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RE: What's a Minnow to do? The Game Theory of Steem, Part 4

in #gametheory8 years ago

Thanks for the shout out on my reply on part three. Two comments: One, I may create a post on working out the "vote-your-conscious" impact as I can't stop thinking about it. And two, on your question: Did I "rig the game" and set up my level-k model in some way that guaranteed I'd get the same result?

I started to write a comment questioning Type-1 being overly pessimistic about the preferences of future voters. I was still thinking puppies and kittens. If Type-1 voters believe that preferences over any significant amount of time are 50/50, then a rational Type-1 player is almost always incented to vote their preference. (50% of vi + P is more than 50% of P if we are calculating potential payouts at the time of voting). However, I realize your example here is much more complicated in that there are multiple choices (or posts) to chose from, so the pessimism of the Type-1 voter is warranted.

I think your analysis further supports (if we are to believe we are rational actors to any degree) the idea that there is a value to the voter in voter their preference. Otherwise the first post to gain any advantage would always skyrocket to the top. I'd love to see some empirical analysis on Steem data on whether such a tipping point exists!!!

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Definitely, write the conscience post! I don't have a ton of SP, but I'll promote your post where I can.

So you're right - assuming pessimism here is rigging the game a bit. See my reply to @jholmes91 on this post; basically, if the Type-1 voter can put one of her favorites into a tie, and she believes that other voters like her preference also, then her best response may be to vote her favorite since in expectation (given her prior beliefs of others' preferences), it will win.

I assumed pessimism for 2 reasons:

  1. It's easier.
  2. I'm skeptical of the idea that people are Bayesian decision-makers! There seems to be a lot of empirical evidence that they are not; see Khaneman and friends and Prospect Theory.

I have a hunch that your model of vote-your-conscience could act as a proxy for assuming some sort of more-complicated belief structure. If I really want to vote for what I like, that's at least a little bit like believing that others are going to vote for it. But it tells a cleaner story and is easier to analyze, which I think is valuable.

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