Statistical Analysis Thursday 22nd March

CORK 2.00

2/1 Azua Emery, 11/4 Cristal Icon,
4/1 Ar Eagla Na Heagla, 9/2 Little Princess,
6/1 Edna, 33/1 Tildas Icon,
50/1 Onemoreask, 66/1 Bright Lass.

4yo Maiden Hurdle for fillies
There are only 17 of these races
Only exist between January and March
These races are understandably rare

All 17 winners
had at least 2 lifetime starts
Horses with under 2 runs
Had a 0-16 record in these races
EDNA is unraced and has this problem
From Joseph O'Brien has to be respected
But lacking experience is a disadvantage

What swings it for me is this
If you look at fillies maiden hurdles
Not just specifically for 4 year olds
But open to any age of horse
Any distance and any time of year
Unraced horses have a 0-30 record
That seems to suggest it is not easy
EDNA is therefore opposed

Some of these are hard to read
A similar standard accross the board
CRISTAL ICON is from a Graded race
She was only a 33/1 chance in that race
I see a horse that had 11 flat starts
And was only rated 48 at the end of it
I see a horse 50/1 on her hurdling debut
I see a modest flat bred horse
She may win but not enough positives

AR EAGLA NA HEAGLA is a cheap flat bred
She has 135 days off the track
LITTLE PRINCESS also has a long absence
She has plenty to find on the numbers

AZUA EMERY is trained by Gordon Elliot
Last seen 74 days ago in a handicap hurdle
She started favourite and lost 19 lengths
Some will see that as a disapointment
Not so sure we should be so damming
If you look at her 10 rivals that day
Apart from a 33/1 rag she was the only female
All of her opponents were older than her
Almost all of her rivals were male
They were at least 2 years older than her
She took on a very experienced older males
Who were better suited to the race than her
She made the running on heavy ground
No real surprise stronger horses beat her
Today she is back amongst her own sex
Not to mention back amongst her own age
She has impeccable connections
Davy Russel replaces Aprentice riders
I think we should ignore her last run
And take advantage of weaker opposition

Selection

AZUA EMERY 7/4 -2/1

Win Bet

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.10

4/1 Eternalist, 9/2 Annie Salts, 5/1 King Crimson,
6/1 Zipedeedodah, 7/1 Fuel Injection, Newstead Abbey,
10/1 Equally Fast, 12/1 Powerful Dream, 16/1 Swendab,

5f Handicap

Some of these have fitness issues
ANNIESALTS is an exposed older mare
Who has a lay off of 117 days
POWERFUL DREAM has similar problems
An exposed older mare absent 92 days
KING CRIMSON has run once since April 2017
EQUALLY FAST raced once since July 2017
He has backclass but could be on the bounce
ETERNALIST won last time out
But she is a mare and that was 43 days ago
That absence damages her profile
FUEL INJECTION won last time
His Numbers are pretty modest though
Facing much harder opposition today
SWENDAB is a 10 year old
His 36 day absence is a concern
Almsot all his wins came with recent runs
I can only shortlist 2 horses

NEWSTEAD ABBEY
ZIPEDEEDOODAH

Both horses have 4 + runs in 2018
Look at all of their opposition
They had the following runs in 2018
2 0 2 0 1 2 1 2 2

Both horses have over 2 more runs
That any horse this callendar year
On Racing Post Ratings
They have the best recent numbers
Hard to nominate the beter of the two
ZIPEDEEDOODAH is 2 years younger
He has an extra race this year
His last 28 runs were in higher grade
So I am giving him the verdict

Selection

£4.25 Each Way ZIPEDEEDOODAH 9/2

£1.50 Win Bet NEWSTEAD ABBEY 6/1

WOLVERHAMPTON 3.15

1/2 Tha'ir, 3/1 Barnaby Brook,
7/1 What Usain, 12/1 Cabal,
66/1 St James's Park.

9f Selling race

A Strict interpretation of the weights
Suggests THA'R should win this race
Might not be that simple though

THA'IR has been running well recently
Until he flopped last time out
BARNABY BOY beat him comfortably
Perhaps he had too many recent runs
Perhaps he needs to take a break
Either of these horses could win
I can't bet THA'IR at odds on
Not when beaten 10 + lengths last time
Surely the percentage bet here
Has to be BARNABY BOY each way
WHAT USAIN was hammered very recently
Even allowing for him not staying the trip
CABAL rated too low and unlikely to be fit
This looks the only sensible bet

Selection

BARNABY BOY 9/4

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1,2

CORK 4.15

11/8 Danse Away, 100/30 Bee A Beneficiary,
6/1 Time And Times, 8/1 Victoria Bay, 10/1 Rebel Ace,
14/1 Naturally Blond, Star Counsel, 16/1 Nicat's Benefit,
20/1 Winter Breeze, 25/1 Epsilon Indi,
33/1 Auction Reminder.

2m 4f Handicap Hurdle

DANSE AWAY won easily 2 days ago
I do like very easy very recent winners

Handicap Hurdles in March
Any Distance
Any Class
Horses winning last time
Running in the last 3 days
Make horses aged under 8
So far 7 horses had this profile
They finished W W W 3 W 2 W
DANSE AWAY shares this 5-7 profile

On the face of it
It would be very easy to select her
But I do quite like the main danger
BEE A BENEFICIARY is interesting
She should have won 2 races ago
She was not given the best of rides
She cut them down like a knife through butter
Managed only second last time
But was beaten by a Gordon Elliot improver
Who produced a career best to win
If you take that horse out of the race
BEE A BENEFICIARY would have won easily
I think she is a serious danger
She is a 7yo mare going up in distance
I can find winners just like her (Miss Abbey)

TIME AND TIMES is a chasing type
Can't rule her out on his last run
But I prefer the two market leaders
Both have serious positives
And I'd be disappointed if both lost
So I am staking it to not lose if either win

Selection

£6 Win BEE A BENEFICIARY 3/1

£4 Win DANSE AWAY 11/8