Statistical Analysis Thursday 16th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Salisbury 2.10

5/6 Concello, 3/1 Hawayel, 11/2 Popping Corks,
7/1 Canavese, 12/1 Florence Rose, 25/1 Sonnetina,
33/1 Loving Life.

7f Maiden Fillies

Popping Corks - 4 runs
Hawayel - 4 runs
All other horses - 1 run

CONCELLO could obviously win this
But her debut didn't set a high standard
Racing Post Rating of 64 isn't that high

Her two main rivals in this race
Both have 4 previous career starts
Thats 3 more than CONCELLO has
Thats 3 more than any of them
On a track like this that could be a help

CANAVESE also has 1 career start
Ran behind CONCELLO on debut
If that form is not strong enough
Then we should be able to beat both

There are under 8 runners
So I think we should split stake this

POPPING CORKS is my choice
I think her last run was excusable
She was a filly absent 62 days
She was having her handicap debut
That was in a big field at Ffos Las
Big ask for a filly with a nasty absence
HAWAYEL makes sense as a saver

I could be wrong
They may not be as good as the favourite
Who has after all not done as much wrong
But happy to side with experienced horses

Selection

£8 Win Bet POPPING CORKS 6/1 - 13/2

£2 Win Bet HAWAYEL 4/1

Beverley 5.00

10/11 Vigee Le Brun, 7/1 Make On Madam,
8/1 John Caesar, 12/1 Billy Bond, 14/1 Red Charmer,
14/1 Swiss Cross, 16/1 Arcane Dancer, Dark Confidant,
16/1 King Of The Celts, 20/1 Mr Cool Cash, Wasm,
33/1 Dutch Artist, Graceful Act, 50/1 Zarkavon.

8f Handicap for Amateurs

VIGEE LE BRUN hacked up 3 days ago
Must be one of the fittest horses
Her Racing Post Rating was 74
Suggests she is well ahead of the handicapper
Who has her on a modest rating of 60

Last time out Racing Post Ratings
Puts her 12lbs clear of the others
Just about the best jockey in the race
Filly in form she should really win again
Only problem is a short enough price

Selection

VIGEE LE BRUN evens

Win Bet

Leopardstown 5.15

11/4 Fire Fly, 6/1 Never Shy Away,
13/2 Tosen Shauna, 7/1 Bellakris, 7/1 Delphinia,
9/1 Royal Canford, 10/1 Credenza, Ho Ho Bird,
14/1 Grace To Grace, 16/1 Olympic Heroine,
16/1 Operatic Export, 40/1 Cuileann, 50/1 Stocai Ban,
50/1 Twoforseven, 100/1 The Next Abbey.

FIRE FLY 2/1

On balance She does look the winner
Been here before with Aidan O'Brien
We all know she could be different class
Easiest on paper to make the case form
But we have all seen these get beaten
Fire Fly was beaten at a short price last time
In the big races you really can Trust Aidan
But in these sort of races you just can't
That said I think she should win this

FIRE FLY is the selection
Would appeal in an each way double
If he is available at 5/2
Then i'd have selected him each way

Yarmouth 6.55

7/2 Topology, 4/1 Agent Of Fortune,
6/1 Safrani, 8/1 Topmeup, 9/1 Eternal Destiny,
12/1 Master Poet, Percy Toplis, 14/1 Elusive Show,
14/1 Foxrush Take Time, Mime Dance, Pitch High,
16/1 Slipalongtrevaskis, 33/1 Pam's Angel,
40/1 Sunset Bounty, 66/1 India Jane.

7F Handicap

Low Grade stuff

One thing worth considering
Last time out numbers

Racing Post Ratings
Last Time Out

62 Topology
52 Agent Of Fortune
52 Eternal Destiny
48 Topmeup
46 Percy Toplis

TOPOLOGY has a comfortable edge
He has the most recent run as well

116 similar races in August

Fillies with under 5 runs
Running within 28 days
Return a 0-23 record in these races
ETERNAL DESTINY has this problem
She isn't drawn well and was 50/1 last time
PAMS ANGEL also shares this problem
SAFRANI is a 3yo absent 144 days
That and a wide draw leave me cold
PITCH HIGH's numbers are too low
PERCY TOPLIS has the same issue
MIME DANCE not running well enough
ELUSIVE SHOW is drawn 15 of 15
With 3 runs up in trip she is beatable
SLIPALONGTREVASKIS may lack fitness

MASTER POET needs to improve
Could do though and he is respected

ANGEL OF FORTUNE won last time
Modest numbers but another with a chance

FOXRUSH TAKE TIME has a squeak
Needs to put 2 bad runs behind him

TOPMEUP has a chance
This is her time of year
All her wins were with cut
The ground may be coming right

TOPOLOGY has the best numbers
3 winners with similar profiles

If the market had allowed it
I'd have gone £4 each way and £2 saver
But My selection is 7/2 from 5/1

Selection

£8 Win Bet TOPOLOGY 7/2

£2 Win Bet TOPMEUP 8/1

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