Statistical Analysis Saturday 1st September

in #gambling6 years ago

Curragh 1.10

5/4 Sydney Opera House, 5/1 Norway, 13/2 Tinandali,
8/1 Aced It, 10/1 Mr Secretary, Patrick Sarsfield, 12/1 Kinch,
16/1 Japan, 25/1 These Days, 33/1 Lightsider,
40/1 Ideal Pal, 50/1 Pearl Warrior, Puma Strike.

2yo Maiden over 8f

SYDNEY OPERA HOUSE
Hasn't done much wrong at all
Drawn 17 of 18 on his debut here
Then bumping into a good horse
Coming back from his debut quickly

I never fully trust these situations
With his stablemate as 2nd favourite
And a big field of potential improvers
The Each Way double can be drafted in
This is how I would play the race
As there is a similar type at Beverley

HAWTHORN ROSE runs there at 1.35
Nice pedigress and plenty of promise
But you can't know if she has enough
You could use both horses together
Not one of the better bets today though

Selection

Small Stakes

Curragh 1.10 - Sydney Opera House 5/4

Beverley 1.35 - Hawthorn Rose 6/4

Each Way Double

Curragh 1.40

13/8 Bandiuc Eile, 11/4 Just Wonderful, 9/2 Chynna,
10/1 Dragon Roll, Lightning Amber, 14/1 Fleeting,
14/1 Peach Tree, 25/1 Vallambrosa, 50/1 Bodhicitta.

2yo Fillies Group 3 over a mile

Both the numbers and the market
Suggest it may be a 3 horse race
I am not keen on the 3rd favourite

CHRNNA doesn't convince me
Don't want a Mick Channon horse
Against Aidan O'Brien and Jim Bolger
If you look at her sire Gregorian
He's yet to sire a winner over this trip
He's yet to sire a winner on this ground
CHRNNA therefore looks risky

BANDIUS EILE is favourite
She has the best numbers
Thats why she is favourite

None of these have ran over 8f before
But over shorter her numbers are better
BANDIUS EILE may well be good enough
But something troubles me

BANDIUS EILE was beaten in 2 maidens
She lost at 7/1 and 33/1 and failed to win
She then went to a Group 2 race at 50/1

She has started 7/1 33/1 50/1 in 3 races

JUST WONDERFUL in contrast
Won his maiden first time out at 9/2
He was then 2/1 favourite at Royal Ascot

At that time Bandiuc Eile was unraced
And a few days from her debut at 33/1
The contrast there is quite vivid
JUST WONDERFUL flopped at Ascot
But he was 13/8 in an Irish Group race

I just think the races She ran in
And the Prices she was starting in them
Trumps anything done by Bandiuc Eile
Who is after all still a maiden
The Numbers suggest I am wrong
But based purely on superficial evidence
JUST WONDERFUL may just Trump her

Selection

JUST WONDERFUL 7/4

Win Bet

Sandown 1.50

100/30 Rapid Applause, 7/1 Global Applause,
8/1 Bahamian Sunrise, 9/1 Rio Ronaldo, Shamshon,
10/1 Intense Romance, 11/1 Haddaf, Signore Piccolo,
12/1 Soie D'Leau, 14/1 Compas Scoobie, Jashma,
20/1 Looks A Million, May Remain, Pettochside.

5f Handicap
0-97 rated horses

Sandown 5f Handicaps
Since 2011
Horses drawn 11 or higher
Have a 1-69 record
Those absent over 7 days are 0-63
High drawn horses look too unsafe

SOIE D'LEAU is rejected drawn 11
MAY REMAIN is rejected drawn 12
JASHMA is badly drawn in Stall 13
BAHAMIAN SUNSET is out drawn 14

Horses aged 3 have struggled in this
HADDAF is a 3yo with 9st 12lbs
Asking a lot to give older types weight
LOOKS A MILLION is a 3yo filly
Asking too much with a 96 day absence
MAY REMAIN is a 3yo with a bad draw

PETTOCHSIDE is a 9yo
He has never won off his current rating
Needs a career best
SIGNORE PICCOLO may be out of his depth
Not running good enough numbers
Has never won in this class before

RAPID APPLAUSE is 6 absent 118 days
Horses aged 6 or more
Absent more than 65 days
Have a 1-65 record in similar races
Those with 9st 4lbs or more were 0-19
All his best numbers are over 6f
He is still unexposed over this trip
But no evidence to suggest he can win
When having a bit weight and absence

INTENSE ROMANCE has a chance
But she needs to be close to her best
She has raced just once in 64 days
She has never ran here before as well

RIO RONALDO likes it here
But he was well beaten last time
If you look at his Handicap wins
He has won off marks of 77 80 81 76 78
Today he has to try and win off 86
When you factor he is 0-14 above Class 4
And has lost all 10 times he raced in Class 3
He needs a career best after a poor run

GLOBAL APPLAUSE is a 4yo
He is absent 106 days
Horses aged 4 absent over 70 days
Have a modest 1-44 record
Those with 9st or more were 0-33
GLOBAL APPLAUSE fails this 0-33 angle
Will do well to defy topweight with that absence
First run for a new stable as well

SHAMSHON has every chance
He ran yesterday over course/distance
Beaten 4.75 lengths he didn't run too bad
Have to factor in the possibility
That this more valuable race
Was the main target race for him
And yesterday was meant to tune him uP
He has won better races off higher marks
He has also won over course/distance
He will need luck in running

COMPASS SCOOBIE is a 5yo
He ran only 7 days ago
Interesting off a mark of 74
A year ago he won a handicap off 87
Has to be part of the staking at 14/1

Selection

£4.50 Each Way COMPASS SCOOBIE 12/1

£1.00 Win Bet SHAMSHON 14/1 +

Curragh 2.15

5/2 Perfect Tapatino, 5/1 Fiannaiocht, 7/1 Vastonea,
8/1 Park Row, 10/1 Castle Guest, 10/1 Serefeli,
10/1 Mnemonic Alexander, 12/1 Rince Deireanach,
14/1 Roccia Bella, 14/1 Daly An Sceil, 16/1 Queluz,
16/1 Pari Passu, 16/1 Hasimiyya, 16/1 Shemara,
20/1 Happy Company, 20/1 Reverberation,
25/1 Brokopondo, 25/1 Pirate's Treasure, 25/1 Yamato,
25/1 Hyperdrive, 25/1 Our Legend, 25/1 Loudest Whisper,
25/1 Vocal Queen, 33/1 Maximus Daia, 50/1 Our Channel,
50/1 Alpine Peak

10f Handicap

Looks a bit ridiculous with 26 runners
Interested in the Draw
The higher you are drawn
From Stall 18 or higher
The more you have to prove
VASTONEA as an example is drawn 24
I can't bet a 10 year old drawn that high here

FIANNAIOCHT runs again
Backed him last time each way at 5/1
See him as a well handicapped horse
See him as definitely a horse to follow

Not for me today
This is a much better race
This a massive field as well
And he is going up over 2f
If he wins so be it but can't play

PERFECT TAPATINO is only 2/1
Joseph O'Brien's favourite looked short
Thats a bit tight in a 26 runner race

Ran his profile expecting to find issues
Such as having had just 1 run this year
Surprisingly similar types were 2-12
His profile is acceptable if you bet him
But in a huge field I have to bail out

What would interest me
If PERFECT TAPATINO stays strong
And under 5/2 in the market
It may be better value to go place only
If he is trading at 4/6 with 4 + places
That may be a better bet than 2/1 to win

No Selection

Newton Abbot 2.30

2/1 Roll The Dough, 9/4 On Demand,
5/2 Barton Rose, 10/1 Foundation Man,
14/1 Full Shift

Handicap Chase over 2m 5f

ROLL THE DOUGH has 112 days off
Despite that I find him very interesting
He looks extremely well treated to me

I've opposed him many times
When he has raced over 3m or more
I don't think he stays that far
Most of his latest runs were over 3m
It's seen him drop from 125 to 101
Now he can run over a more suitable trip
Off a radically reduced handicap rating

ON DEMAND is a mare
She is absent 145 days and has topweight

Handicap Chases
August and September
Any Distance
Any Class

Mares of any age
Absent more than 44 days
Carrying 11st 2lbs or more
Return a 0-47 record
ON DEMAND shares this 0-47 profile
She may well defy an obscure angle
But that tells me she may be vulnerable

If you think about it
BARTON ROSE is also a mare
She has a 41 day absence
Had that been a 44 day absence
She'd have failed the same stat !!
She only just survives it by 3 days
I see her as a danger though
You have to in a small field

FULL SPIRIT lost 39 lengths 11 days ago
First run for a new stable
Maybe he will bounce back
But his last few runs all heavy defeats
I see no reason to trust him today

ROLL THE DOUGH is my choice
His profile is not as safe as I'd like
But it is more neutral than negative
He does look handicapped to win
So relying on his trainer to get him fit

Selection

ROLL THE DOUGH 9/4

Win Bet

Beverley 2.45

5/2 Take Cover, 7/2 Final Venture, 5/1 Mr Lupton,
6/1 Elnadim Star, 8/1 Mythmaker, 12/1 Mirza,
16/1 Line Of Reason, 20/1 Foolaad, Tanasoq,
25/1 Tricksy Spirit, 50/1 Short Call.

Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes

Always disliked this race
Probably as so many win with absences
Just wanted to make some points

TAKE COVER is now a 11 year old
He did win this last year as a 10yo
But I can not trust him at that age

Since 1997
Listed and Group races
Run over 1m 4f or shorter
Horses aged 11 + have a 0-42 record

No 11yo in over 20 years now
Have won a pattern race short of 12f
TAKE COVER is trying to be the first
He would not be my choice
MIRZA is also an 11 year old
Rejected for the same reasons

MR LUPTON is drawn 10
TANASOQ is drawn 11

That would put me off a bit
Look at recent draws in this

2017 Stall 2 beat Stall 7
2016 Stall 4 beat Stall 2
2015 Stall 4 beat Stall 3
2014 Stall 1 beat Stall 9
2013 Stall 2 beat Stall 4
2012 Stall 1 beat Stall 7

ELNADIM STAR is a 3yo filly
She has a 70 day absence
Doesn't appeal much to me
But I know this race quite well
Many horses with breaks have won
No 3yo filly yet so I won't select her

Shortlist

FINAL VENTURE ran 6 days ago
Recent runs not always helpful here
Horses running with 7 days are 0-13
One of the reasons I hate the race

Last Time Out Racing Post Ratings

FINAL VENTURE achieved a 109 rating
The next bet rating was 102
He is well clear on those rating
Needs to be part of the staking plan

MYTHMAKER has positives
He is well drawn and a fair price
But his 5f runs are so rare
Asking quite a bit to win this at 5f
When he could miss the break drawn 1

Shortlist

MYTHMAKER
FINAL VENTURE

Never fully trusted this race
The logical bet based on the numbers
May be one thats unsafe on past renewals

FINAL VENTURE 100/30 - 7/2

Each Way

Curragh 2.50

9/4 Mary Tudor, 11/4 Desert Diamond, 6/1 Hence,
8/1 I'm So Fancy, 10/1 Turret Rocks, 10/1 Adorable,
10/1 Dynabee, 12/1 Espere, 14/1 Snowy Winter,
25/1 Erin, 25/1 Beach Wedding

Group 3 race
Fillies over 9f

We want a 3yo not going up in trip
The last 8 winners were 3 year olds
Horses aged 4 + have a 1-39 record in this

Horses from 8f have struggled
Horses up in distance are 0-31 in this

Best Profile

Horses aged 3
Under 10 career starts
Running within 56 days
Coming from 9f or more
Beaten under 10 lengths last time
Horses with this profile had a 8-16 record
The winners in these years had this profile
The 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

That leaves a shortlist of 4

Mary Tudor - Desert Diamond
Dynabee - Erin

ERIN 33/1 made this shortlist
But no winners came from handicaps

DYNABEE made this shortlist
But she has only has 2 career runs
The 2010 winner did have 2 runs like her
But the last 5 winners had 5-9 runs

I'd rather stay with the more suitable types
MARY TUDOR can not be ruled out
But does have to drop down in distance
DESERT DIAMOND looks a strong runner

Selection

DESERT DIAMOND 2/1

Win Bet

Beverley 3.20

5/1 Bondi Beach Boy, Our Little Pony, 6/1 Musharrif,
12/1 Elysian Flyer, Gamesome, Lexington Place,
14/1 Gold Stone, Rickyroadboy, 16/1 Bomad,
16/1 Dahik, Desert Ace, Point Of Woods, 20/1 Scuzeme,
25/1 Bosham, Computable, Defining Moment.

5f Handicap

Looks ridiculously hard

OUR LITTLE PONY makes no appeal
His career best Racing Post Rating is 70
Many beat that last time out

OUR LITTLE PONY lacks backclass
She is only a small filly
Couldn't touch her in a 17 runner race
GOLD STONE is a 3yo filly
Her form is tied up with Our Little Pony

MUSHARRIF has a chance
But has to drop from 7f to 5f

GAMESOME is interesting
Now has a career low mark
The downside is his 1-40 record

Rated 100 at the start of 2015
Rated 99 at the start of 2016
Rated 93 at the start of 2017
Rated 75 at the start of 2018

GAMESOME is now rated only 68
He is a very well handicapped horse
Look at his last 2 races
Both were over this Course/Distance
Both times he was drawn 12
Had the widest draw in both races
He really caught the eye last time
GAMESOME looks about ready to win
With 4 places he would be my choice
My only worry is so many runners

Selection

GAMESOME 6/1

Each Way

1/4 Odds 1-2-3-4

Sandown 3.35

Evs Too Darn Hot, 5/1 Confiding,
6/1 Arthur Kitt, Watan, 7/1 Dunkerron,
16/1 Victory Command.

Solario Stakes
Group 3 race over 7f

TOO DARN HOT won on debut
Excited everyone and very sexy

But when you think about this
Every other horse has more experience
Every other horse has better numbers
On Racing Post Ratings
TOO DARN HOT comes out bottom
He also drops from 8f to 7f
No past winner of this race did that
Only 6 tried but none managed it
Too risky to bet him at a short price

I'd rather play the race this way

£6.25 Win Bet Arthur Kitt 7/1

£1.25 Win Bet Watan 6/1

£1.25 Win Bet Confiding 7/1

£1.25 Win Bet Dunkerron 7/1

I'd rather have 4 on side
Even if 3 of these are savers

Sandown 4.10

7/4 Barristan The Bold, 9/2 Even Keel,
5/1 Smile A Mile, 6/1 Uncle Jerry, 7/1 Reconnaissance,
10/1 Big Boots, 12/1 Steeve, 12/1 Camachess

7f Nursery

BARRISTAN THE BOLD has topweight
I would rather look elsewhere

He has the highest weight
He has the longest absence
Whilst 30 days off isn't too bad
Every past winner had shorter absences

It is stamina that puts me off
On this track and its uphill finish
I would question him getting home
I may be wrong
But predicting he will fade late

Any alternative selection
Could only be a guess in this race

I prefer one of these

Even Keel 5/1
Smile a Mile 7/1
Reconnaissance 7/2
Uncle Jerry 8/1

You could actually bet all 4
With 3 savers and a win bet

Reconnaissance has 3 runs
Uncle Jerry has 3 runs
I would pencil them in as savers

EVEN KEEL Has 5
SMILE A MILE has 4

I would make one of these my bet
And saver on the other 3 horses

I don't have any strong preference
I am just against the 7/4 favourite
Who I hope will run out of petrol

Chester 4.25

5/2 Growl, 4/1 Powerallied, 7/1 Dark Shot,
9/1 Bossipop, 10/1 Confessional,
11/1 Reputation, 12/1 Sanaadh, Show Stealer,
12/1 Venturous, 14/1 Copper Knight.

5f Handicap

Go back 2 weeks
Ripon's Great St Wilfred
I fancied GROWL each way
Mainly because he was well treated
Having dropped from 109 to 99
He ran a decent 3rd that day
He achieved a 102 Racing Post Rating

Last time out Racing Post Ratings

102 Growl
94 Powerallied
91 Copper Knight
88 Dark Shot
87 Show Stealer
86 Sanaadh
84 Reputation
80 Confessional
82 Venturous
78 Bossipop

GROWL is 8lbs clear on last time numbers

I suppose given he is topweight
That is not too unexpected
And he has to give weight away
But when I look at the weights
I think he should be doing this

COPPER NIGHT is 2nd topweight
He has Stall 11 of 11 to overcome here

REPUTATION is rated 91
He has hardly ever ran over 5f

If we can get the above 2 horses beaten
GROWL only faces a 0-90 class race here

The trip may be on the short side
But this is only 110yds shot of 6f
And I think he has the class to win

DARK SHOT is a danger
But he is 0-13 above Class 3
Has never won off his current rating
His handicap runs rated 82 or more are 0-15

GROWL looks the one
I am betting him each way

Selection

GROWL 5/2

Each Way

Newton Abbot 4.50

13/8 Hello Fellas, 2/1 Top Chief,
5/2 The Flame, 12/1 Dry Ol'Party.

Novice Handicap Chase
Run over 3m1f and 170 yards

Interesting Statistically
But a small field could spoil angles

THE FLAME is a 5yo with topweight
He has to carry 12st 4lbs aged 5 !!!

Novice Handicap Chases
Since 2007
Run over 3m 2f +
Any time of year
Any Class of race

Horses aged 5 are 0-30
THE FLAME doesn't technically fail that
As this is 3m 1f and 170 yards
It is a few yards short of 3m 2f
But he almost fails it
And with Topweight as well
I'd be inclined to oppose him

HELLO FELLAS is a chase debutant
Asking a lot to win on chasing debut
When over as far as this race

Handicap Chases
August and September
Run over 2m 7f and more
Chasing debutants
Aged 6 or more
Return a 0-40 record
HELLO FELLAS has this profile

Not too sold on this angle
Some have won in July + October

TOP CHIEF could take advantage
Not sure he properly stays this far
But 2nd over course/distance 11 days ago
My angles think he is the safest bet

I think one or two will win
TOP CHIEF
HELLO FELLAS

I fear the Skelton horse
Who has just upgraded stables
Reluctantly I will side with the profiles

Selection

TOP CHIEF 2/1-9/4

Win Bet

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