Statistical Analysis Sunday 2nd September

in #gambling5 years ago

Brighton 3.30

5/4 Miss Celestial, 9/2 Island Jungle, 5/1 Shellbrook,
6/1 Tony Chestnut, 8/1 Two Blondes, 16/1 Shining Torch,
25/1 Usanecolt.

7f Novice

MISS CELESTIAL is the best horse
She has both good and bad points

Based on lifetime Racing Post Ratings
Having achieved an 88 rating last time
MISS CELESTIAL has an 11lbs edge
That is a serious advantage to hold
That must get her on the staking plan

There are some doubts though
She is drawn widest of all here
She has never raced at Brighton
She is also a filly carrying a penalty
She is carrying the maximum penalty
I wouldn't want to commit to her
But instead want to make her a saver

No strong opinion of the others
The Market hasn't got a clue either
But TWO BLONDES may be underestimated

She is clearly in good form
She is the fittest horse in the race
Reasonable to think others have more scope
And they may improve past her
We are saving one that might
But with a run 7 days ago
And several recent runs more than the others
I am taking a chance she can win this

Selection

£6 Win Bet TWO BLONDES 8/1

£4 Win Bet MISS CELESTIAL 11/8

Worcester 3.45

9/4 Included, 4/1 Stepover, 11/2 Thelunarschooner,
7/1 Ebonys Encore, 8/1 Soiesauvage, Solstalla,
9/1 Ginger Fizz, 14/1 Milan Of Crystal.

Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m

Similar races at this time of year
Show horses from Novice/Maiden hurdles
Under 8 hurdle runs
Running within 6 weeks
Return a 0-34 record
THELUNARSCHOONER fails this
Her last run was not god enough
MILAN OF CRYSTAL ran 4 days ago
Beaten too far to be on interest
SOIESAUVAGE is a seasonal debutant
Doesn't really have enough backclass
EBONYS ENCORE is another debutant
She has only had 4 career starts so far
Career best Racing Post Rating of 98
Why should she win off a rating of 110
When first time out with a big weight
GINGER FIZZ is 11 years old
Older than any winner of these races

STEPOVER has topweight
She is very exposed with 21 hurdle runs
STEPOVER has a combination of things
That worry me for a horse so exposed
Not least 69 days off and topweight as well

Mares Handicap Hurdle
August and September
Any distance and Any Class
Horses with 17 + hurdle runs
Absent more than 36 days are 0-13
Carrying 11st 5lbs or more are 0-16
STEPOVER has this against her

SOLSTALLA is also exposed
She has 20 previous hurdle runs
Her trainers last winner was in 2016

INCLUDED won 2 days ago
Racing Post Rating of 114
Is better than her handicap mark
The best last time rating in the race
I could bet her each way

Or have a win bet
With a saver on the other horse
Who has a decent last time out number

Selection

Option 1

£8 Win Bet INCLUDED 5/2

£2 Win Bet STEPOVER 5/1

Option 2

INCLUDED 5/2

Each Way

My preference with 8 runners
Would be Option 2

Brighton 4.30

6/4 Roy Rocket, 9/4 Archimento,
3/1 Purple Rock, 20/1 Henry Croft

12f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses

HENRY CROFT is underraced
He has just 1 run since March

ROY ROCKET is running well
He was 4th in a better race last time
Before that he won at Brighton
That was a very creditable victory
But he is an 8 year old now
After 54 career runs since 2004
His Career best Racing Post Rating
Is only a pretty average figure of 79

ARCHIMENTO has beaten that
PURPLE ROCK has beaten that
Both from far fewer races
And when 2-3 years younger as well

At the start of 2018
ROY ROCKET was rated only 55
Having won 3 times he is now rated 70
But the 3 wins he managed this season
Were all in low grade Class 6 races
They were only 0-67 0-66 0-54 class races
This is a better 0-75 grade today
His main opponents in this race
Far better than horses he has beaten
I have to doubt his class in this race
This may go to one of 2 classier types

Shortlist

PURPLE ROCK
ARCHMENTO

ARCHMENTO has the safer profile

PURPLE ROCK comes from an 8f race
This is a 4f step up in distance
Similar 12f Handicaps August/September
Show Horses aged 6 or more
Coming from 8f races
Have a modest 1-54 record
That winner had 11lbs less weight
ARCHMENTO has a better profile
He would be my preference in this
But in a small field room for a saver

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet ARCHMENTO 9/4

£2.50 Win Bet PURPLE ROCK 11/4

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