Statistical Analysis Saturday 7th July

BEVERLEY 2.00

11/8 The Trader, 2/1 Prince Elzaam,
7/1 One To Go, 12/1 Poet's Delight,
12/1 Zalmi Force, 14/1 Good Looker,
16/1 Joe The Beau.

2yo Novice over 7f
Interesting little race

THE TRADER has 1 run
That was only 7 days ago
The main issue with him
Will this come too quickly ?

2yo Novices over 7f and more
Run all year round in any class
Show Male 2yo's with 1 run
Having a run in the last 8 days
Have a 0-22 record since 2007

THE TRADER fails this 0-22 angle
Doesn't sound strong just 0-22
But it is all year round
He did finish last on his debut
And his dangers have more runs

PRINCE ELZAAM has 2 runs
Has a more recent run as well
ONE TO GO ran ok at Chester
Missed the break finished well
Given prices and penalties
Makes sense to cover both

Selection

£6 ONE TO GO 4/1

£4 PRINCE ELZAAM 13/8

HAYDOCK 2.20

9/4 Mythmaker, 11/4 Intisaab,
3/1 Upstaging, 13/2 Poet's Vanity,

6f Conditions race
All older horses

UPSTAGING ran 14 days ago
He comes from the Wokingham
The best trial race for this
None though were like him
They had more recent runs

UPSTAGINGS Wokingham run
Was his first run in 252 days
He could be on the bounce
He could be short of fitness
In a 6f conditions race not for me

Similar races at this time of year
Show all winners ran within 35 days
POET'S VANITY a filly with 50 days off

If you look at
Last time out Racing Post Ratings
One horse stands out

104 Mythmaker
84 Intisaab
84 Poet's Vanity
82 Equimou
65 Upstaging

On last time numbers
MYTHMAKER has a significant edge
As good a pointer as anything else here
INTISAAB is another serious runner
Things didn't go his way at Newcastle
Has some good numbers including here

MYTHMAKER and INTISAAB
Both met in a similar race here in May
Took a photo to separate them that day
MYTHMAKER may have needed that run
I think they should produce the winner

I wanted to go win bet + saver
But 2 non runners killed that option
Had to drop INTISAAB as the saver

Selection

MYTHMAKER 9/4

Win Bet

SANDOWN 2.45

3/1 Manthoor, 7/2 Cosmopolitan Queen,
4/1 Lethal Lunch, 9/2 Point Hope,
411/2 Los Camachos, 7/1 Rogue.

7f Handicap

MANTHOOR has just won a 7f handicap
He looks beatable in a race like this
This testing 7f may find him out
The race he won at Lingfield was soft
He beat a couple of non stayers
Several were unfancied and some flopped
I will be surprised if he has the stamina
This is 6 seconds longer to run than Lingfield
If you look at his Racing Post Ratings
He has ratings of 75 76 79 79 65 79
His handicap mark is 84
Needs to improve over a trip too far
At least that is my theory in the race

The problem is finding the winner
None of the others can be ruled out
ROGUE looks the stable second choice
LOS CAMACHOS is resistible
Weak stable and not my favourite sire

COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN is a filly
None like her dropped from 8f
Her profile can only be neutral at best
She's had 12 career starts already
LETHAL LUNCH is shortlistable
POINT HOPE has plenty to offer
Liked his performance at Newmarket

Conclusion

Manthoor - may not have the stamina

Selection

£6 Win Bet POINT HOPE 4/1

£2 Win Bet LETHAL LUNCH 4/1

£2 Win Bet COSMOPOLITAN QUEEN 4/1

Angels & Observations

Sandown 12.20

3/1 Muthmir, 4/1 Judicial, 11/2 Different League,
7/1 Haddaf, 8/1 Dream Of Dreams, Mr Lupton,
10/1 Koditime, 12/1 Sound And Silence,
25/1 Mirza, 33/1 Tricksy Spirit.

Group 3 race over 5f
We looked at this race midweek
MUTHMIR had a clear advantage
But as an 8yo he was not a match
Not typical of recent past winners
Since 2007
Horses aged 3-4-5 dominated
Horses aged 6 or more
Have a 0-37 record in this race
The last 11 winners
Had the following career runs
6 11 10 6 7 12 7 10 9 6 10
You want 6-12 runs
Horses with 14 or more runs
Have a 0-64 record since 2007
The last 11 winners
Al ran within 23 days as well
Those absent longer were 0-22
The last 11 winners had this profile

Aged 3-4-5
Ran within 23 days
6-13 career starts
Officially rated 102 or more
In the previous 11 renewals
Horses with this profile were 11-29

Unfortunately 5 horses
Share this ideal profile

Koditime - Dream Of Dreams - Haddaf
Sound And Silence - Different League

Dream Of Dreams may find 5f a problem
When you factor in Stall 1 as well
He could be shuffled back
Koditime ran to a rating of 80 last time
Puts him bottom of last time numbers
But he was favourite to win that race
And he had the worst draw and dwelt

Winners in 2005 2011 2015 2017
Were 3 year olds
Coming from the Scurry Stakes
The following horses have this profile
Koditime - Haddaf -Sound And Silence

We can only guess
Given a large luck factor here
Where horses often go off too fast
When racing to individual draws

You may see it differently
This appealed a bit to me

£2.25 Each Way KODITIME 10/1 +
£2.25 Each Way SOUND AND SILENCE 12/1
£1.00 Saver bet HADDAF 9/1

SANDOWN 1.30

2/1 Narella, 11/2 Preening, 6/1 Awesometank,
7/1 Desert Diamond, 8/1 Gavota, 9/1 Di Fede,
12/1 Broadway, 14/1 Tajaanus, 25/1 Darkness Falls,
33/1 Daddies Girl

Listed race for 3yo fillies over a Mile
11 Past renewals
The only race of its kind in July
NARELLA is a seasonal debutant
None of the past winners were
She also fails this statistic

June to December
Listed and Group races
For 3yo Fillies
Any Distance
There were 78 of these races
Horses absent over 59 days
Have a 0-95 record in these races
NARELLA shares this 0-95 profile

She looks too risky
As the only horse with an absence
AWESOMETANK worries me a bit
She has raced just once this season
Most of her rivals have more
Having already had 7 runs
I'd have prefered a more recent run
Look at her sire Intense Focus
His runners over 8f and more
In pattern races are 0-13
AWESOMETANK is not that well drawn
GAVOTA has to come up in distance
She may not have done enough last time
TAJAANUS didn't appeal much on breeding
She is not the biggest of horses

BROADWAY - Unlucky well beaten at Ascot
She has to put a bad run behind her

Shortlist

DI FEDE has Stall 10 to overcome
Otherwise has a decent profile
She has 10 runs and 3 this year
The 2017 winner had 10 runs and 3 this year
The 2016 winner had 10 runs and 3 this year
Both these winners came from the Sandringham
DI FEDE also comes from that race
The last 2 winners were just like her
Just wished for a better draw

DESERT DIAMOND - Lightly raced top stable
Like 6 of the previous 13 winners
Comes via the Sandringham Handicap

PREENING has progressive numbers
She has track form as well

Could stake all 3
In a dozen different ways
This is one of the multiple options

£8.00 Win Bet PREENING 5/1
£1.00 Win Bet DESERT DIAMOND 8/1 - 9/1
£1.00 Win Bet DI FEDE 8/1 - 9/1

Leicester 1.50

7/4 Smooth Sailing, 7/2 Procedure,
6/1 Rux Ruxx, 10/1 Curious Fox,
10/1 Deciding Vote, 12/1 One More Chance.

In this 6f fillies handicap
Smooth Sailing's profile is not safe
She has raced just once in 11 months
No 3yo who came from 6f or more
Won a similar race with just 1 recent run
Rux Ruxx has a similar problem as well
In a small field and a Class 6 race
You will do well to get both beaten
But the lack of runs does worry me
Procedure one of several with more runs
Does have more to offer statistically

SANDOWN 2.10

7/4 Roaring Lion, 100/30 Saxon Warrior, 8/1 Happily,
14/1 Forest Ranger, 16/1 Hawkbill, 25/1 Cliffs Of Moher,
66/1 Raymond Tusk.

Coral Eclipse
Discussed this a few days ago
Bigger field than I expected
Although Masar is not running
He pulled out yesterday injured

Saxon Warrior is running
He could easily take this race
Given 6 rivals and 3 at big prices
He is a classic winner after all
But one factor may be against him
Group 1 races
Since 1998
Any Distance
Any time of year
Horses aged 3
Running within 11 days
Have a poor 1-68 record

His run last week over in Ireland
Wouldn't be the ideal preparation
He could get away with it and win
But ROARING LION is the selection
He has a traditionally better prep
He has also ran and won over 10f
Saxon Warrior is untested at 10f

Chelmsford 2.40

9/4 Nine Below Zero, 4/1 Al Asef,
9/2 Lord Riddiford, 8/1 Requinto Dawn,
8/1 Grandfather Tom, 12/1 Big Time Maybe,
14/1 Green Fortune

5f Handicap
NINE BELOW ZERO has topweight
But comes here after a career best
Looks capable of defying the weight
Despite having his first run on sand

Some of these look questionable
AL ASEF has raced once this year
I looked at similar races in July
None won with 1 run that season
Having had under 5 career runs
His profile just short of being safe
Big Time Maybe has won a seller
His first run for a new stable though
Green Fortune is clearly underraced
Lord Riddiford has a chance
But just 1 run in 10 weeks now
He is also up in class as well

NINE BELOW ZERO is the class horse
I don't know how he will handle sand
I won't be surprised if he takes this

NAAS 2.50

1/2 Most Gifted, 11/4 Full Moon, 6/1 Gasta.

Aidan O'Brien trains 1st 2nd favs
I can see why Most Gifted is favourite
She gets weight with the best numbers
But there isn't a lot in it
And she has never raced at 6f before
Full Moon has raced at 6f
Either could win this race
No idea who the stable choice is
But at the prices Full Moon is the bet
I would not rule out Gasta
Take the view she doesn't stay 7f
Or hates softer ground
Then she has a bucket load of excuses
Full Moon and Gasta
Will be a severe test
For a favourite unproven at 6f

Haydock 3.30

Only 4 runners
I'd avoid Excellent Times
There are more natural stayers

Bellewstown 7.20

Touch Base fails my angles
In similar 3m Handicap Hurdles
Horses from non handicaps
under 6 career starts
Running within 38 days
Return a 0-58 record

I'd choose a fancied horse
Backed in the market
Roi De Dubai is one option
Bit worried about him bouncing
But my angles pass him as ok