Statistical Analysis Saturday 25th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Goodwood 2.05

11/8 Beat The Bank, 4/1 Altyn Orda,
6/1 Zonderland, 7/1 Stormy Antarctic,
9/1 Oh This Is Us, 12/1 Arod, 16/1 Nyaleti,
16/1 Whisky Baron.

Celebration Mile

BEAT THE BANK is the highest rated horse
Deserves to be favourite on his numbers
But 4 year olds do not score in this race
In the last 21 renewals
Horses aged 4 have a 1-33 record

The only 4yo winner was 14 years ago
She was a filly and got the sex allowance
She did not have to carry a penalty
BEAT THE BANK is a male and does
That undermines his chance
He may still win but too short as a 4yo

No horse aged 6 or more
Has won this absent more than 4 weeks
AROD has this problem
WHISKEY BARON also has this problem

OH THIS IS US is unsafe
His sires record in 8f Group races is poor
NYALETI remains unconvincing
His Career best Racing Post Rating is 110
Most of these beat that last time out

ZONDEERLAND is interesting
Beaten in a photo in last years race
All the more creditable as it was first time out
This year he has had prep runs
2 recent winners came from the same race
No shame on his seasonal debut
Trying to win the Group 1 Lockinge
When he went to Royal Ascot
He was underraced and drawn 15 of 15
Last time was his best run of the year
When still entitled to have needed it
ZONDERLAND has twice been 2nd in this

ALTYN ORDA looks a serious contender
Statistically neutral as a 3yo filly
Works for me as a saver

Selection

£4 Each Way ZONDERLAND 7/1

£2 Win Bet ALTYN ORDA 4/1

Cartmel 2.10

11/4 Fort Jefferson, 3/1 Icefall, 3/1 The Steward,
7/2 Clemento, 8/1 Sunny West, 33/1 Stop Talking,
50/1 You'll Do.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 1f

Hurdle starts

8 Fort Jefferson
5 The Steward
3 You'll Do
2 Icefall
2 Sunny West
1 Clemento
0 Stop Talking

I like the experienced horses
They could have an advantage

FORT JEFFERSON 8 hurdle starts
THE STEWARD 5 hurdle starts

ICEFALL looks beatable
His sire's hurdlers don't score well
Especially on softer ground
No hurdler by the sire Frozen power
Has won without at least 3 hurdle runs (0-29)
SUNNY WEST is a 9yo
He has not seen the track since 2015
CLEMENTO has 1 hurdle start
He won that and beat The Steward in May
I did that race and didn't like The Steward
I don't think he was fit or suitable that day
CLEMENTO flopped on the flat last time

FORT JEFFERSON is the most experienced
I like him but ground worries me
He comes from a fast ground sire
He has raced 5 time on soft over hurdles
They were his worst 5 Racing Post Ratings
His 3 runs on Good ground his best 3 runs

THE STEWARD has Cartmel form
I have opposed him a few times
His sires hurdlers over 2m 1f +
Struggle with under 4 hurdle runs
Last time out he was having his 4th run
I rated him the main danger to the winner
But opposed him as he was down 5f in trip
Now having 5 hurdle runs happier with him
I think he has more improvement to come

THE STEWARD can win this
I think the sensible option with 7 runners
Side with the two experienced horses
Fort Jefferson used as a saver bet

Selection

£7 Win Bet THE STEWARD 5/2

£3 Win Bet FORT JEFFERSON 5/2

York 2.25

6/1 Corgi, 13/2 Mekong, 7/1 Making Miracles,
15/2 Supernova, 8/1 Heart Of Grace, 10/1 Berkshire Blue,
14/1 Coolongolook, Ghostwatch, 16/1 Blue Laureate,
16/1 Candidate, Lucky Deal, 20/1 Midnight Wilde,
20/1 Proschema, Sergio Leone, Shuhood,
20/1 Polish.

The Melrose

3yo Handicap over 14f
Only race of it's type in August

No horse has won this race
With a higher rating than 96

PROSCHEMA has a mark of 100
MAKING MIRACLES has a mark of 99

PROSCHEMA is not proven over 14f
He is sired by Declaration Of War
He's never bred a winner over this far
PROSCHEMA has ran just once in 84 days

MAKING MIRACLES has 11 runs now
More than the majority of winners
None with over 9 had over 9st 3lbs

MEKONG comes from a 14f handicap
Since 2004 horses doing that are 0-35
Perhaps they lack necessary improvement
Having already raced over the distance
None with under 7 runs have done it
Those winning 14f handicaps are 1-24
MEKONG is also drawn in stall 16
Since 2001 horses drawn 14 + were 1-33

SERGIO LEONE has 10 career starts
Don't see him staying sired by Acclamation
This sires runners in Class 2 and higher
Have a 0-38 record over 1m 4f and more
MIDNIGHT WILDE has 11 runs
Thats more exposed than
Throw in a 44 day absence he is wrong
Horses with 7 or more career starts
Absent more than 26 days
Have a 0-25 record in this race
MIDNIGHT WILDE fails this 0-25 statistic

GHOSTWATCH also fails this as well
He also comes from a 14f handicap
Since 2004 horses doing that are 0-35
GHOSTWATCH also has stall 1 to overcome

Recent winners of this race
Had 5 6 15 6 6 4 8 8 10 career starts
HEART OF GRACE only has 3 runs
She is a filly with an absence as well
The only filly the only horse with 3 runs
Looks too inexperience in a huge field

Go back 20 years in this race
Horses from Class 4 or lower are 1-63
The only horse that won up 2 grades in class
Was back in 2006 when he won a week before

SHUHOOD comes from a Class 4 race
He has won a week ago like the 2006 winner
But he has more weight than he did
He also has to step up from a 10f race
None of the last 20 winners did that

SUPERNOVA comes from a Class 4 race
That is not a good sign in this race
He is lightly raced and on a hat trick
Not safe up 2 grades given the record
But you could not rule him out

COOLONGOLOOK comes from Class 4
We know horses doing that are just 1-63

CANDIDATE may not have the class
One of the bottomweights up 3 furlongs
Doesn't look good enough to me
LUCKY DEAL lacks positives
Comes from a 1m 6f handicap as well
Since 2004 horses doing that are 0-35
POLISH only has 4 career starts
He needed a better run last time out

BERKSHIRE BLUE won at Ascot
He only has 4 career starts
Horses with under 5 runs
Running in the last 32 days
Return a 0-27 record in this race
Not many win as lightly raced as him
None that did ran so recently before

BLUE LAUREATE has a chance
One of the more exposed runners
Similar traits to the 2015 winner
Not overkeen he is a gelding (2-51)
Rather have a colt but can't rule him out

CORGI has 7 runs and 5 this year
Good safe profile from a 12f handicap
The 2015 2010 and 2016 winners
All had reasonably similar profiles
They all came from the same race as him
Last time out was a career best run
Recorded a decent Racing Post Rating
CORGI has also been put in the St Leger

Selection

CORGI 7/1

Each Way

Curragh 2.55

4/1 Coral Beach, 5/1 Sakura, 11/2 Eagle Song,
13/2 Rangefield Express, 7/1 Lord Rapscallion,
15/2 Dandy Belle, 8/1 Only The Brave, Tosen Shauna,
14/1 Treasure Vale.

6f Nursery

CORAL BEACH is topweight

She's been losing fans all year
She has been beaten 7 times
The last 6 of these at 9/4 or shorter
Reputation of being a scoundrel
I think thats grossly unfair on her

She was starting to show improvement
Then went into two races in big fields
2nd and 3rd in those She ran really well
Trip and ground caught her out last time
But She has not been ridden very well
Has gone wide round bends held up
She's always shown that she can quicken
Top weight in a nursery I do quite like her
Might be very hard to kick her out of the 3

There are obvious dangers
But few that really scare me

SAKURA is a filly from a 5f race
I looked at fillies doing this
Having had under 4 career starts
There are winners doing this
But those beaten last time were 1-52
SAKURA shares this 1-52 profile

LORD RAPSCALLION may not stay
I didn't think he got home at Fairyhouse
The Racing Post think 6f is ideal
I think they have that wrong

EAGLE SONG has 69 days off
Nurseries in August
Since 1997
Any Distance
Any Class of race
Horses with 4 or more runs
Absent more than 50 days
Returned a 0-86 record
EAGLE SONG shares this 0-86 profile
Will do well to win absent that long

CORAL BEACH looks well placed here
For every criticism you can throw at her
I think you can with most of her rivals
I think she should be going close in this

Selection

CORAL BEACH 11/4

Each Way

Now Changed to Win Only

York 3.00

2/1 Expert Eye, 5/2 Suedois, 13/2 Above The Rest,
10/1 Tabarrak, 10/1 Donjuan Triumphant,
14/1 So Beloved, 14/1 Arbalet, 16/1 Gordon Lord Byron,
33/1 Nebo

City of York Stakes
Listed race over 7f

23 of the past 25 winners
Were unexposed aged 3-4-5

One of the main issues this year
We have no 4 year olds running
When 4 year olds are the best age

Horses aged 6 or more are just 1-43
SUEDOIS 3rd last year is now a 7yo
Above The Rest is older than ideal
So Beloved is an 8yo and rejected

With no 4 year olds
I would rather have a 3 year old
Who have now won this 3 years in a row
EXPERT EYE is a 3yo down from a mile
Very impressive winning the 7f Jersey
We opposed him last time over a mile
Based on his sires pattern record over 8f
All 29 that had previously tried failed
Back to his correct distance will suit him
He is 4 years younger than his market rival
He should win this without any 4 year olds

Selection

EXPERT EYE 5/4

Win Bet

Goodwood 3.50

5/4 Maid Up, 15/8 Ben Vrackie, 5/2 Cypress Creek.

March Stakes
Group 3 for 3 year olds over 1m 6f

MAID UP was 2nd at Goodwood last time
Racing Post Rating of 107 that day
That stands out a mile in this race

BEN VRACKIE has a career best of 95
CYPRESS CREEK a career best of 94
MAID UP is comfortably ahead of both

Not sure we can trust that rating
But if we can she should be taking this
The other issue is she is a filly
Not safe to look at past renewals
As recently older horses were eligible
Nowadays this is a 3yo only race

BEN VRACKIE only has 3 career starts
That would worry me in this race

July August September October
Pattern races over 1m 6f and more
Show horses with under 4 runs
Have a 0-27 record in this race
BEN VRACKIE shares this 0-27 record

I'd rather split the other pair
CYPRESS CREEK has every chance
My Breeding stats like him best of all

Selection

The following staking
Buys Maid Up out of the race
Returning £9 of our £10 if she wins
Cypress Creek then becomes a 5/4 chance
To beat 1 horse who is less experienced

£6 Win Bet CYPRESS CREEK 11/4

£4 Win Bet MAID UP 5/4

York 4.50

6/1 Alfarris, Communique, 7/1 Banditry, Pivoine,
10/1 Another Touch, 11/1 Exhort, Kings Gift,
14/1 Gulf Of Poets, 16/1 Aasheq, Alemaratalyoum,
16/1 Mooltazem, Scottish Summit, Society Red,
25/1 Awake My Soul, 25/1 Nicholas T,
33/1 King's Pavilion, 33/1 Thomas Cranmer.

10f Handicap

Obviously very complex
I would oppose the 3 year olds
We had a 3yo filly win recently
But overall they are just 1-42 in this race
ALFARRIS is drawn 20
Similar races since 2011
Show horses drawn 18 + are 1-41

Since 1997
York 10f races
Class 2 and higher
Horses drawn 18 + are 1-65
ALFARRIS is rejected drawn 10
18 of his 19 opponents
Have more runs this season as well
KING'S GIFT is rejected drawn 19
EXHORT rejected aged 18

Older winners are rare
Just 2 of the last 20 were aged 6 or more
The percentage call would be to avoid these
BANDITRY is a fancied 6 year old
I would be wary about older horses here
Besides that he comes from a 12f race
Horses from 11f or more
Have a 0-25 record in the last 20 renewals
NICHOLAS T has a similar problem

There is a good trial race for this
10f Goodwood handicap 25 days ago
6 of the last 12 winners came from it

Horses aged under 6
Coming from this Goodwood race
Starting under 16/1 in that race
Beaten in that race
But not by more than 10 lengths
Return an excellent 6-18 record
This profile won this in these years
2005 2009 2011 2012 2015 2016

PIVORINE shares this profile
He looks the sensible choice in this
His main market rivals in the market
Include a horse with a horrible draw
A 3yo who have a miserable record
A 6yo in a race older types really win

Selection

PIVORINE 9/2

Each Way

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