled out over the past 18 months.

Late 90's consoles

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While Nintendo always holds their prices better than other systems, these seem to have mostly dropped from their 2017 highs. Wether the prices for these consoles will continue to increase as that younger demographic ages into the nostalgia for these systems will be seen starting about 5 years from now. Being the first generation of 3D games is a mark against them though, as many games from this era have not aged well, which limits their appeal to collectors who don't have much nostalgia for these systems.

If you 're looking to get into Playstation or Saturn, now might be a good time to get started. If nostalgia bites this generation like it did the last, we'll see prices for these games start increasing very soon.

Atari, just for reference

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Atari seems to have leveled off a long time ago. Keep in mind, that it was a collectors market long before the current one, so most of the excitement and nostalgia for this console peaked years ago. However, this does produce a model we can examine when trying to predict where the prices of the next generation of games is headed.

So if the Atari chart is a reflection of price trends for the collectors market, the NES/SNES era is entering that same territory now. Those of us who grew up with those consoles seem to be at around the 2013 price level compared to the Atari market, which correlates to the ages of those consoles and the demographic who grew up with them.

In conclusion

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As far as the NES/SNES/Genesis libraries are concerned, I'm confident that the bulk of those games are likely at their price peaks. If you've been thinking about paring down your collection, now might be a better time than later. Conversely, if you want to get into collecting for these systems I feel that prices are going to start coming down over the next few years.

So do you think that retro game prices have peaked? Let's discuss!

Thanks for reading. As always, upvotes, resteems and comments are appreciated!

^{Cover Image Source: Twinfinite}