Statistical Analysis Saturday 18th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Ripon 1.30

6/4 Off Piste, 9/4 Whiskey And Water,
7/2 Immokalee, 12/1 Palazzo,
20/1 Chiniak, 25/1 The Gabba,
33/1 Ritchie Star, 66/1 Alfred The Grey.

2yo Novice over 8f

Not many can win this race

OFF PISTE sets the standard
But not the highest of standards
He is not the biggest of horses
That would be one of my concerns
Can we be sure Stall 9 helps

Ripon 8f races
Since 2014
Under 12 runners
Horses with under 5 runs
Have a 26-176 record in these races
Those drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6 were 26-151
Those drawn 7 or higher were 0-25

OFF PISTE stall 9 may not be well drawn

PALAZZO needs abnormal improvement

WHISKEY AND WATER has every chance

IMMOKALEE is interesting
He has the most experience here
His trainer says he is disappointing
That is probably fair comment

I made her a negative at Thirsk
She may have gone off too fast at Chester
Last time she was a handicap debutant
Not an easy task with 3 runs at Catterick
There are potential excuses

What I like about her is her placing
This is a race for horses costing under 35k
The cheaper the purchase price
The less weight you carry
IMMOKALEE only cost under 12k
She gets the fillies allowance
She claims more weight than most
Because of her lower sales price
That gives her an excellent chance

Selection

IMMOKALEE 5/2

I would happily go each way myself
But the price is shorter now

Option 2

£7.00 Win Bet IMMOKALEE 5/2
£3.00 Win Bet WHISKEY AND WATER 9/4

Option 2
IMMOKALEE 5/2

Win Bet or Each Way

Doncaster 1.45

3/1 Alba Del Sole, 7/2 Musharrif,
6/1 Abushamah, 7/1 Ghost, 8/1 Sunstorm,
10/1 Pursuing Steed, 14/1 Munthany,
16/1 Tukhoom, 16/1 Roaring Forties

7f Handicap
350 similar races in August
There are a couple I am opposing
Horses from 5f races were 0-74
MUSHARRIF shares this 0-74 record

ALBA DEL SOLE is a 3yo filly from 6f
GHOST is a 3yo filly from 6f
Occasionally these types win
But neither are exact matches
ALBA DEL SOLE has raced once in 75 days
MUNTHANY was hammered last time
DASHEEN wouldn't be first choice
Not on this ground after last time
ROARING FORTIES isn't running well

Shortlist

SUNSTORM can win off 57
Has been running himself fit

PURSUING STEED - Safe profile

ABUSHAMAH has positives
He needs a small field
This is his time of year

Selection

Option 1

If 8 run

PURSUING STEED 4/1

Each Way

Option 2

PURSUING STEED 4/1 Win Bet
SUNSTORM 9/1 Saver Bet
ABUSHAMAH 7/1 Saver

Newbury 2.25

11/4 Hamada, 3/1 Raymond Tusk, 9/2 Dal Harraild,
5/1 Algometer, 7/1 Walton Street, 10/1 Perfect Clarity,
16/1 On To Victory,

Geoffrey Freer Stakes
Group 3 race over 1m 5f

RAYMOND TUSK has 4 career starts
That looks a bit inexperienced to me
Past winners had these runs
6 9 6 23 10 19 6 7 6 14 12 12
The last 12 winners had 6 + runs
The 3 year olds that have won this
Had 6 6 6 6 8 5 7 career starts
RAYMOND TUSK has fewer than all
I am opposing him because of this
PERFECT CLARITY has the same problem
He is also opposed with just 4 runs
ONE TO VICTORY has too much on

DAL HARRAILD must be respected
But his best numbers are on firmer ground
He is not the biggest of horses
Has to drop 3 furlongs in trip as well
Could win but has quite a bit to prove

WALTON STREET is a lightly raced 4yo
There have been similar types win this
But he's raced once in 177 days now
No 4yo came from a handicap either

ALGOMETER has a strong chance
No problem with ground or stamina
Has the best last time out numbers

HAMADA is an improving 4yo
He has improved his numbers every run
Only 1 past winner came via handicaps
None aged 4 like him have done that
But he has the most scope of all of them

HAMADA 11/4 is a sensible saver
He could also be an each way single
ALGOMETER 6/1 appeals around 11/2
The horses with 6-9 career starts
Tend to do well in this recently
So I want them on my side
Which leads to staggered staking

Selection

£6.00 Win Bet ALGOMETER 6/1

£2.50 Win Bet HAMADA 11/4

£1.50 Win Bet WALTON STREET 7/1

Newmarket 2.45

3/1 Buffer Zone, 9/2 Rebel Streak, Staxton,
5/1 Jawwaal, 6/1 Count Otto, 10/1 Airshow,
12/1 Neola,

6F Handicap for 3 year olds
Unfortunately now just 7 runners

BUFFER ZONE has 5 runs
He has fewer runs than all of these

Past winners had the following runs
10 7 9 7 7 11 12 6 5 7
Only 1 winner had under 6 runs
That was 9 years ago now
A horse that carried less weight

What bothers me more
He has 2 runs this season
Every other horse has at least 2 more
Past winners runs this season
5 5 3 5 5 4 8 4 2 7
Again just the 2009 winner had 2 runs
The horse that had less weight
Not going to risk him because of this

Horses in this race
With 13 or more career starts
Have a 0-31 record in this race
The following horses fail this

NEOLA with 17 runs is exposed
AIRSHOW has 14 runs failing this 0-31 angle
COUNT OTTO also fails this

Horses absent more than 28 days
Have a 0-30 record in this race
Happy to be a bit lenient with this angle
But over 50 days is too lenient
BUFFER ZONE fails this

STAXTON passes my angles so far
Bit last time out winners are 1-33 in this
That is not very reassuring
Horses with 6 + runs
Winning last time out
Have a 0-27 record in this race
And since the 2005 renewal
Horses with 9st 5lbs or more
Have a 0-15 in this race

REBEL STREAK won last time
We know horses like that don't score well
But with a recent run could easily win

JAWWAAL a positive
Excuses in his last 2 runs
Given both had 20 runners in them
Before those runs he had career bests

COUNT OTTO has 13 runs
Only 1 more than the right range
But with a recent run as well
And a light weight
With numbers suggesting he is well in
He needs to make the starting grid

COUNT OTTO ran at Goodwood
He ran in the Stewards Sprint
First 4 home were drawn 7 3 9 1
He had to cope with Stall 22 that day
He was only beaten just over 2 lengths
The 2015 winner came from the same race
I think off 8st 5lbs he is the best option

Selection

£6 Win Bet COUNT OTTO 7/1

£2 Win Bet JAWWAAL 9/2

£2 Win Bet REBEL STREAK 4/1

Ripon 3.15

7/1 Growl, 9/1 Golden Apollo, Spring Loaded,
10/1 Pipers Note, Shanghai Glory, Teruntum Star,
11/1 Flying Pursuit, Kimberella, 14/1 Gunmetal,
16/1 Dark Power, 20/1 Aeolus, Al Qahwa, Ice Age,
20/1 Marie Of Lyon, 25/1 Brian The Snail,
25/1 Dakota Gold, Foolaad, Henley, Reputation,
33/1 Glen Moss.

Great St Wilfred

Spent a couple of days on this
Full Statistics sent Thursday
Analysis and shortlist sent Friday

The angles in this race
Focus on recent runs
From horses rated 101 or lower

I felt I had reasonably good angles
Against all bar the following 2 horses

Shortlist

GROWL
GOLDEN APPOLO

The following horses
I could turn a blind eye to

Flying Pursuit - Dangerous to oppose
Spring Loaded - Class horse as saver ?
Al Qahwa - like the 2012 winner
No surprise if any of those win
But I am staking the race this way

£5 Win Bet GROWL 8/1

£2.50 Each Way GOLDEN APOLLO 9/1

Doncaster 3.25

11/4 Victory Angel, 7/2 Normandy Barriere,
5/1 Big Storm Coming, 11/2 Breanski,
13/2 Truth Or Dare, 14/1 Ower Fly,
14/1 Theodorico, 20/1 Right Action,
25/1 Al Erayg.

Class 2 handicap over 7f

VICTORY ANGEL is well, backed
Horses like him from 6f races
Do win these races but don't score well
I think he is risky from Stall 11 of 11
The draw is complicated here
But in similar races in similar field sizes
I find very high numbers have struggled
None there are 3 non runners
That makes my draw case weaker

In all similar Class 2 Handicaps
Horses from 6f races
Running within the last 13 days
Return a 0-31 record
NORMANDY BARRIERE has this problem
BIG STORM COMING is an 8yo
Not many his age win these races
He is going up 2 classes as well
Look at his sire Indesatchell
Horses sired by Indesatchell
Class 3 or higher
Runnng over 7f + are just 1-52
OWER FLY is unproven in class + rating

TRUTH OF DARE is 0-18 in this class
Not impossible he could correct that

Shortlist

BREANSKI is a 4yo winning last time
He has just moved stables
Won on his first run for a new stable
That produced a career best rating
4 year olds winning last time
Absent 16-24 days have a 5-7 record
Those with 15-18 career starts were 2-3
BREANSKI's profile as good as anything

Selection

BREANSKI 11/2

Each Way

Newbury 3.35

9/4 Gustav Klimt, 7/2 Librisa Breeze, 7/2 Sir Dancealot,
8/1 Breton Rock, Dream Of Dreams, 9/1 Yafta,
25/1 Dan's Dream, 33/1 Tomyris.

Hungerford Stakes
Never been a great trial race

SIR DANCELOT has a Group 2 penalty
I don't like that given his rating of 116
He has to give Gustav Klimpt 8lbs weight
When that horse is actually rated higher
SIR DANCELOT is rejected

BRETON is an 8 year old
Past records go back to 1979
No horse as old as him has won this
He is the oldest horse in the race
He has the fewest runs this season
YAFTA is an unlikely stayer in this class

DREAM OF DREAMS has a chance
But he comes from a 6f race
Only 2 of the last 21 winners did that
None of them were aged 4 like him
Horses from 6f races
Running within 8 weeks
Have a 0-18 record in this race

Shortlist

GUSTAV KLIMT is a positive
He is unbeaten at this distance
He has a St James Palace second

LIBRISA BREEZE is the danger

Selection

£7.50 Win Bet GUSTAV KLIMT 2/1

£2.50 Win Bet LIBRISA BREEZE 100/30

Market Rasen 4.55

9/4 Cliffside Park, 11/4 Dream Free,
9/2 King Alfonso, Stuccodor, 5/1 Cool Macavity,
20/1 Tiger Trek, 33/1 Crakehall Lad,
66/1 Exit To Freedom, 100/1 Aladdin Sane,
100/1 Monzino.

2m Selling Hurdle

10 runners
6 with chances

Obviously a poor race
Full of dogs and ungenuine types

DREAM FREE looks wrong
5 year olds dont score well
They are 1-70 in all similar races
Run over any distance in August
He is also sired by Oasis Dream
A sire poor with inexperienced hurdlers
He never even completed his only hurdle run

Selling Hurdles in August
Run over any distance
Horses with under 2 hurdle runs
Running within 90 days
Show a 0-61 record
DREAM FREE fails this and is rejected

Some of these have fitness doubts

TIGER TREK is 9 with 1 run in 424 days
He was sold recently for just £600

KING ALONSO is 9 with 1 run in 296 days
He has been the best backed horse
In a race full of smoke and mirrors
Could make sense to but him out of the race

CLIFFSIDE PARK is 9 with 1 run in 235 days
Has the backclass to win this
But current well being is a concern

COOL MACAVITY has recent runs
Can't be sure what form he is in
Given he recently downgraded yards

STUCCODOR has recent runs

STUCCODOR ran on the flat last time
He didn't stay that day given sire stats
His previous race over hurdles
He was topweight in a Class 4 handicap
If he performs he has a strong chance

Selection

£6 Win Bet STUCCODOR 4/1

£2 Win Bet COOL MACAVITY 6/1

£2 Win Bet KING ALONSO 5/1

Ripon 5.00

2/1 Breathable, 7/2 Qawamees,
4/1 Astromachia, 7/1 Dr Richard Kimble.

12f Handicap for 3 year olds

QAWAMEES has plenty to do
I don't like the combination he has
Of going up in trip and carrying topweight

Horses sired by Exceed And Excel
Have won a few races over 11f or more
Those with under 7 career starts were 1-33
The sole winner in an Irish Maiden (Cin Cin)
QAWAMEES only has 4 and has topweight

Small fields can beat any angles
But on what I see I can't go with him
Hard to separate the other options

DR RICHARD KIMBLE has questions
I couldn't match him to any winners

REASSURANCE is a positive
ASTROMACHIA can't be ruled out

BREATHABLE has just done a career best
That was only 5 days ago as well
I'd have to see him as a positive
Playing it this way

Selection

BREATHABLE 6/4

Chepstow 7.10

3/1 Weld Al Emarat, 5/1 Kenstone, 7/1 Satchville Flyer,
10/1 Hedging, Sir Plato, Wahaab, 14/1 Here's Two,
20/1 Tally's Son.

8F Handicap for lady riders

Topweight and morning favourite Redgrave
Has now withdrawn leaving 8 runners

KENSTON is now topweight rated 79
Racing Post Rating of 84 last time out
The best last time out run by some way
That makes him quite interesting
When you consider some of the others

HERE'S TWO is an exposed mare
She has a 77 day absence
All her wins are in lower grades
SATCHVILLE FLYER is an old friend
He is much more effective over shorter
He has to step up from 6f to 8f
His Racing Post Ratings over 8f and more
Are considerably lower than his handicap mark

WELD AL EMARAT is very short of runs
He has raced just once since November 2017
On this track on softer ground
That has to be a worry for an older horse
Who also has a 146 day absence
TALLYS SON is running low numbers

WAHAAB is up in distance
Never won in this class or off his rating
Never won or placed in 3 runs over a mile
Not ruling him out but has question marks

SIR PLATO has a chance
Not the biggest of horses
But can not rule him out

KENSTON has been running himself fit
His last run his best this season
But still only had 4 runs in 9 months
HEDGING comes from the same race
His profile is find and he should go well
He has proven track form on the ground

Selection

HEDGING 9/2

Each Way

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