Statistical Analysis Sunday 26th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Curragh 1.35

11/4 Circus Maximus, 8/1 Fresno, Inflection Point,
10/1 Casting Call, Recovery Road, Sacchoandvanzetti,
12/1 Elite Trooper Grey, 14/1 Aced It, Globe Theatre,
14/1 I Am Superman, 20/1 Breaking Story, Clashaniska,
20/1 Micro Manage, Mosh, Puma Strike, 25/1 Kinch,
25/1 Playa Del Puente, Rain Or Shine, Tham Luang,
33/1 Jasikan, Landing Zone, Wicklow Raj, 50/1 Aneczka,
66/1 Greg's Diamond, 100/1 Cois Sionna.

Huge field of unraced horses
Requires complete guesswork
Circus Maximus is favourite for Aidan
He is 11/4 to win on Betfair
He is 10/11 to place on Betfair
Can't bet any of these with confidence

The stable could win with a 2nd string
At those odds the place bet appeals
If strong in a market where few can win

This is 12/1 bar 2
INFLECTION POINT is 3rd favourite
His sires unraced 2 year olds
Over 7f on softer than good
Have a worrying 1-46 record
Males in that record were 0-35
That suggests he may struggle

Sometimes the place bet is the value
At the above prices 10/11 to place is better

If you gave me a free bet

I would have a PLACE bet at 4/5

On CIRCUS MAXIMUS

Goodwood 2.00

13/8 Gold Bere, 9/2 Lariat, 5/1 Debbonair,
6/1 Al Wafi, 9/1 Two Blondes, 11/1 Aspire Tower,
14/1 Just Hubert, 16/1 Barsa Kelmes,
33/1 Ignatius.

2yo maiden over 8f
With Debbonair and Lariat unraced
And not certain to get home on debut
I'd look for an experienced option

This race is based on sales prices
For horses no more expensive than 30k
So an unraced winner from a cheap horse
May not be the most likely scenario
So has to be experience in this race

AL WAFI each way at 5/1 is one option
Maybe worth a saver on Aspire Tower
Same stable and just behind him on debut

TWO BLONDES could get placed
But AL WAFI each way my choice of bet
Nothing more than hunch betting

Curragh 2.05

5/2 Lost Treasure, 4/1 Tintoretto, 6/1 Venetian Rock,
10/1 Ajmera, Al Batal, Mona Bell, 12/1 Hot Stone,
14/1 Major Power, Tabaahy, 20/1 Feetinthesand,
25/1 Jo Binney, Paved Paradise, 33/1 Coffeemeanscoffee,
50/1 Bonnie Park, 50/1 Kivatie, 50/1 Pedro De Styles,
Simmonscourt, 100/1 Madamoiselle.

3yo Maiden
Two fancied horses have absences
LOST TREASURE is a seasonal debutant
Not all the sires 3 year olds train on
Drawn 14 anyone's guess how he runs
TINTORETTO another seasonal debutant
Given the limitations of his sire
Not a sire I'd associate with Curragh maidens
He will do very well to take this race
VENETIAN ROCK is unraced
He is the best backed horse here
When I checked the market this morning
There was 79% of all stakes matched on him
No reason why he can't beat the other pair

AJMERA can place if handling soft

I would rather take this pair
VENETIAN ROCK and AJMERA
Than either Lost Treasure of Tintoretto
Not sure how best to stake them

Obviously no selection

Goodwood 2.30

7/2 Phoenician Star, 9/2 Barnay, Demurrer,
5/1 Twenty Twenty, 6/1 Groundnut, 7/1 Can Can Sixty Two,
7/1 Font Vert, 16/1 Karakoram.

3yo Selling race over 1m 3f

Past winners had these runs
8 8 8 8 11 4 16
Past winners had these runs that year
6 6 6 8 11 1 8

TWENTY TWENTY has had 2 runs
Past winners had 8 8 8 8 11 4 runs
All his opponents have at least 4 more

DEMURRER has 2 runs in 2018
Past winners had 6 6 6 8 11 1 8 runs
Almost all his rivals have more runs
He looks short of runs to me
He may not get home as well
His Sires runners over 11f + are 0-20

CAN CAN SIXTY TWO is the only filly
Fillies won 6 of the 7 renewals
That is a factor in her favour
But she has 73 days off the track
All past winners ran within 29 days
Absence is a big problem

July and August
Selling races since 2004
Any Distance
Horses Aged 3
Absent more than 6 weeks
Return a horrible 4-227 record
Those running over 9f + were 1-105
Those with over 5 runs were 1-110
CAN CAN SIXTY TWO is unsafe

KARAKORAM is badly weighted

BARNAY has the numbers to go well
But he steps up from an 8f race
I've looked at all selling races
Run over 1m 3f and further

Any time of year since 2005
Horses aged 3
Coming from 8f or shorter
With 9 or more career runs
Have a 0-44 record in these races
BARNAY has plenty to prove

Male 3 year olds
From 8f or shorter
With 5 or more runs
Have a 0-56 record in the same period
GROUNDNUT also comes from 8f
He fails this 0-56 angle
Worries me he has 3 runs in 2018
When others have far more
Worries me he has 1 run in 90 days
GROUNDNUT doesn't offer enough

FONT VERT is not very well weighted
Gives weight to higher rated horses
Not keen he has 1 run in 70 days as well
He does have positives though
12 runs and 5 this year is just fine

PHOENICIAN STAR has 7 runs
With 6 of them this year he is fine
He has strong numbers as well
Well clear on last time out numbers
Main problem with this horse
Relying on a very unreliable trainer

Selection

PHOENICIAN STAR 15/8

Win Bet

Curragh 2.35

11/4 Viadera, 7/2 Zagitova, 6/1 Iridessa,
6/1 Lady Kaya, Skitter Scatter, 8/1 Chocolate Music,
8/1 Hermosa, 10/1 Peach Tree, 20/1 Bandiuc Eile,
25/1 Vallambrosa.

Debutante Stakes
2yo Fillies over 7f

Some smart horses have won this
The O'Briens have several runners
Doing their best to complicate things

LADY KAYA smells fancied
She has been the best backed
The risk with her is the sire

Horses sired by Dandy Man
Running in pattern races
Over 6 furlongs and more
Have a 0-64 record so far
LADY KAYA has this problem

This is 7 furlongs
His sire has 2yo winners over 7f +
None have won beyond Class 4 (0-15)
LADY KAYA is too risky
Her numbers do she is very smart
And this stat will fall sooner or later
But hard to select her before it does

SKITTER SKATTLE has 5 runs
Thats more exposed than any recent winner
Having under 4 runs is the norm here

VIADERA must have a chance
ZAGITOVA another very shortlistable

If you gave me a free bet
I'd split stake this race win + place

LADY KAYA a place bet around evens
Failed her profile on breeding statistics
But has the positives to go quite close
She would appeal as the £5 place bet

£5 Win ZAGITOVA 5/2

£5 Place LADDY KAYA 4/5 +

Goodwood 3.00

100/30 Hamlul, 9/2 Beringer, Knight Errant,
6/1 Jack Regan, 7/1 Escalator, Victory Chime,
8/1 Jazeel, 14/1 Sing Out Loud

10f Handicap
Class 2 race

Too much I don't know here

Just interested statistically
In the challenges Beringer has
He has 44 days off and 9st 7lbs

In similar races
Horses absent over 5 weeks
Carrying more than 9st weight
Do not score well
Those with over 6 runs were 1-42
Those with over 8 runs were 0-23
BERINGER with 10 runs fails this

Similar angles seem to work
At other times of year over 8f +
He may well go and hack up
But my angles say he has it all to do
BERINGER - Profile is a concern

Not going to take it any further
Too many impossible to read horses
Not least the lightly raced favourite

Yarmouth 3.25

2/1 Mubtasimah, 7/2 No Way Jose, 5/1 Dawn Affair,
11/2 Mulan, 13/2 Quasar, 10/1 Kuwaitiya, 20/1 Excelled,
33/1 Antiguan Duchess, Flaunt It, Nostrovia, Red Saree,
66/1 Ip Dip, 100/1 Waltzing Belle.

6F Maiden

MUBRASIMAH - Cant trust him
Not unraced in a big field by Dark Angel

NO WAY JOSE each way 11/4
Looks an obvious option albeit unpalatable
Given he has some decent figures

There is strength in depth
QUASAR must be a player

Split stakes also viable
Difficult to call with the rain
NO WAY JOSE should beat Mubtasimah
Whether he beats the unraced contingent
Much harder to call

Goodwood 3.35

7/2 Balmoral Castle, 5/1 Miss Sheridan,
11/2 Ebbisham, Red Charmer, 13/2 Mr Red Clubs,
11/1 French Mix, 25/1 Hard Toffee.

Amateur Riders race
7 Runners
Win lose or draw
Uncomfortable with the favourite

BALMORAL CASTLE is a 9yo
He only has 2 races in 2018
That worries me on several levels
But throw in a 6 day absence as well
That just looks so wrong
BALMORAL CASTLE is too risky

MR RED CLUBS is also a 9yo
With just 2 runs in 2018 as well
I could not rely on his profile
HARD TOFFEE has soft numbers

FRENCH MIX is a filly from 11f to 9f
No idea what to make of that
Given a low sample size of racing

MISS SHERIDAN is a filly up from 7f
More accurately up 1.5 furlongs
Another not easy to read

RED CHARMER looks a big player
Winning 2 days ago may be a positive
A Profile I'd want on side in Amateur races
That looks the sensible play

Selection

£8.50 Win RED CHARMER 7/2

£1.50 Saver EBBISHAM 6/1

Curragh 3.40

7/4 Verbal Dexterity, 4/1 Success Days,
9/2 Deauville, 11/2 Ming, 9/1 Beautiful Morning,
9/1 Reckless Gold, 20/1 Brendan Brackan,
33/1 Broadway.

Group race over 10f

VERBAL DEXTERITY is the best horse
He should win this on official numbers
Was a possible Guineas horse in the spring
But he has a 302 day absence to overcome

My problem with him
I could not trust the sire Vocalised
With a horse over as far as this
When you factor in the class of the race
And the absence the horse has as well
He may and possibly should win
But I'd rather go each way against him
I just don't have enough faith in the sire

The race is further complicated
By the 2nd 3rd and 4th favourites
All running abroad last time !

Best Guess

DEAUVILLE 4/1 Each Way

Looks the most plausible option

Goodwood 5.20

11/4 Dr Doro, 100/30 Broadhaven Honey,
11/2 Flowing Clarets,13/2 Roundabout Magic,
7/1 Kath's Lustre, 16/1 Firenze Rosa,
16/1 John Joiner, 20/1 Deer Song.

5f Handicap

DR DORO is a 5yo mare
Do we really want to risk her
When she has had 2 runs in 13 months
I can't find enough positives for her

Some others are short of runs
JOHN JOINER and DEER SONG are

KATHS LUSTRE is a 3yo filly
May be asking a lot to defy topweight
FIRENZA ROSE is a 3yo filly
Running low numbers well beat last time

Shortlist

ROUNDABOUT MAGIC - Won't want rain

BROADHAVEN HONEY - Won't want rain

FLOWING CLARETS - More rain the better

If rain has softened the ground
The logical bet would be this

FLOWING CLARETS 5/1

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