Statistical Analysis Monday August 27th

in #gambling6 years ago

Southwell 1.50

11/4 Surewhynot, 11/2 Palindrome,
6/1 Filament Of Gold, 13/2 Albert Boy, Onda District,
8/1 Red Douglas, 10/1 Goldfox Girl, 12/1 Snatty Dancer,
14/1 Bushel, 25/1 Lady Natasha, 33/1 Anna Jammeela,
33/1 Glasgon, Young Tom, 50/1 Delicate Footsteps.

12f Handicap
Low grade race

SUREWHYNOT didn't appeal much
She is a 4yo filly absent 116 days
She has to carry topweight as well

Since 2007 Southwell races over 12f +
Show horses drawn 13 + are 1-77
Anna Jammeela is badly drawn
Glasgon is badly drawn
They look short of recent runs
As do the following horses as well

Young Tom has 1 run in 141 days
Bushel is an 8yo absent 86 days
Goldfox Girl is underraced this year
Red Douglas has 1 run in 221 days
Delicate Footsteps has poor numbers
Lady Natasha has the same problem
She has not reached form or fitness

Snatty Dancer is a 3yo filly with 6 runs
Given she has raced once in just 80 days
Not a track I'd want to risk that profile
ONDA DISTRICT has recent runs
Not sure enough runs after 2 years off
Worries me more his new trainer
Who has a 0-47 career record now

Shortlist

FILAMENT OF GOLD has chances
He is a 7yo absent 47 days
Not drawn to that but profiles ok
He has never run here before
He has never won beyond July
Could easily find a saver role for him

ALBERT BOY is fit with recent runs
You can point to a poor 0-9 record here
But he was never fancied in any of them
And not fit in most of those races as well

PALINDROME is fit and running well
Comes from the same race as Albert Boy

Selection

Difficult to stake
Could bet either each way + saver
Hindsight could show thats the way
But decided to go win bet and saver

£8 Win Bet PALINDROME 5/1

£2 Win Bet ALBERT BOY 11/2

Ripon 2.15

100/30 Rock Party, 7/2 Five Amarones,
9/2 Bandola, Be Proud, 7/1 Northern Lass,
9/1 Bouncin Back, 14/1 Brambling,
25/1 Lang Toun Lady, Notthewhitehart,
25/1 Percy Drake, 33/1 Kemmeridge Bay,
33/1 Timetodock, Walela.

2yo seller over 6f
Drawn more to the experienced types
Who have ideally had recent runs as well

27 similar races in August
All 27 ran within the last 6 weeks

Horses with under 3 runs
Have a 0-31 record in this race

NORTHERN LASS has just 1 run
Not safe enough with an absence
BRAMBLING has just 2 runs
Also has 104 days off

PERCY DRAKE has 73 days off the track

FIVE AMARONES has an unsafe profile
His last 2 runs were both heavy defeats
Beaten 14 lengths just 10 days ago
Leaves me a bit cold in a field like this
He probably went off too fast to be fair

BOUNCING BACK has a chance
BANDOLA has a chance
They have enough to nick the race
If one or two of the others fail to perform

ROCK PARTY is respected

BE PROUD interests me
Especially with a 3 day absence
I fancied him at Newmarket 2 runs ago
He had bad draws on his previous 2 runs
Probably a bit too soft at Newmarket
Ran well in a Nursery just 3 days ago
That was over further than this
Ridden by an inexperienced pilot

Not sure entirely what to expect
Coming down over a furlong 3 days ago
Statistically BE PROUD has a neutral profile
What I do like about him though
BE PROUD has raced 3 times in August
None of the others can offer that
Aside from one of the rank outsiders
None have ran more than once in August

Selection

BE PROUD 6/1

Each Way

Epsom 2.30

9/2 Swissal, 5/1 Quick Recovery,
6/1 Charming Guest, 13/2 Haverland,
7/1 Han Solo Berger, Hula Girl,
8/1 The Lamplighter, 12/1 Your Choice.

3yo Handicap over 6f

Complicated and difficult

QUICK RECOVERY has no backclass
HAVERLAND has no backclass either
Neither of these horses
Have raced in Class 4 or higher before
Every other horse in the race has
I wanted a horse with more baccklass
HAVERLAND's raced once in 101 days

CHARMING GUEST is a filly up in trip
That is not a negative statistically
But she is the only horse up in trip
And her last 2 runs won't suffice

HULA GIRL is a filly absent 68 days
That shouldn't be easy to overcome
She is a big runner on her 2yo form
But in races like this when it's soft
Very few fillies win with absences
I do rate her a danger though

SWISSAL has a chance
But given his sire Swiss Spirit
He may well not get home
On Ground softer than good
Horses sired by Swiss Spirit
Have a 0-31 record at 6f
Have a 0-46 record at 6f and beyond

I like the topweight here
HAN SOLO BERGER is the class horse
He did a career best 3 runs ago at Kempton
That was a much better race than this
Two runs ago he was drawn out of it
Stall 1 at Windsor just killed his chance
Ran ok at Newmarket last time
May have gone off too fast that day
That was a big field on a Grade 1 track
The worst horse he faced in that was rated 74
Today his opponents are rated much lower
Connections have eased him in Grade
I hope he could outclass these
His connections say he wants it soft

Selection

HAN SOLO BERGER 4/1

Each Way

Cartmel 2.40

10/11 Good Boy Alfie, 15/8 Ormesher,
5/1 Ghost Serge, 20/1 Surrender.

Juvenile hurdle over 2m 1f

GOOD BOY ALFIE troubles me
He has never ran over hurdles
He is sired by Showcasing
Who has a stamina index of 6.8f
A sire who's bred just 1 hurdle winner

GOOD BOY ALFIE only has 5 runs
He comes from a 10f race on the flat
ORMESHER in contrast
Has won his only hurdle race

August-September-October
Juvenile Hurdles
2m 1f or more

Hurdling debutants
Running within 11 weeks
Under 7 career starts
Coming from 11f or shorter
Return a 0-73 record in these races
GOOD BOY ALFIE shares this 0-73 profile

GHOST SERGE is sired by Zebedee
Who has a stamina index of 6.6f
Horses sired by Zebedee
Running over hurdles
Have a modest 1-76 record

ORMESHER looks the one
He is the only horse with hurdling experience
He managed to win that race as well

Selection

ORMESHER 11/8

Win Bet

Southwell 3.35

9/2 Excessable, 13/2 Poyle Vinnie,
7/1 East Street Revue, Handsome Dude,
15/2 Jabbarockie, 8/1 Jack The Truth, 9/1 Pearl Acclaim,
10/1 Moonraker, 12/1 Tricky Dicky, 14/1 Monks Stand,
16/1 Crosse Fire, Ebitda, 20/1 Boundsy,
33/1 Normal Equilibrium.

5F Handicap for 0-90 rated horses

Ruled out those looking unsuitable
The unfit and those not looking right
I came up with a shortlist of 5 horses
2 of these horses I am not rejecting
Both Jabbarockie and Jack The Truth
Made my original shortlist of 5 horses
But only 3 horses have made the cut

EXCESSABLE 4/1
EAST STREET REVIEW 8/1
POYLE VINNIE 4/1

The main reason these 3 horses
Have been shortlisted ahead of others
Their last time out Racing Post Ratings
They recorded figures of 90 89 90
Every other horse in this race
Achieved considerably lower ratings
They are operating at a higher standard

EXCESSABLE has no Southwell form
Back up in the weights will test him
In a bigger field than he usually wins in
EAST STREET REVIEW has no form here
Very short on any All weather experience

POYLE VINNIE looks the safest choice
Beaten under 3 lengths in the Stewards Cup
Stands out on anything most have done

Option 1

£7.50 Win Bet Poyle Vinnie 4/1
£1.25 Win Bet Excessable 7/1
£1.25 Win Bet East Street Revue 7/1

Option 2
Poyle Vinnie 4/1
Each Way

Given the prices
I decided to go with a win bet instead

Selection

POYLE VINNIE 7/2

Win Bet

Southwell 4.45

4/1 Subjectivity, 5/1 Break The Silence,
11/2 Unnoticed, 6/1 Sarangoo, 7/1 The Gingerbreadman,
10/1 Hugie Boy, 14/1 Good Impression, Jackontherocks,
14/1 Mime Dance, 20/1 Canimar, 20/1 General Tufto,
25/1 Poppy May.

7f Handicap for horses rated 0-60

The lower weights look outclassed
I can nothing appealing about them
Didn't want to trust the 3 year olds

SUBJECTIVITY is a 4 year old
Who has raced only 3 times before
Not a safe enough profile with topweight
Felt his inexperience would hurt him

Only 3 horses were shortlistable

SARANGOO
BREAK THE SILENCE
UNNOTICED

BREAK THE SILENCE is s saver

SARANGOO is a 10 year old mare
Who has never raced here before
Hardly sounds very reassuring
But she has very recent runs
Enjoys a fitness edge over these

UNNOTICED has a poor 1-40 strike rate
That is a misleading statistic though
If you ignore his form in higher grades
Concentrate on his Class 6 races
When on sand running over 7f
He has a high place strike rate and a win
His Numbers in these races and at Southwell
Are Good enough to win this kind of race

Selection

£7 Win Bet UNNOTICED 4/1

£2 Win Bet BREAK THE SILENCE 4/1

£1 Win Bet SARANGOO 8/1

Chepstow 4.55

5/2 Popsicle, 4/1 Imbucato,
10/1 Madame Jo Jo, 12/1 False Id,
12/1 Social Butterfly, 14/1 Indiana Dawn, 16/1 Star Girl,
20/1 Spirit Of Ishy, 25/1 Concur, Secret Glance,
33/1 One Liner.

7f Handicap

POPSICLE can win this
Having won just 4 days ago
He is the fittest horse in the race
He has the best last time out numbers

Topweight is SECRET GLANCE
He looks underraced this season
If we can get him beaten as expected
POPSICLE then faces only a 0-50 class field

CONCUR is unlikely to be fit enough
FALSE ID has to drop 3f in distance
STAR GIRL is too inexperienced
SPIRIT OF ISHY a filly with an absence
MADAME JO JO has 17 lifetime runs
Career best Racing Post Rating of 59
Exposes her as modest
IMBUCTO has a chance
But on his win 4 days ago
POPSICLE has most positives

Selection

Small Stakes

POPSICKLE 13/8-7/4

Win Bet

Cartmel 5.00

100/30 Volcanic, Wynford, 11/2 Allbarnone,
13/2 Court King, William Of Orange, 12/1 Ennistown,
12/1 Island Heights, Nautical Nitwit, 25/1 Boruma,
25/1 Minella Charmer, Samsara.

Handicap Hurdle over 3m 1f

Stamina could be an issue here
VOLCANIC is 0-10 over 3m and more
His sire's hurdles have not won past 3m
I would question his stamina over this far
COURT KING has breeding doubts
His sires runners over 3m 1f + are 0-24
He could still stay well enough to win
But he may just prefer a shorter trip
NAUTICAL NITWIT also fails breeding stats
ALLBARNONE has factors against him
Not least just 1 run in 221 days now
WYNFORD is the youngest horse
Throw in a 50 day absence as well
Not sure I'd want a 5yo in this kind of race
Especially on this track in a decent field
MINELLA CHARMER has fitness questions

ENNISTOWN is respected
But he has topweight to overcome
When ridden by a 10lbs claimer
And just 2 races in the last 11 months

WILLIAM OF ORANGE has a chance
He has less against him than most
Not a race I can be confident about
So I am going to split stake this race

Selection

Small Stakes

£5 Win WILLIAM OF ORANGE 8/1

£5 Place COURT KING 6/4

Downpatrick 5.05

4/5 Caltex, 11/8 Orion D'Aubrelle,
14/1 Triolet, 20/1 Celebrity Status,
25/1 Ardview Boy, Unchago,
50/1 Bonnie Lily, 66/1 Lisnagreggan.

Beginners Chase
Looks a possible match
CALTEX is my preference

ORION D'AUBRELLE has a chance
But just came up short in many areas

CALTEX is older
He has more experience
He has better numbers
He has more recent runs
He looks a bigger horse

Selection

CALTEX 4/5

Win Bet

Southwell 5.20

5/2 Seaforth, 7/2 Limerick Lord, 5/1 Sunstorm,
11/2 Gilmer, 6/1 Thunderbell, 9/1 Bee Machine,
16/1 Finsbury Park, Ideal Angel, 25/1 Nellie's Dancer,
50/1 Fossa, Vicky Cristina.

7f Handicap

Had a good look at these
GILMER Is hard to rule out completely
But felt he was short of runs this season
SUNSTORM is a 3 year old
Wasn't prepared to trust him drawn 1
BEE MACHINE is also a 3 year old
His numbers are not strong enough
To warrant risking against older horses

SEAFORTH could win this kind of race
But he has no form at Southwell

LIMERICK LORD is the safer option

Selection

LIMERICK LORD 11/4

Win Bet

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