Statistical Analysis Wednesday 29th August

in #gambling5 years ago

Catterick 3.30

4/1 Perisher, 5/1 Magical Effect, 6/1 Raselasad,
7/1 Portledge, 8/1 Regulator, 8/1 Iron Sky,
10/1 Our Charlie Brown, 10/1 Side Effect,
12/1 Inner Circle, 14/1 Katheefa, 25/1 Tavener

7f Handicap
I looked at 7f Catteick Handicaps
Those run between August and November
Horses aged 3
Under 6 career starts
Returned a 0-32 record in recent years
PERISHER is a 3yo with 4 runs
SIDE EFFECT a 3yo filly with 3 runs
Both share this 0-32 profile
Can't rule either out but on this track
I'd rather stay with more experienced
PORTLEDGE is hard to like
Absent twice as long as every horse
KATHEEFA has an unsafe profile
TAVENER is running low numbers
INNER CIRCLE is 0-13 in this class
May not have enough to take a Class 4
When without a recent run in a big field
REGULATOR doesn't feel safe enough
His jockey has never ridden here before
And is short on experience as well
IRON SKY is a 3yo down in trip
I can match him to some winners
But none that won at this track
With just 6 runs and drawn widest of all
On this course I'd rather look elsewhere

MAGICAL EFFECT has plenty to prove
He has never won over 7f before
His wins have come off 74 77 and 79
Yet today he has a handicap mark of 84
I don't like the combination offered
Of an older horse with no recent run
When having to carry 9st 12lbs as well

OUR CHARLIE BROWN is a positive
This is his best Course and Distance
Both 3 of his 5 career wins
And his top 4 Racing Post Ratings
Both all came in 7f Catterick races

RASELASAD is interesting
He has some decent numbers
That suggest well treated off 84
He may have found 8f too far
His last 3 runs were over a mile
No guarantee he stays that on pedigree

If you look at his last 3 races
All 3 runs were in a higher grade
Over a trip that may be beyond him
When he was still running himself fit

Similar 7f handicaps
August and September

Geldings aged 4
Coming from 8f
Running within 15 days
12-13-14-15-16 runs
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Return a 5-17 record in these races
RASELASAD shares this profile

He has a good profile and narrative
He has strong numbers as well
He looks the interesting bet

Selection

RASELASAD 5/1
£4.25 Each Way

OUR CHARLIE BROWN
£1.50 Win Bet 6/1

Bellewstown 4.05

5/2 Kendwar, 7/2 Lady Godiva, 4/1 Akua, 6/1 Zalzar,
10/1 Mountjubilee, 16/1 Desert Grey,
20/1 Cagey, 25/1 Noble Kingsway, 25/1 Sally Gap,
33/1 Bonnington Lass, Lady Savanah, 50/1 Gifted Lady,
50/1 Nite Irene, Paul Patterson, 66/1 Annagassan.

8f Claiming Maiden

These races are very rare
Only 3 have been run August-September
This could be a 6 horse race

LADY GODIVA is the fittest horse
She has the shortest absence
She has raced twice this month
Thats more than any other horse

LADY GODIVA appeals each way
When you consider some of the issues
And the flaws in some of the others

Horses with under 9 runs
Had a 0-25 record in these races
DUBAI RAINBOW has raced once
Doesn't strike me as a positive

ZALZAR has raced once in 13 months
She could easily be underraced as a filly
AKUA has raced once in 11 months
Another very short of recent runs

KENDWAR loks an obvious danger
But he also has some factors to overcome
He has a difficult draw to start with
He's also had just 1 run in 107 days
Lady Godiva has 6 runs in that time period

MOUNTJUBILEE is a filly with 4 runs
Inexperienced and has plenty to find

There are enough doubts about these
To go with LADY GODIVA each way
In the hope that her superior fitness
Will be just enough to win this race

Selection

LADY GODIVA 3/1

Each Way

LINGFIELD 4.20

2/1 Unveiling, 11/4 Ventura Gold, 4/1 Blue Harmony,
6/1 Foxangel, 10/1 Mister Chips, 14/1 Mans Not Trot,
50/1 Wajdy.

3yo Claimer over 9f

UNVEILING is a filly absent 44 days

If I look at 3yo claiming races
Run during August and September
Fillies absent over 26 days are 1-52
Fillies absent over 38 days are 0-28
UNVEILING has this problem

MANS NOT TROT is unraced
Not a good idea to bet these types
MISTER CHIPS also too inexperienced

Not much between a few of these
FOXANGEL is short of runs this year
I like the experienced types
Who have recent runs and form

VENTURA GOLD 5/2
BLUE HARMONY 11/2

This may or may not be relevant
But it raises and issue for several

Sire Stats
Horses running over 9f +
Running on ground softer than good

UNVEILING'S sire is 0-10 with his runners
VENTURA GOLD sire is 0-8 with his runners
FOXANGEL sire is 1-20 with his runners

VENTURA GOLD's sire Red Jazz
Has a 0-15 record over 8f + on softer ground

BLUE HARMONY's sire in contrast
Has bred 18 winners in these circumstances

Because one or two have questions to answer
Regarding stamina on soft ground
BLUE HARMONY could be the best option
Despite a modest run last time out

Selection

Option 1
£7 Win Bet BLUE HARMONY 4/1- 9/2
£3 Win Bet VENTURA GOLD 5/2

Option 2
BLUE HARMONY 4/1 - 9/2
Each Way

Difficult to know which Option is bet
Had the horse ran better last time
Option 2 would have been better
I will still go with Option 2 though
But not sure which was safer

Bellewstown 6.05

7/4 Nitro Boost, 7/2 Darkash, 6/1 Backpfeifengesicht,
8/1 Arabic Channel, 12/1 Compton's Finale, Montalvan,
16/1 Betty's Heart, Dottie Vallens, 20/1 Sunset Nova,
25/1 Mrs Browne's Girl, 33/1 Irregardless, Stay In,
33/1 Tessiesee, 50/1 Ebony Belle, Frischs Joy.

2yo Maiden over 5f

NITRO BOOST ran well on her debut
She looked nippy and could easily win
But she is only a once raced filly
She faces male horses with more experience
Who also have decent numbers on side

BACKPFEIFENGESICHT is a player
He has experience and recent runs

ARABIC CHANNEL has ability
He has 6 runs the last just 7 days ago
Ran well when 2nd at Carlisle over 6f
The unraced horse that beat him there
Was clearly well fancied and usefull
He's never raced over 5f but it could suit
I think he has every chance

DARKASH has better numbers
Experienced and running very well

NITRO BOOST as a once raced filly
May win but she faces 3 horses
Who have considerably more experience
If she can beat all 3 she will have done well
I'd rather side with the experienced horses

I could bet any of 3 each way

Darkash
Backpfeifengesicht
Arabic Channel

Decided to stagger the staking
And cover all 3 of them instead

DARKASH the obvious e/w bet
Judging by the morning markets
But that could all change later on

Selection

£3.75 Each Way ARABIC CHANNEL 10/1

£2.50 Win Bet DARKASH 3/1

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many thanks as always. following your tips @shutthefrontdoor

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