Statistical Analysis Monday 3rd September

in #gambling5 years ago

Brighton 2.30

Evs Make A Wish, 4/1 Mawahib, 6/1 Gold Arrow,
10/1 Lady Scatterley, 12/1 Djibouti, Miss President,
20/1 Keyhaven, 25/1 I'm Freezing, 33/1 A Spirit Of Love,
50/1 Jojo, 100/1 Quintana Roo.

6f Maiden

MAKE A WISH sets the standard
Reasonable one without being dominant
Add points for connections and pedigree
Also interesting Ryan Moore rides
As this is his only ride on the card

Brighton throws up few unraced winners
When the field size is as big as this
MAWAHIB is an unraced 2 year old
Filly and running just short of 6f
I would prefer the favourites chance
DIJBOUTI makes no obvious appeal

GOLD ARROW can't be ruled out
If he improves from his last race
He could easily play a role in staking
Could be a saver or place bet as well

I like the following option

£5 Win MAKE A WISH 10/11

£5 Place GOLD ARROW 10/11

Ffos Las 3.15

11/4 Poyle Charlotte, 3/1 Lamb Chop,
7/2 Amplification, 4/1 Khazix, 8/1 Ragstone View,
12/1 Arrogant

3yo Handicap over 7f

LAMB CHOP is a filly
She looks short of recent runs
Only 2 of them so far in 2018
Just 1 run in the last 81 days
Not a lot for a filly with 8 runs
Every other horse in this race
Has several more recent races

ARROGANT looks unsafe
On his last 4 runs since a break
He has finished last every time
KHAZIX has never raced over 7f
All his form is over 8f and more
His pedigree suggests more stamina
May get away with it but unconvinced
RAGSTONE VIEW hard to commit to
His last 2 runs were backward steps

AMPLIFICATION looks a positive
Operating at this and higher levels
Happy to ignore his runs over 8f
This does look his trip and ground
Twice pulled out on firmer ground
This 7f on good should be better
He also drops from a Group 1 track

POYLE CHARLOTTE is a positive
Hat trick bid was failed at Brighton
But the winner was a better horse
She was badly hampered last time
I would play the race this way

Selection

£8 Win Bet POYLE CHARLOTTE 5/2

£2 Win Bet AMPLIFICATION 4/1

Windsor 3.55

3/1 Silca Mistress, 4/1 Parnassian, 6/1 Anonymous John,
13/2 Winklemann, 10/1 Danecase, Operative, Sir Roderic,
12/1 A Sure Welcome, 14/1 Little Palaver, 20/1 Cappananty Con,
20/1 Pastfact.

6F Handicap

The winner of this race
Should come from the highweights
Probably the top 6 in the weights

PARNASSIAN is interesting
Topweight and the class horse
One of very few with recent runs
His career best performance
Came over this course and distance
When he won a handicap off 86

Today PARNASSIAN is rated just 76
He only faces a 0-75 class field
Beaten under a length here last time
When he was coming from last place
He looks the best option on his rating

Selection

PARNASSIAN 3/1

Win Bet
or
Each Way

Windsor 4.25

2/1 Golden Force, 5/1 True Hero, 7/1 In The Cove,
7/1 Alexa Rose, 10/1 Came From The Dark, 10/1 Watchmyeverymove,
10/1 Love So Deep, 12/1 Mr Spirit, 12/1 Ragstone Cowboy,
16/1 Meraki, 33/1 Aristomachos, 50/1 Master Matt,
50/1 Grey Hare, 100/1 Dark Impulse

2yo Novice over 6f

Windsor 6f races
June to November
Show unraced horses
Drawn 8 or higher
Have a 2-227 record
They rarely win here

I am opposing 3 on that angle
TRUE HERO unraced drawn 11
ALEXA ROSE unraced drawn 12
CAME FROM THE DARK unraced drawn 13

RAGSTONE COWBOY has raced once
IN THE COVE has raced once
Both need to improve their figures

WATCHMYEVERYMOVE is a player
But his numbers are regressing

GOLDEN FORCE has achieved most
I would see him as a saver bet at least

A dark one is interesting

ARISTOMACHOS from Paul Cole
Priced up at 33/1 in the forecast
Has been backed at big prices

As I type this
There has been £1110 matched on Betfair
From that £444 has gone on this horse
That is almost 40% of matched bets

Look at his debut
ARISTOMACHOS ran at Windsor over 6f
Drawn 16 when unraced was an impossible draw
I'm avoiding 3 in this race drawn 11-12-13 on debut
The market move suggests he is a player

Staking options

£3.50 GOLDEN FORCE 7/4- 2/1

Lets buy him out of the race
Make sure we can't lose if he wins

Remaining £6.50

I am leaving this open
ARISTOMACHOS may not be fancy prices
But I think something should go on him

£3.25 Each Way ARISTOMACHOS 16/1

Obviously we are guessing with this bet

Windsor 4.55

4/5 Dirty Rascal, 5/1 Venture, 10/1 Grandstand,
14/1 Astronaut, Bring Us Paradise, Dark Mystique,
14/1 Teresita Alvarez, Wild Abandon, 20/1 The Cruising Lord,
25/1 Temujin, 50/1 Lady Morpheus, Tone The Barone,
100/1 Rusper Dreams.

6f Novice

DIRTY RASECEL is just odds on
Comes here with a 2-2-2-2 record

That would put many off
As a principle I like similar types
But I am not betting this horse at odds on
Not an Acclamation our of a Clodovil mare
Just don't see enough class there
His numbers are not improving either

VENTURE could pop in
But he is unraced
And drawn 8 isn't helpful

GRANDSTAND has decent claims
He finished behind Dirty Rascal last time
But only a couple of lengths behind
Dirty Rascal had a fitness edge that day
GRANDSTAND cost almost twice as much
He could improve and reverse the form
His stable are firing winners in as well

Option 1

£5 DIRTY RASCAL 10/11
£5 GRANDSTAND 7/1

Option 2

GRANDSTAND 7/1

Each Way

Happy with either staking option
Forced to choose its option 2

Roscommon 5.10

4/1 All The Mollies, 5/1 Best Not Argue, Piper Bomb,
13/2 Botanical Lady, 9/1 Hatton Cross, 12/1 Lake George,
14/1 Mojambo, Night Law, The Bittern Cry, 16/1 Dignified Air,
16/1 Kodianne, 18/1 Lion Hearted, 28/1 Welcometomyworld,
33/1 Cats Approval, Social Bandit.

7f Handicap
Low Grade race

BEST NOT ARGUE is a 6yo mare
She has a 324 day absence to overcome
The Racing post select her
As she has upgraded stables
I can see the case for that
Given Joseph O'Brien has her now
But in 303 similar racesd
Horses of any sex aged 6 or more
Absent more than 72 days
Return a 0-75 record in these races
BEST NOT ARGUE is therefore rejected

I am against the following

LAKE GEORGE a 10yo absent 297 days
WELCOMETOMYWORLD off since 2016
LION HEARTED lacks runs this season
What he he has had are not good enough
SOCIAL BANDIT doesn't offer enough
CATS APPROVAL is outclassed

KODIANE only has 3 career starts
Hard to fancy on any of those runs
MOJAMBO is a 48 rated filly
Has low numbers since downgrading yards
Throw in a 50 day break far too unsafe
DIGNIFIED AIR is out absent 352 days
NIGHT LAW was beat 25 lengths last time
That was only 8 days ago as well
Her trainer has a miserable 1-148 record
THE BITTERN CRY is a 4yo filly
Hard to like with just 5 career runs
Numbers are too low for confidence

BOTANITCAL LADY looks unsafe
She is a 7yo mare for starters
Who has raced just twice in 11 months
Not keen on such a short 5 day absence
When so short of races this season
Thow in a jockey with a 0-19 record
BOTANITCAL LADY doesn't interest me

ALL THE MOLLIES is a 4yo filly
She has raced just once in 2018
She could be on the bounce today
Coming back within 14 days
Drawn 15 of 15 might not help either

Shortlist

PIPER BOMB is a 3 year old filly
She is fit and running well
Nothing wrong with her profile
On her Racing Post Ratings
She has the best last time out figures

HATTON CROSS has a chance
Topweight and the class horse
I don't think he properly stays 8f
This drop in trip should help him
Obvious drawback he is a 9yo
But this interested me

Runs in the last 28 days

HATTON CROSS has 3 runs

7 horses have 1 run
7 horses have 0 runs

HATTON CROSS has at least 2 more runs
In the last 4 weeks
Than any other horse in the race

Selection

£4.00 Each Way HATTON CROSS 9/1

£2.00 Win Bet PIPER BOMB 6/1

Sort:  

You have a minor typo in the following sentence:

Not an Acclamation our of a Clodovil mare.
It should be out of instead of our of.

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