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RE: What's a Minnow to do? The Game Theory of Steem, Part 4
I am curious to see if the price guesses are a good contrarian indicator as is usually the case with "retail" data. problem is that the community probably has a pretty high density of professionals so it might actually end up being a positive correlation
You're saying the correlation is uaually negative? For what value of "usually?" If enough people know the trick, it would get priced in, right?
retail sentiment is usually negatively correlated. basically if everybody "knows" something is going to happen, the opposite does as that was already priced in by the people who figured things out before everybody knows.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=228144
http://www.businessinsider.com/contrarian-indicators-signal-buy-stocks-2015-9