Statistical Analysis Saturday May 19th

NEWBURY 1.50

3/1 Eqtidaar, 100/30 Murillo, 6/1 Breathless Times,
7/1 Shabaaby, 7/1 Cardsharp, 7/1 Juliet Capulet,
12/1 Stone Of Destiny, 16/1 Never Back Down,
20/1 All Out.

6f Listed race for 3 year olds
14 Past renewals

We know 13 of the 14 previous winners
Raced within the last 36 days
Those absent longer were 1-36
Not a good race for seasonal debutants
JULIET CAPLET has an absence
She does get a fillies allowance
But thats negated by her penalty
SHABAABY comes here 217 days off
NEVER BACK DOWN lacks a recent run
STONE OF DESTINY also fails this
And No past winners came from a 5f race

MURIILO ran in the 2000 Guineas
CARDSHARP ran in the 2000 Guineas
This is a drop from 8f to 6f
Their runs were only 14 days ago
It may not be easy to drop 2f like that
MURILLO could be liable to bouncing

EQTIDAAR is simpler to profile
The Best trial is the Pavilion Stakes
5 past winners came from that Ascot race
Including the 2013 2014 2015 winners
EQTIDAAR attempts to be the 6th
My main worry about his chance
He has only had 3 career starts
Past Winners since 2009
Had 9 5 5 10 7 5 8 7 starts
Before 2009 we had a couple do it
But in recent years none have
EQTIDAAR makes the staking plan

BREATHLESS TIMES has 50 days off
You want a run within 36 days
But happy to overlook that issue
As he has the most runs in 2018
He has never raced on turf before
But he is improving and a threat

I just can't quite trust EQTIDAAR
So going for a win and place bet

Selection

£5 Win Bet EQTIDAAR 3/1

£5 Place Bet BREATHLESS TIMES 5/4

NAVAN 1.55

2/1 Hawaam, 5/2 Betsey Trotter, 7/2 Encantador,
6/1 Scream, 10/1 Teddy Boy, 25/1 Monday Blues,
33/1 Optionality, 33/1 Beau Rocko, Droichead Atha,
40/1 Daubney's Dream.

2yo Maiden over 5f164y

HAWAAM hasn't been getting home
On very soft ground over 5.5f-6f
No surprise given his pedigree

8 days ago he was 3rd at the Curragh
Good effort drawn low with 18 runners
Just didn't get home on heavy ground
This is over 3 seconds faster
On quicker ground as well
He is the fittest horse in the race
He should make that tell in this race

He faces a couple of fillies
ENCANTOR can't be ruled out
BETSEY TROTTER has potential
But don't see either coping with Hawaam

Selection

HAWAAM 6/4

Win Bet

BANGOR 2.15

100/30 San Pietro, 9/2 Heavenly Promise,
9/2 Riverside City, 6/1 Boyfromnowhere,
6/1 Midnight Mustang, 8/1 Pray For A Rainbow,
10/1 Astigos, 20/1 Toosey.

3m Handicap Chase
73 similar races in May

RIVERSIDE CITY is the class horse
I don't buy into the school of thought
That he may return to form after a break
I couldn't trust him or his stable
Not after his loss of form when last seem
He's raced just once in 190 days
He has topweight to carry as well
Until he proves otherwise he is not safe

SAN PIETRO is 2nd in the weights
You can argue he is well handicapped
And a recent stable upgrade has helped
But he is only a modest small horse
May nick the odd bad race like this one
But hardly an ideal type for topweight
TOOSEY is 3rd in the weights
Just not running well enough for me

BOYFROMNOWHERE is a slow stayer
He last won a race under rules in 2013
He probably wants further than this
Especially on a sharp track and fast ground
But to be fair to him he is very fit
He is running better than his mark

PRAY FOR A RAINBOW is a 7yo
This is his 2nd ever Chase run
His first was in 2016 when Pulling up
Completely unproven yet promising
Some have won with 1 Chase start
But in all 73 similar races in May
Horses from hurdle races
Beaten last time out
Running within 24 days are 0-32

ASTIGOS won last time
But he is a very exposed 11yo
He has a poor strike rate
All his wins and best numbers
Have come on softer ground

MIDNIGHT MUSTANG won 8 days ago
Whilst he is 11 and has modest form
That run 8 days ago was a joint career best
That gets him shortlisted
But he is not the biggest of horses

HEAVENLY PROMISE is a Mare
We backed her 2 runs ago at Bangor
As she had just done a career best
She looked very well treated off 76
She won that day and went up to 81
She has since been beaten at Uttoxeter
That track may have been too much for her
3 of her best 4 numbers are at this track

Selection

HEAVENLY PROMISE 6/1

Each Way

THIRSK 2.45

2/1 Luchador, 3/1 Red Hut Red,
5/1 Akela Moon, 10/1 Darwina, Oxygenic,
12/1 Lady Kinsale, 14/1 Improvising,
16/1 Pritty Livvy, 16/1 Bandola.

5f Maiden

Agree with the Racing Post here
LUCHADOR does set the standard
But something could easily overtake him
RED HUT RED is from a smart stable
Started his career on a Grade 1 track
Green and unlucky on that debut
He was looked after once beaten
On his debut Racing Post Rating
He is only 1lbs behind the favourite
Every chance he is a better horse
AKELA MOON is unraced
Could be a threat if she is ready
RED HUT RED is the logical e/w bet
This is probably a meaningless angle
William Haggas 2 year olds
1 previous at run at Newmarket
Sent to Thirsk for their 2nd runs
Have a W W record from 2 that tried
Both were fillies like Red Hut Red

Selection

RED HUT RED 5/2

Win Bet

NEWBURY 3.00

9/2 Masaarr, 6/1 Mekong, 13/2 He's Amazing,
7/1 Chief Ironside, Dukhan, 8/1 Communique,
9/1 Loyal Promise, 10/1 Master Of Wine,
12/1 Glencadam Master, 12/1 Poet's Prince,
16/1 Connect.

3yo handicap over 10f
Takes a smart horse to win this
One who is always lightly raced
Winners had 3 4 3 2 6 5 3 3 4 3 4 3 runs

POETS PRINCE is clearly too exposed
CONNECT has too much weight
He is wrong prepping over 7f anyway

Horses who raced this year under 9f
Have returned a 0-23 record since 2007
MASTER OF WINE also has this problem
MASAARR also has this problem
Coming from a mile race this year
Has not provided any recent winners

Horses beaten over 5 lengths last time
Have a 1-53 record in this race
GLENCADAM was beaten 15 lengths
Puts him in a weak place statistically
CHEIF IRONSIDE won a maiden last time
Not a stable I would want to rely on
And starting 14/1 last time puts me off
Didn't beat much as the favourite flopped
But I could have got him wrong

DUKHAN's profile is fine
But he is a smaller unimposing type
He may have less scope than others
LOYAL PROMISE lacks positives

Shortlist

HE'S AMAZING is the right profile

MEKONG also has a safe profile

COMMUNIQUE has a good profile
4 runs from the same Sandown Handicap
Matches the 2007 and 2009 winners

Selection

£4 Each Way COMMUNIQUE 9/1

£1 Win Bet HE'S AMAZING 9/1

NAVAN 3.35

100/30 Blue Uluru, 4/1 Alfredo Arcano,
9/2 Oneoveryou, 7/1 St Brelades Bay,
15/2 Smash Williams, 10/1 Snowstar, 12/1 Solar Halo,
12/1 Sors, 18/1 Mister Trader, 20/1 Abstraction,
25/1 Haqeeba.

Class 2 Handicap over 5f
72 similar races in May

BLUE ULURU is a 3yo filly
She is the only 3 year old
Taking on older horses
Assesing 3 year olds is hard
Few ran in an inconclusive 1-11 record
The only 3yo winner was different
Didn't come from 6f as she does
Didn't have an absence as long
Didn't have just 1 run that season
Given this is quite a stiff 5 furlongs
BLUE ULURU lacks a safe profile
And has never ran a fast ground 5f

Fillies won 7 of these races
None did it absence more than 42 days
All 29 that tried were beaten
SNOWSTAR has this problem
She is a seasonal debutant filly
SOLAR HALO has the same problem

ONEOVERYOU is a 7yo Mare
She has an absence of 52 days
If you look at Class 2 Handicaps
Any and every distance
Any time of year since 2007
Mares aged 7 or more won 8 races
Those 8 winners all ran within 25 days
Those absent longer were 0-75
ONEOVERYOU has looked impressive
And in a small field defy that statistic
But non have managed that since 2007

HAQUEEBA doesn't offer enough
MISTER TRADER has ran 2 stinkers in a row
ABSTRACTION is an 8yo seasonal debutant
Not enough of those win to get involved
ST BVRELADES BAY has 197 days off
Not overkeen on his draw
He doesn't have much 5f form either

Shortlist

ALFREDO ARCANO is a 4yo
Despite an absence his profile is fine

SORS is probably the fittest runners
This fast ground 5f could help him
He is a player on the best of his form

SMASH WILLIAMS is unorthodox
Lightly raced 5yo Group class sprinter
His 2016 campaign was spoilt by Ringworm
Jim Bolger has tried to get him back to form
If he is capable of running to his best
He could be thrown in off a rating of 98
His first two career starts as a 2yo
Were Racing Post Ratings of 100 + 112
On his last run he finished last of 8
But against listed class fitter horses

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet SMASH WILLIAMS 11/2

£1.00 Win Bet SORS 11/1

£1.50 Win Bet ALFREDO ARCANO 6/1

NEWBURY 3.40

7/2 Rhododendron, 9/2 Addeybb, 9/2 Limato,
7/1 Beat The Bank, 10/1 Zabeel Prince,
12/1 Lancaster Bomber, 14/1 Deauville,
16/1 Librisa Breeze, Lightning Spear, Suedois,
25/1 Zonderland, 33/1 Accidental Agent,
33/1 Alexios Komnenos, Dutch Connection,
50/1 War Decree, 50/1 Lahore.

We've twice looked at this race
Yesterday I suggested a shortlist
The strongest angles are these

4 year olds are best
Ideally with 8-14 career starts
5 year olds the only other acceptable age
The last 12 winners were rated 113 +
The last 8 winners were rated 117 +
Horses drawn 5-11 are best
Horses from Group 3 races are 0-32
Horses from Listed races are 0-26

Shortlist

LIMATO 9/2
BEAT THE BANK 8/1
ADDEYBB 6/1
RHODODENDRON 3/1

ADDEYBB is drawn 16 or 16
That would worry me a lot

Newbury 8f races since 2007
Class 3 of higher
Under 22 runners
Horses drawn 13 or more
Have a 0-24 record

Look at the Lockinge itself
Every renewal since 1997
Horses drawn 10 or more
Have a 0-26 record in this race
ADDEYBB has this to overcome
He's never raced on fast ground

BEAT THE BANK is a seasonal debutant
No statistical reason why he can't win
But can we trust Andrew Balding ?
And his best numbers are on soft

LIMATO is a 6yo
Only 1 of the last 20 winners was as old
A concern but the record is only 1-20
And several of these also placed
He is Drawn 11 which is acceptable
His only 2 previous runs over a mile
Saw him unplaced as 11/4 + 3/1 favourite
But his trainer has given good excuses

“Our horses were way out of form when
he ran in the Lockinge two years ago and
the ground was far too soft for him,”

“Santa Anita [Breeders’ Cup Mile] was a
disaster. He boiled over, and then things
didn’t work out in the race."

LIMATO does look very shortlistable
Out of a Singspeil Mare who won over 10f
I think a mile looks more than within range
You could argue he is crying out for it

RHODODENDRON should go close
She prepped over 10f in France
That makes her very hard to read
It is an unorthodox profile
She gets the fillies allowance
She needed her seasonal debut

16 runners
1/5 the Odds only 3 places
An each way bet isn't ideal

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet LIMATO 5/1

£2.50 Win Bet RHODODENDRON 3/1 +

NAVAN 5.20

5/2 Rapture's Delight, 5/1 Bit Of Banter,
5/1 Broad Street, 11/2 Lucius Tiberius, 10/1 Baliyad,
11/1 Paperback Writer, 12/1 Manfadh, 14/1 All Saints Day,
22/1 Jimmy Geronimo, 25/1 Chilterns, Leaderboard,
33/1 Flying Focus, 40/1 Robert E Lee, 50/1 Echo Park.

10f Maiden race

RAPTURES DELIGHT is favourite
He has raced once over a mile
Set a reasonable standard
Now moves up to 1m 2f

His sire has this challenge
Invincible Spirit
Turf runners over 10f
Under 3 career starts
Return a 0-38 record so far
They are 1-51 if I include the All weather
But so far 0-38 on Grass with under 3 runs
That raises a doubt for me
RAPTURES DELIGHT is a short price
So I am looking elsewhere

BIT OF BANTER is a filly first time out
Wasn't a very expensive horse either
LUCIUS TIBERIUS is a seasonal debutant

If you go back to 2011
Navan races over 10f
With 9 or more runners
Horses drawn 1 have a 0-63 record
LUCIUS TIBERIUS has a dodgy draw
MANFADH has to step up 3 furlongs
Few of these have safe profiles

BROAD STREET is unraced
So we can only guess his ability
But a top stable and well supported
This looks quite a winable race

Selection

BROAD STREET 3/1

Each Way

UTTOXETER 7.35

5/4 Lissycasey, 2/1 Stylish Dancer,
5/2 Hurricane Dylan, 50/1 Sehayli.

Novice Hurdle 2m 4f

Small field

STYLISH DANCER is a 4yo filly
Luca Cumain on the Flat
Dan Skelton now over hurdles
Two things bother me
Sold for just 10 grand in February
Doesn't sound a lot for a 4yo
Who initially cost 150k
And had some decent flat form
To be fair she did win at Cheltenham last time
That was only a handicap against 4 year olds
And she fails the following statistic

May and June
Novice Hurdles over 2m 2f +
Fillies aged 4 have a 0-40 record
Not a strong angle in a tiny field
But her Racing Post Hurdle ratings
Are well behind her main two rivals

LISSYCASEY has an obvious chance
He has been running in Handicap Hurdles
Good 2nd last time but he was onlya 40/1 chance
And the record of her trainers runners
In the previous 16 months is 0-58

HURRICANE DYLAN is a 7yo
He won a maiden hurdle last time
That is far more trustworthy profile

Novice Hurdles in May
Any and every distance
Male horses aged 7
Winning Maiden Hurdles last time
Under 8 career starts
Have a 4-6 record
They finished W 3 W W 2 W

Selection

HURRICANE DYLAN 7/4

Win Bet