Statistical Analysis Tuesday 21st August

in #gambling6 years ago

Hamilton 4.20

11/4 Handsome Bob, 3/1 Kitty's Cove,
4/1 Flying Focus, 13/2 Liars Corner,
16/1 Judith Gardenier, 20/1 Hazy Manor,
25/1 Ruler Of The Nile, 33/1 Spokesperson.

12f Handicap
Low quality race

Judith Gardenier - 701 days off
Spokesperson - 392 days off
Happy to avoid this pair

HAZY MANOR looks underraced this year
Nasty absence and 1 bad run since April
RULER OF THE NILE has fitness issues
Doesn't look like he has hit form or fitness

Hamilton 12f races
10 or more runners
Since 2011
Show horses drawn 1-2-3
Have a 0-60 record

Stalls 1-2-3 may not be helpful here

FLYING FOCUS is drawn 2
Not the best place to be on the outside
There has been good money for him
He is not without some promise
But only 7 career runs before today
And the draw won't make that easier

Stop Press - 3 non runners spoil this

Look at his trainer R J Osborne
Very modest career record of 1-68
That does not fill me with confidence
FLYING FOCUS stayed on well last time
But that was over 9f and this is a 12f race
He is going up 3 furlongs in distance
Draw and Stable among things worrying me

LIARS CORNER is sired by Zoffany
A sires whose runners over 12f +
When racing on ground softer than good
Have a modest 1-45 record
Can't rule him out despite that
But he only has 5 career starts
Never started under 25/1 in any of them
Ran well last time and could still win
But he looks a smaller horse as well
Drawn 3 would not be the best of draws
When those drawn 1-2-3 were 0-60 since 2011
I just think there is a safer choice here

HANDSOME BOB won last time
KITTYS COVE was back in 4th place

I backed HANDSOME BOB in that race
I wasn't certain he would stay 12f
But said on the day felt he was thrown in
He came from last to 1st to win that
KITTYS COVE was couple of lengths away
HANDSOME BOB didn't do much wrong
He was a bit uneasy on the eye early on
But he stayed on well and looked ok in the end
I would rather trust him to follow up
Than side with Kittys Cove to reverse the form
KITTYS COVE doesn't feel safe enough
I don't like the combination she offers
Of having only 4 runs
Combined with a short 7 day absence

Handicaps over 10f and longer
Any Time of year
Run in Class 5 and lower
Show fillies aged 3
Under 6 career starts
Running within the last 9 days
Have so far returned a 0-16 record

HANDSOME BOB would be my preference
To confirm that form and beat her again

Selection

HANDSOME BOB 5/2

Win Bet

Sligo 6.10

11/10 Speirling, 4/1 Yeats Mardy, 7/1 Kalamkan,
8/1 Varkhann, 10/1 Rain In Spain, 14/1 Subset,
20/1 McCrackens Gate, Siamsa Cois Laoi,
25/1 Wicket, 33/1 Devine Star, 50/1 Mollys Boxty.

Maiden Hurdle over 2m 5f

SPEIRLING ran at Galway
He was 4th in a hot maiden hurdle
His Racing Post Rating of 120
Leaves him comfortably clear of this
He should be able to win this race

YEARS MARDY is a 5yo mare
Doesn't look the biggest of horses
Her numbers are well behind the favourite
RAIN IN SPAIN may not be fit enough
VARKHANN looks far too risky
His trainer has a 1-141 career record

SPEIRLING is my choice
He looks the only viable option

Selection

SPEIRLING 4/6

Annoyed he shortened from Evens

Newton Abbot 7.30

5/2 Ayelya, 9/2 Bitter Virtue, 5/1 Hoponandsee,
5/1 Kiruna Peak, 6/1 Jazz Thyme, 10/1 Versifier,
12/1 Kristal Hart, 25/1 Skylark Lady,
33/1 Nenergy's Quest.

Mares Handicap Hurdle 2m1f

If you look at mares handicaps
Run in August over any distance
None of the winners were aged 4
Only 12 tried but none of them won
KIRUNA PEAK is a 4yo with topweight
She is too risky coming off a poor run

Fitness is a question mark here
AYELYA has raced just once in a year
One heavy defeat since August 2017
She has moved to a progressive stable
But wasn't expensive at just 6k
And she is not safe without more runs

SKYLARK LADY - 1 run in 13 months
HOPONANDSEE - 1 run since 2016

Nenergy's Quest has 275 days off
Jazz Thyme has 308 days off

BITTER VIRTUE also has an absence
But she has upgraded stable
And I don't have a problem with her profile
Last years winner of this race
Was also a 7yo seasonal debutant like her
VERSIFIER needs to be shortlisted too

Shortlist

VERSIFIER 4/1
BITTER VIRTUE 4/1

Suggestion

BITTER VIRTUE 4/1 Saver Bet

VERSIFIER 4/1 Main Bet

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