Statistical Analysis Thursday 6th September

in #gambling5 years ago

Sedgefield 2.00

5/1 Midnight Queen, 11/2 Handy Hollow, 6/1 Dan Gun,
7/1 Our Morris, 8/1 The Boola Bee, 10/1 Indian Reel,
10/1 Lincoln County, Simply Lucky, 12/1 Shaiyzar,
14/1 Court Baloo, 16/1 Wyfield Rose, 20/1 News For Pascal,
33/1 Hard Knocks.

Handicap hurdle over 3m3f

Not familiar with these horses
But the 11 similar races in September
Do point to a particular type winning

All 11 winners were aged 5-11
DAN GUN is rejected as a 4yo
All 11 winners came from 2m 5f +
HANDY HOLLOW fails this
All 11 winners ran within 25 days
OUR MORRIS has the longest absence
He also pulled up last time out
All 11 came from Handicap Hurdles
All 11 finished their last race
All 11 had at least 5 hurdle runs
HARD KNOCKS fails this
THE BOOLA BEE only has 3 hurdle runs
COURT BALOO pulled up last time
There are more likely winners

One of the main issues in this race
How do horses from Chases get on
When dropping from fences to hurdles

INDIAN REEL does this
SHAIYZAR does this
MIDNIGHT QUEEN does this

Similar races
August and September
Horses from fences
Beaten last time
Have a modest 1-50 record
SHAIYZAR shares this profile
INDIAN REEL also fails this angle
Will INDIAN REEL stay this far
His sires hurdles beyond 3m are 0-25

MIDNIGHT QUEEN won a chase last time
But she is a mare and none like her won
She hasn't ran in a hurdle race in 14 months
Her best Racing Post Hurdle Rating is 74
Thats low and lower than her handicap mark
WYFILED ROSE is also a mare
Hammered 36 lengths last time out
Recent form is not good enough
First run for a new stable as well

SIMPLY LUCKY is risky
None came from Novice Handicaps like him
He has just taken a big stable downgrade
Just left Dan Skelton for a smaller stable
Having been sold for just over 2 grand

HANDY HOLLY ran over 2m 3f last time
This is almost a mile further than that race
Not the safest profile for a 5 year old

All things considered
LINCOLN COUNTY looks the one
The safest profile in the race
Passing all the major angles

Selection

LINCOLN COUNTY 8/1

Each Way

Sedgefield 2.30

6/4 Green Or Black, 13/8 Make My Heart Fly,
11/4 Lucca Lady, 33/1 Delightful Dame,
33/1 Lady Samback, 66/1 Haafaprincess.

Mares Novice Hurdle

Looks to be between 3 horses
Not completely sold on any of these

GREEN OR BLACK is sired by Zebedee
That sire has a stamina index of 6.6f
The sires hurdlers are just 1-79 so far
That puts me off him at a short price
When he is running over 2m 1f today

LUCCA LADY is an obvious choice
But the stables hurdlers are 4-132
None of these were as old as her
The stables hurdles short of 2m 5f
Have a horrible 0-76 career record
The stables hurdle runners
In Non Handicap Hurdles are 0-68
So do we really want to bet her
Against a Gordon Elliot horse

MAKE MY HEART FLY drops in trip
Coming from 3m to 2m 1f a bit radical
But won last time and the best stable
Given the doubts staying with her

Selection

MAKE MY HEART FLY 2/1- 9/4

Win Bet

Salisbury 3.50

15/8 Hello Bangkok, 4/1 Indigo Angel, 5/1 Heritage,
6/1 Zaula, 10/1 Gatria, 12/1 Starry Eyes, 14/1 Cambric,
16/1 Aubretia, Belle Chanel, Manuela De Vega,
33/1 Abuja, Come Back To Me, 50/1 Riverina.

7f Maiden

HELLO BANGKOK sets the standard
Stall 14 worries me about him
Salisbury 7f races since 2012
Horses drawn 13 or higher are 0-36
There were winners drawn high in 2011
But none since and it is a concern

INDIGO ANGEL - May not get home
His 7f run last time was in a slowly run race

ZAULA is unraced sired by Dark Angel
His unraced 2yo's on grass first time at 7f
Have a worrying 2-110 record now

I want to oppose the above pair

STARRY EYES is unraced drawn 12
That will take some doing here

Decided to buy the favourite out of the race
HERITAGE could easily improve
She is overpriced around 10/1-11/1-12/1

£5 Win HERITAGE 10/1 +

£5 Win HELLO BANGKOK Evens

Haydock 4.10

5/4 So Beloved 7/2 Salateen,
5/1 Mjjack, 16/1 Inshiraah,
16/1 Ultimate Avenue.

7f Conditions race

SO BELOVED has the highest rating
This does look a good opportunity for him
But he is an 8 year old
His last run wasn't that good
Racing Post Rating of 99 last time
SALATEEN did a 109 rating last time
Thats significantly higher
And he has a 5 day absence as well

This pair do look the fittest horses
There are others with question marks
MJJACK is a 4yo absent 131 days
Could win in a small field
Could equally need the race

I'd stay with fitter horses
And combine them in this way

Selection

£5 Win SALATEEN 7/2

£5 Win SO BELOVED 10/11

Carlisle 4.55

4/1 Tobeeornottobee, 9/2 Hard Solution, 7/1 March For Men,
8/1 Four Wheel Drive, 9/1 I'm Billy Murphy, Rum Lad,
10/1 Hey Jazzy Lady, 11/1 Mr Diamond, 12/1 Essenza,
12/1 Swiss Connection, 14/1 Majestic Appeal,
16/1 The Grey Zebedee.

5f Nursery

Both past winners had 4 + runs
I would like to stay with that principle
10 of the 12 winners have 4 + runs
The other 2 may be at a disadvantage
SWISS CONNECTION only has 3 runs
MARCH FOR MEN only has 3 runs
I'd rather have those extra runs
TOBEEORNOTTOBEE won last time
That was a low grade race
His numbers are consistently low
One of the higher weights may trump him
HEY JAZZY LADY has the same problem
ESSENZA is rejected on her draw
MR DIAMOND drops from 7f to 5f
Not enough positives in his profile

Positives

RUM LAD has a chance

I'M BILLY MURPHY hard to read
Slight concern he drops from 6f to 5f
When his damsire is Manduro

HARD SOLUTION is a positive
His Numbers are 62 58 70 66
So not sure he is well treated off 74
FOUR WHEEL DRIVE is a positive

I like the principle
Of low drawn experienced horses
Who come from higher in the weights
FOUR WHEEL DRIVE does offer this

Selection

FOUR WHEEL DRIVE 6/1

Each Way

Carlisle 5.30

5/2 Bugler Bob, 11/4 Liquid Lunch, 4/1 Northern Lyte,
7/1 Praxidice, 12/1 Zip, 14/1 Don Logan, 16/1 Flint Said No,
18/1 Charlie's Boy, 20/1 Slaithwaite, 25/1 George's Law,
33/1 Our Wynnie, Ugo Gregory, 66/1 Jagerbond,
100/1 Happy Hannah.

6f Novice for 2yo's

Go back to 2014
Carlisle 6f races
Horses drawn 11 or more
Have a 0-71 record
In races over 5f-6f
Horses drawn 11 + are 1-100
Those under 6 years old 0-59
NORTHERN LYTE is drawn 12
That looks higher than would be safe

Strongest options

LIQUID LUNCH
BULGER BOY

LIQUID LUNCH may be the one
Better drawn that Bugler Boy
Has slightly better numbers
Has an extra run behind him
You could actually bet both
I think that is the way to go

Selection

£7 Win Bet BULGER BOY 3/1

£3 Win Bet LIQUID LUNCH 2/1

Chelmsford 5.40

2/1 More Than Likely, 5/2 With Envy,
8/1 Croqueta, 10/1 Alban's Dream, Coastguard Watch,
20/1 Hector's Here, 25/1 Pageant Master.

6f Novice

MORE THAN LIKELY has done well
To have won twice already as a 2yo
Given she is only a cheap filly
Her wins were small field Brighton races
She does have the best numbers to be fair
But these are not progressing now
She steps back up in distance as well
Looks vulnerable to an improver
She is also unproven on the All weather
Her sires runners are 0-10 on sand so far

WITH ENVY is the most likely horse
To improve past the favourite

Selection

WITH ENVY 11/10

Win Bet

Chelmsford 6.10

9/2 Ghost Queen, 6/1 Calling The Wind, Storm Shelter,
7/1 Summa Force, 8/1 Duke Of Yorkie, Swan Street,
10/1 Big Ian, Merlin's Magic, 12/1 First Thought,
14/1 Singe Du Nord, 16/1 Mendeleev, Spring To Freedom,
66/1 Keston Warrior.

8f Nursery

If you look at similar races
Run during September - October
Horses with under 4 runs
Absent more than 35 days
Have a poor 2-117 record
Fillies doing this were 0-55
GHOST QUEEN has this problem
I don't want a filly absent 69 days
With just 3 career starts as well

DUKE OF YORKIE has experience
There are things I like about him
But 10th in the weights rated 52
He does not have much class
SINGE DU NORD is in the same boat
SPRING TO FREEDOM didn't appeal
Another in the wrong part of the weights
BIG IAN drops 4 grades from a listed race
Sounds good but these types rarely win
SWAN STREET is an unlikely stayer
SUMMA FORCE may not defy topweight
Expectations have been low so far
Starting huge prices from a big stable
Lacks the numbers to defy topweight
CALLING THE WIND is being nibbled
But his last run really looked laboured
He is work in progress may need time
Shortening based on trainer reputation
MERLINS MAGIC may need another run

FIRST THOUGHT has to prove stamina
And put a heavy defeat behind him

STORM SHELTER is a positive
Improved plenty on his previous start
And effective over conditions

Selection

STORM SHELTER 9/2

Each Way

Chelmsford 7.45

5/2 Enbihaar, Saint Diana, 3/1 Welsh Lord,
8/1 Trade Mission, 12/1 Leap Of Faith, 14/1 Cloudlam,
14/1 Imminent Approach, 25/1 Highfaluting, Maroon Bells,
33/1 Pivello, Visor, 100/1 Ifitsmeanttobe, Welsh Walls.

10f Novice

WELSH LORD is hardly safe
He has 329 days off for starters
He has to come from Stall 13 as well
Hard to judge that but not a positive
His sire's record is modest as well
With inexperienced types over this far
Just too many risks for me
ENBIHAAR is unraced from Gosden
The market is against this filly
Since 2009 races here over 8f +
Unraced horses are just 3-116
Those drawn 4 or higher are 1-84
ENBIHAAR drawn 9 didn't stand out

SAINT DIANA has 3 runs
She comes here with a 2-2-2 record
Improved her numbers each time
Racing Post Rating of 80 last time
The overall package has to be positive
Given the flaws her opponents have

SAINT DIANA has to be the selection
But it won't take much to beat her
She looks like an each way double bet

Selection

SAINT DIANA 6/4

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