Statistical Analysis Wednesday 22th August

in #gambling6 years ago

York 1.55

8/1 Culturati, 10/1 Tis Marvellous, 12/1 El Astronaute,
12/1 Fashion Queen, 14/1 Copper Knight, Fendale,
14/1 Final Venture, 14/1 Gracious John, 14/1 Tanasoq,
14/1 Tommy Taylor, 16/1 Boom The Groom, Carlton Frankie,
16/1 Holmeswood, Line Of Reason, 20/1 Midnight Malibu,
20/1 Spoof, Watchable, 25/1 Eastern Impact, Harome,
33/1 Koditime.

Class 2 Handicap over 5f

9 Past renewals
34 similar races elsewhere

Look at the last 3 renewals

The 1-2-3-4 in 2017 were drawn 8 5 2 16
The 1-2-3-4 in 2016 were drawn 5 2 19 4
The 1-2-3-4 in 2015 were drawn 5 3 7 6

There is a low draw bias here

York 5f races since 2015
There are 76 of these races
Horses drawn 12 or more are 2-177
Having a high draw is a big problem

The following horses
All had stall 13 and higher
And should be disadvantaged

Koditime - Spoof - Tanasoq
Holmeswood - Midnight Malibu
Watchable - El Astronaute - Culturati

York 5f races since 2011
Horses drawn 17 or higher
Have a 0-93 record since then

WATCHABLE is drawn 17
EL ASTRONAUTE is drawn 18
CULTURATI is drawn 19
SPOOF is drawn 20

EL ASTRONAUTE needs a career best
CULTURATI has raced once in 14 months

TANASOQ is drawn 14 and not safe enough
Given he's never won off this mark before

SPOOF is a 3yo absent 67 days
Horses aged 3
Have a 0-12 record in this race
KODITINE is a 3yo who ran badly last time
Both are drawn 13 and higher
So look horses to avoid

WATCHABLE is badly drawn
His best numbers are over 7f
MIDNIGHT MALIBU is a badly drawn mare
Her best win came off a mark of 86
She has a mark of 92 in this race

FASHION QUEEN is a 4yo filly
She has just 3 races in 2018
All her rivals bar 1 have more runs
She has raced just once in 102 days
Drawn on the inside in Stall 1 not for me

The 9 winners of this race
All ran within the previous 28 days

34 similar races in August
Horses absent over 6 weeks
Have a 0-50 record in these races

FINAL VENTURE has 74 days off
The longest absence in the race

FERNDALE has 40 days off
Absent longer than all past winners of this
He's never won in this class before
Never won off his current mark either
EASTERN IMPACT isn't running well enough
HAROME's numbers are beatable
CARLTON FRANKIE ran 4 days ago
Her 6 length defeat doesn't impress
When she has never won off this rating
And has never won in this class before

LINE OF REASON is an 8yo
We have had older winners of this
He is well drawn with a recent run
So I can't rule him out at all
But not automatically drawn to 8yo's
GRACIOUS JOHN has positives
His best runs have been on the sand
But he is proven in class on the ground
I don't like the stable much though
And he is 0-11 in fields of 11 or more

Shortlist

HOLMESWOOD is drawn 15
That is higher than ideal
But Happy to be a little flexible
If you look at the 2013 winner of this
That winner (Bogart) was very similar
His profile was extremely close to him
And he also won from Stall 15 as well
HOLMESWOOD has to be considered

TOMMY TAYLOR has a recent run
Passes my main angles as well
But has never raced short of 6 furlongs
His sire has bred 3 winners over 5f
They were all in far lower grade
None of them were aged 3 or higher

COPPER KNIGHT is shortlistable
No strong angles against him
But last time out Racing Post Ratings
Show him some way down the list

BOOM THE GROOM is a 7yo
Good draw and recent run reassuring
He certainly has the class to win
Won this race in 2016 off a mark of 102
This year he has a rating of only 89
The reason is no wins since his 2016 win
He is on a losing run of 23 since that win
His numbers show he is not as good as 2016

TIS MARVELLOUS is a 4yo
He won at the Shergar Cup meeting
He has topweight and career high mark
But his last Racing Post Rating
Was not only a career best run
But the best last time figure in the race
If you look at the 34 similar races
No horse won off higher than 104
All 9 rated 105 or more were beaten
He fails this but only by 1 pound
None aged 4 won rated more than 101
Only 6 tried but none of these won
The other little angle to consider in this
Horses from the Shergar Cup are 0-16
TIS MARVELLOUS fails a lot of little angles
But has that powerful last time out figures

It is the numbers that sway me

If you look at recent winners
And their Racing Post Ratings

Most came here with 100 + ratings
I would be far happier
With a horse that had that quality

Last years winner had 8st 13lbs
That was the lowest weight past winners had

Horses in this York race
Who carried 8st 12lbs or less
Have a 0-60 record in past renewals
That has to be a concern
For some of the lighter weights

BOOM THE GROOM has this problem
HOLMESWOOD only has 8st 10lbs as well
He comes from the wrong half of the weight
And has to do that from a negative draw
I did initially like him as an improver
But this angles does force a rethink

Racing Post Ratings
Last Time out figures

TIS MARVELLOUS achieved a 109 rating
None of his rivals came within 5lbs of that

Only 3 horses managed a 100 + rating
One (Gracious John) he beat easily last week
Another (Fashion Queen) is underraced
The third (Tanasoq) needs a career best

TIS MARVELLOUS initially worried me
I felt he was a potential saver at best
Now I feel he has to be part of the staking
My only worry is the race coming too soon

And it is for that reason
That I have added two savers

Selection

£4 Each Way TIS MARVELLOUS 10/1

£1 Win Bet TOMMY TAYLOR 11/1

£1 Win Bet HOLMESWOOD 10/1

Killarney 2.00

5/2 Karasi, 4/1 Planet Venus, 5/1 Norway,
11/2 Third World, 9/1 Biltmore, Excelcius,
9/1 Whitsunday Islands, 20/1 Merida,
33/1 Finding Nero.

2yo Maiden over 8f

KARASI has the best numbers
NORWAY is the market mover

KARASI is not safe enough
I don't want a 2yo by Excellebration
Running over 8f on his second starts
There are stamina question marks

NORWAY around 5/2
Could be an each way bet
There is a lack of evidence here
Another option is this

£7.50 NORWAY
£1.25 THIRLD WORLD 13/2
£1.25 EXCELCIUS 13/2

I just felt Karasi was vulnerable
Leaving a race where we had to guess
Any number of multiple staking options

York 2.25

2/1 Watan, 11/4 Broome, 5/1 Persian Moon,
8/1 Phoenix Of Spain, 9/1 James Street,
12/1 Swissterious, 16/1 Pogo, Ventura Ocean.

The Acomb Stakes
7f Group race for 2yo's

No strong opinion
I'd avoid horses from 6f races
In the last 20 years just 2 won
They have an overall 2-49 record
All 29 since 2006 have failed

VENTURA OCEAN comes from 6f
JAMES STREET also does this
WATAN has the same problem

Horses from 6f with 1 career start
Have an overall 1-19 record (2005)
WATAN is trying to be the second
Given none came from 6f in 13 years
And others have far more experience
Inclined to go each way against him

Shortlist

BROOME
PERSIAN MOON
PHOENIX OF SPAIN

BROOME is from Aidan O'Brien
Stableform worries a lot of people
He also drops from a mile race
The 2012 winner dropped from 7f 135yds
He also has 2 career starts like Broome

PERSIAN MOON has every chance
Not sure he wants ground this fast

On Racing Post Ratings
PERSIAN MOON beats Phoenix Of Spain

On Breeding stats
PHOENIX OF SPAIN beats Persian Moon
One of only 2 sires in the race
That have bred winners of similar races

PHOENIX OF SPAIN just shades it
With the promise of more improvement
There is also room for a saver as well

Selection

£4 Each Way PHOENIX OF SPAIN 5/1

£2 Win Bet BROOME 4/1

Carlisle 2.40

5/2 Arabic Channel, 7/2 Cheerupmylove,
4/1 Collegian, 13/2 Samlesbury, 9/1 Chasing The Rain,
10/1 Hello Youmzain, 14/1 Cognac Blue, Grey Appeal,
50/1 Boll Weevil, Vigorito, 66/1 Leebellnsummerbee.

6f Maiden

There is strength in depth here
And probably 5 potential winners
Given that Samlesbury is badly drawn

ARABIC CHANNEL is my choice
I like that extra experience here
Didn't think he stayed 7f on soft last time

One of those markets
That ring one or two bells
ARABIC CHANNEL is around 11/4
I'd have expected him to be shorter

On paper 11/4 each way
Looks an excellent bet to me
Given a few lack much experience
Nothing would surprise me here

ARABIC CHANNEL is my preference

York 3.00

7/4 Cross Counter, 9/4 Kew Gardens,
5/1 Wells Farhh Go, 7/1 The Pentagon,
14/1 Old Persian, Sevenna Star,
20/1 M C Muldoon, 25/1 Nelson,
40/1 Zabriskie.

Great Voltigeur Stakes
Trial race for the St Leger

Covered this race yesterday
Some will be having prep runs
There are other unknown factors

THE PENTAGON takes his chance
Far from dismissed from the St Leger
Aidan suggests he may need the run
Will be keeping a close eye on him

WELLS FARHH GO also runs
I will be happy if he wins this
He is currently on pole position
For the final selection in the St Leger

We have decent multiples on him
Future Betting Angles staked him too
So hoping for a good run in this race
But this is not really his prime target
Which can be said for a few of these

CROSS COUNTRY is my choice
Broke the track record at Goodwood
If he had been a colt not a gelding
No doubt he'd be the St Leger favourite
His Racing Post Rating of 118 last time
Was the highest figure any achieved

CROSS COUNTRY is my selection
But I want a second bet in the race
OLD PERSIAN is too big at 16/1

We backed him when he won at Ascot
I opposed him in the Irish Derby
That was only 8 days after Ascot
Statistics show this was a big problem
His Ascot win was a career best
He was on an obvious upward curve
So if we ignore his Irish Derby run
Which was far from a poor performance
It was only 2lbs less than his Ascot run
Ignore that and he should be a saver

Selection

£9 Win Bet CROSS COUNTRY 11/8-6/4

£1 Win Bet OLD PERSIAN 14/1

York 3.35

7/4 Poet's Word, 5/2 Roaring Lion,
4/1 Saxon Warrior, 12/1 Benbatl, Without Parole,
14/1 Latrobe,16/1 Thunder Snow
33/1 Thundering Blue.

Juddmonte Stakes

This does require guesswork
For starters in the Eclipse Stakes
SAXON WARROR + ROARING LION
Had nothing between them that day
We can't know who will come out best

Statistically in the Eclipse Stakes
SAXON WARRIOR had the worst profile
I'd be inclined to upgrade that run
He seems a plausable each way choice
But O'Brien is not in the best of form
Who knows whether he will run his best
POET'S WORD won the King George
Good trial race and has every chance

On Racing Post Ratings
POET'S WORD (128) is 5lbs clear
He deserves to be favourite in this
Given his numbers and the 3yo's this year
But he is a short price though

SAXON WARRIOR does appeal a bit
Many have that 10f would suit him best
The only time he has raced over 10 furlongs
He was trying something very difficult
To win a Group 1 race after a very recent run

SAXON WARRIOR each way is an option

SAXON WARRIOR Win bet
POETS WORD Saver
Another very legitimate option
BENBATL doesn't have to improve much

Don't think you can have a strong view
Nothing against any of the main horses
Going to stagger the staking in this

£5 Win Bet SAXON WARRIOR 11/2
£4 Win Bet POETS WORD 6/4
£1 Win Bet BENBATL 9/1

Killarney 4.10

4/1 Hatton Cross, 9/2 Glib Speech, 7/1 Storm Ranger,
15/2 Acari, Time Queen, 8/1 Path Of Silver, 9/1 New Identity,
12/1 Fox Dream, King Torus, 18/1 La Cumparsita,
25/1 Alpine Pass, The Bittern Cry, 33/1 Northern Surprise,
40/1 Getaway Queen, 50/1 Kilcoran.

8f Apprentice Handicap
Only going with a shortlist

I am against high draws
Stalls 13 + are 0-42 since 2014
I am against 3 year olds
Who are 0-20 in similar races here
I'd avoid horses with absences
I could shortlist only 4 horses
Which are in no particular order

STORM RANGER 6/1
ACARI 9/1
PATH OF SILVER 8/1
HATTON CROSS 7/1

Killarney 4.45

9/2 Alwarda, 5/1 Military Hill, 6/1 Rosin Box,
8/1 Emperor Bob, Tennesse Waltz, 9/1 Danehill Quest,
12/1 Paved With Gold, Templemary Boy, 16/1 Bouquet Garni
16/1 Intense Starlet, Quite Subunctious, 20/1 Cairdiuil,
25/1 Intense Stylist, Shoellen, U S Navy Seal.

8f Handicap
Only going with a shortlist
Based on the 4.10 statistics
Which are valid to be used again

I am against high draws
Stalls 13 + are 0-42 since 2014
I am against 3 year olds
Who are 0-20 in similar races here
I'd avoid horses with absences
I could shortlist only 5 horses
Which are in no particular order

Tennesse Waltz
Paved With Gold
Bouquet Garni
Military Hill
Rosin Box

Kempton 5.45

4/5 Lively Lydia, 7/2 Rock Up In Style, 5/1 Molly Mai,
10/1 Illywhacker, Rajy, 12/1 Pop The Cork, Sir Busker,
33/1 Loving Life.

2yo Novice over 7f
LIVELY LYDIA will be hard to beat
ROCK UP IN STYLE is unsafe
He is unraced sired by Showcasing
Unraced 2 year olds by this sire
Running over 7f or more
Have a 0-29 record so far
MOLLY MAI is a filly with 2 runs
But her numbers are well behind
LIVELY LYDIA has the best numbers
Don't see a case for opposing her

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