Statistical Analysis Wednesday 5th September

in #gambling5 years ago

Lingfield 1.40

9/2 Molly Jones, 5/1 Glyder, 6/1 Alaskan Bay,
6/1 Pavlichenko, 7/1 Go Sandy, 8/1 Culloden, Nuzha,
10/1 Midnight Guest, 12/1 Celerity, 14/1 Barnsdale.

5f Handicap
Horses rated 0-50
Doesn't get much lower than this

Ideally I wanted a couple of things
Numbers that are very competitive
Among the best in the race

Recent runs important as well
Ideally at least 2 runs since August

Nuzha didn't offer that
As a filly with a 72 day absence
Alaskan Bay is also a filly
She's raced just once in 83 days

Pavlichenko is the least experienced
Has to run from Stall 10 of 10 as well
My main worry with him is numbers
His Racing Post Ratings are very low
Doesn't show much evidence of class

Looking at available options
Wanting 2 + runs since August
And numbers that are competitive
GLYDER is the strongest profile

On last time out Racing Post Ratings
GLYDER has a 7lbs edge on the field
His 2nd at Beverley last time
Was better than most of these offer
This horse has been running herself fit
She just looks stronger than most

GLYDER is weak in the market
Smelling unpleasant at the moment
Warning Bells are ringing here

CULLODEN is the class horse
But his 2 runs after a break were modest

MIDNIGHT GUEST is the saver

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet GLYDER 7/2

£1.50 Win Bet MIDNIGHT GUEST 13/2

Bath 2.30

11/4 Red Alert, 7/2 Dream For Life, 4/1 Jaganory,
5/1 Babyfact, 7/1 Perfect Symphony,
10/1 Dreamboat Annie, 12/1 Tawaafoq.

5f Handicap
Low grade race
You can make a case for many of them
If you are prepared to go back in time
I quite like the weights here

RED ALERT rated 75
Has just done a Racing Post Rating of 81
PERFECT SYMPHONY rated 71
Looks the fittest horse in the race
These two horses rated 75 and 71
Only face rivals rated 64 or lower
This suggests a little class edge here
If we back both horses
Corner the class horses in the race
The horses we are taking on
All returned modest recent numbers

Selection

£8 Win RED ALERT 9/4

£2 Win PERFECT SYMPHONY 5/1

Wolverhampton 6.20

9/4 Extreme Force, 5/1 Luxor, Madkhal, 7/1 Sosume,
10/1 Courageux, 10/1 East Coast Swing, Fintas,
12/1 Rare Emerald, 20/1 Antiguan Duchess,
20/1 Drummer Jack, 33/1 Kyllachy Princess,
33/1 Slainte, 66/1 Broughtons Flare.

2yo Maiden over 6f
Probably 4 that can take this
No obvious negatives from those
LUXOR and EXTREME FORCE
Come from the same Windsor race
Either could be legitimate selections
MADKHAL interests me most

Watched his Leicester run
Warm race and he started favourite
He missed the break that day
Despite that he came through to lead
Clearly failed to stay the 7th furlong
The ground was softer than advertised
His sire's record supports the view
This horse should improve on the sand

Selection

MADKHAL 9/4

Win Bet

Wolverhampton 7.25

11/8 Dixieland Diva, 2/1 Come On Bear,
4/1 Bubbly, 10/1 Always A Drama, 20/1 How's Lucy,
33/1 Musical Fire

7f Novice for fillies
Looks a race between 3 horses
Always A Drama could pop up
But probably unlikely and a lot to prove

COIME ON BEAR is unraced
His sire Dandy Man is unconvincing
His unraced horses over 7f + are 2-60
All 31 that were fillies were beaten
COME ON BEAR now the 32nd to try
Taking on horses with 2-3 runs
May just be too much for her on debut

BUBBLY 5/2 is a positive
DIXIELAND DIVA 11/8 also shortlistable
Both horses have similar numbers
DIXIELAND DIVA a slight preference
Could be a nicer type Physically
Watching both races preferred him

Selection

DIXIELAND DIVA 11/8

Win Bet

Gowran Park 7.40

9/4 Davids Charm, 3/1 Days Without End, 6/1 Calgath,
6/1 Conron, 8/1 Backsheesh, 10/1 Marine One,
16/1 Kingston Girl, 20/1 Slainte And Thanks, Talsara,
33/1 Eagle Crag, 66/1 Bluebells For Love.

Maiden over 1m 6f
Open to 4 year olds +

Some of these have stamina doubts
Some are short of recent runs as well

BACKSHEESH is a 4yo filly
She comes from a Bumper
Maiden races
Any Distance
Any time of year
Since 2007
Fillies aged 4
Coming from a bumper
Have a 1-138 record in them
BACKSHEESH doesn't offer enough

She gets extra points for winning last time
But none her age have done this yet
CALGATH has raced once in 315 days
Could be in danger of bouncing
DAVID'S CHARM has positives
His flat numbers are not impressive

DAYS WITHOUT END looks safer
His numbers are better than his rivals
Better than they may need to be
To win a standard 1m 6f maiden race

Selection

DAYS WITHOUT END 9/4-5/2

Win Bet

Wolverhampton 8.25

10/11 Let's Be Happy, 7/4 Secratario,
14/1 Endean, 20/1 Miniature Daffodil,
33/1 Sea Tea Dea, 50/1 Rum Ration

12f Claiming race

With Endean offering modesty
This should may be a direct match

LET'S BE HAPPY a 4yo filly
SECRATARIO a 3yo gelding

LET'S BE HAPPY has better numbers
Understandable with having more runs
I thought her profile was safer as well

SECRATARIO ran in France over further
He has to drop down 3 furlongs today
If you look at his sire Kendargent
He's bred just 2 winners over 11f + (2-42)
Both were older horses that him
The sire's 3yo's over 1m 3f + are 0-18

In most areas I have looked at
LETS ME HAPPY just feels a bit safer

Selection

LETS ME HAPPY 4/5-10/11

Win Bet

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