Statistical Analysis Thursday 30th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Carlisle 1.40

11/4 King Of The Celts, 9/2 Decima,
5/1 Traditional Dancer, 8/1 Iberica Road,
9/1 In Focus, 10/1 Moon Over Rio, Zealous,
12/1 Purdey, 20/1 Bay Watch, 40/1 Monzino.

11f Amateur Riders Handicap

One of the surprising things here
There are 6 horses in this race
Who in the previous 9 months
Raced under 4 times in that period
They all look short of recent races

On a tough track on soft ground
And in an Amateur riders race
I would certainly want more runs

DECIMA is a good example
She is a filly with 1 run in 84 days
She has raced just 3 times in 10 months
Her sire has no wins over this far on soft
ZEALOUS is another short of runs
IN FOCUS is also underraced as well
MOON OVER RIO has 371 days off

Only 4 horses in this race
Have had enough runs this season

Traditional Dancer
Iberica Road
King Of The Celts

TRADITIONAL DANCER is hard to read
He's not run well on the flat in a long time
He is ridden by an inexperienced 18yo
He also has a high draw in Stall 10

Since the stalls were renumbered
There were only 12 races here over 11f
Horses drawn 9 or more are 0-42 in them
So we can argue that's not a good draw

IBERICA ROAD has 38 days off
Not ideal in an Amateur race
His sires runners over 11f + are 0-16

KINGS OF THE CELTS is a 10yo
Older than ideal but he has positives
He won 3 days ago over this distance
That is the shortest absence in the race
He has 3 runs since the start of August
Thats at least 2 more than amost all others
KINGS OF THE CELTS is the fittest horse

He is drifting in the market though
That does make me rethink
Years ago I'd have more on
These days I'd have less on

Selection

KINGS OF THE CELTS 4/1-7/2

Win Bet

Chelmsford 4.30

10/11 Lady Baker, 11/8 Maybe Today,
6/1 Dubawi Meeznah, 100/1 Sixties Secret.

Fillies Novice over 1m 5f

This is a 3 horse race
DUBAWI MEEZHAN is unraced

If I look at 3yo fillies since 2007
Who tried to win a race over this far
On their first ever start
At any time of year since 2007
All 52 that tried were beaten
None have done it so why should she
DUBAWI MEEZHAN is rejected

This is also interesting

June to December
Races over 1m 5f and more
Since 2007
Any race during these months

3yo fillies
1 career start
Coming from 1m 4f or shorter
Return a 0-49 record in these races
MAYBE TODAY shares this 0-49 record
She's raced only once
Yet has to go up 3 furlongs today

Statistically one one horse is safe

Selection

LADY BAKER 10/11

Win Bet

Tipperary 5.25

13/8 Tarnawa, 2/1 Fire Fly, 6/1 Freedom Come,
7/1 Chamrousse, 9/1 Osmosis, 12/1 Bellakris,
14/1 Credenza, 16/1 Commodus, 20/1 Gold Memory
20/1 Paisean, 33/1 Reeking Havoc.

7f Fillies Maiden

TARNAWA has raced once
FIRE FLY has raced 4 times

TARNAWA ran well on her debut
She had a difficult draw that day
No reason why she can't win this

FIRE FLY is prefered with 4 runs
Last years winner of this race
Also had 4 runs from the same stable
She should have won before now
Robbed at the death in her last race
She has the best numbers in the race
May just be too strong for Tarnawa

BELLAKRIS has been supported
Needs a lot of improvement in 14 days

Selection

FIRE FLY 2/1

Win Bet

Tipperary 6.25

3/1 Lady Sonia, 5/1 La Novia, 7/1 Turnkey,
8/1 Daliyah, Fiannaiocht, 10/1 Goneinsixtyseconds,
10/1 Marmalade N Toast, 10/1 Nailed On Nina,
12/1 Button Popper, 14/1 Raise The Tempo,
14/1 Villa Maria, 20/1 Lucan Rock, 25/1 Ten Joys,
33/1 Emperor Of Fashion, Mr Whoppit,
50/1 Sun A Rye.

7f Handicap for 3 year olds

This is only a 0-64 handicap

TURNKEY is topweight rated 64
With Topweight and 167 days off
Every chance of getting her beaten

FIANNAIOCHT is second top weight
She only faces a 0-60 class field
I think she is capable of outclassing these
I've opposed her a few times before
She has no been well placed this year
Here first 2 runs were on heavy over 8f
Too much for her given her sire stats
So early in her career she didn't stay
She them went to Leopardstown over 1m 5f
No chance of staying that day either
Not with an 82 day absence as well

She dropped 5f in her next race at Gowran
That put her in a difficult place statistically
She was a decent 3rd in that race
Bear in mind that was a 0-86 class race
Todays she only faces a 0-64 contest
This is a far easier race than this one
Last time out she was 8th at Leopardstown
That was also a better race than this one
And she was drawn 19 of 20 that day
She made the running from a high draw
If you look at all handicaps at Leopardstown
Run over any distance since 2011
Horses drawn 19 or higher were 1-78
None horses aged 3
Have won any Leopardstown race
Drawn that high over any distance in years
She was only headed a furlong out
She has been badly placed all year
She could have too much class for these

Some of these have flaws
DALIYAH has 69 days off
She is a bit exposed with 13 runs
To be defying an absence
She has also downgraded stables
First run for a new trainer today
MARMALADE N TOAST has 100 days off
She also has to drop 3f in distance
LUCAN ROCK also drops 3f with an absence
NAILED ON NINA is a fily absent 334 days
VILLA MARIA a filly absent 70 days as well
BUTTON POPPER Has raced 11 times
Career best Racing Post Rating of just 55
That suggests limitations after so many runs
Also has a low scoring jockey as well
LA NOVIA's numbers are consistently low
She gets weight but is only rated 48

LADY SONIA should go well
Won last time in a career best run
She is one of the few obvious dangers
FIANNAIOCHT has few others that worry me
He looks well placed here
He looks better than his handicap mark

Selection

FIANNAIOCHT 5/1

Each Way

Tipperary 6.55

7/2 Different League, 5/1 Hit The Bid, St Patrick's Day,
7/1 The Broghie Man, 8/1 Gorane, 10/1 Blue Uluru, Dali,
14/1 Optionality, 16/1 Golden Spell, Now You're Talking,
16/1 Under The Covers, 25/1 Amthaal, 33/1 Abstraction,
50/1 Rapid Reaction, 66/1 Accalia.

Listed race over 5f
46 Similar races in August/September

DIFFERENT LEAGUE is interesting
She can't be seen as Different League
But she looks to hold strong claims
When you factor in opposition flaws
ST PATRICKS DAY has to drop from 8f to 5f
HIT THE BID has 152 days off
The only horses defying absences
Were 3 year olds and He is older
46 similar races
Horses absent 74 + days were 1-46
Horses absent 95 + days were 0-27
HIT THE BID fails these angles

THE BROGHIE MAN has 83 days off
With 10 runs that could be a problem
UNDER THE COVERS is up in class
GOLDEN SPELL is exposed for a a 3yo
NOW YOUR TALKING needs a career best
His 5f numbers are not good enough

Shortlist

DALI is shortlistable
But the ground may not suit
That alone wouldn't put me of her
But she is also the stable 2nd string

GORANE has a chance
She did win this race last year
She looks a sensible saver

DIFFERENT LEAGUE is ideal
If I look at the 3yo winners
Who prepped over 5f last time
They had 9 8 9 8 7 5 18 runs
With 10 runs she is safe enough
She was a Royal Ascot winner as a 2yo
I remember after her final 2yo start
When 2nd to Clemmie in the Cheveley Park
Coolmore bought her for 1.5 Million
She has just done 2 smart 5f numbers
She should be going close in this

Selection

£8 Win Bet DIFFERENT LEAGUE 5/2

£2 Win Bet GORANE 5/1

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