Statistical Analysis Friday September 7th

in #gambling5 years ago

Down Royal 4.15

5/4 Rita Levi, 100/30 Rockview Spirit,
7/2 Sundance Star, 8/1 Espirit D'escalier,
12/1 Ascot Dreamer, 20/1 Annabelle Rock,
20/1 Ebony Belle, 33/1 Commodus,
33/1 Olwen's Dream, 66/1 Mrs Browne's Girl.

5f Maiden

RITA LEVI sets the standard so far
She has a 2 2 2 4 record after 4 runs
You can look at who has beaten her
Such as Ten Sovereigns and Fantasy
And understand why she hasn't won

Doesn't matter who beats her
Usain Bolt would beat me in race
We have to be judged by who we beat

If you look at her numbers
Racing Post Ratings of 82 82 79 69
They are actually regressive
She can obviously win this race
But not completely convinced by her
RITA LEVI is down from 6f to 5f
Her trainer is on record twice
As suggesting 6f suits her better
This is her 5th run the blinkers are on
She may not have this all her own way
ROCKVIEW SPIRIT has a fair chance
Would be my 3rd choice in the race
Owned by a Racing Club as well

SUNDANCE STAR is my choice
She has a 4-2-2 record after 3 runs
Hasn't got much to find at all
Best last time out Numbers too
That came here over this distance
When she made the running last time
She could easily do the same today
May take some catching over 5f here

Selection

SUNDANCE STAR 3/1-7/2

Each Way

Down Royal 4.50

5/4 Ajmera, 15/8 Freiheit, 9/2 Early Call,
13/2 Teddy Boy, 33/1 Magic Magilini,
50/1 Kivatie, 66/1 Miss Florence.

3yo Maiden over 5f

AJMERA ran well last time
That was an 18 runner Curragh maiden
She was only caught in the last few yards
This drop in trip should be fine
I do prefer her to Freiheit

FREIHEIT has lower numbers
All 5 runs were over 7 furlongs
She has never ran over 5f before
Has to drop down 2 furlongs as well
I think she has a lot to prove here
EARLY CALL has lots of experience
But he has a 0-17 career record
His previous 4 Racing Post Ratings
Are a modest 65 55 67 62
Surely should be scoring better
After 17 runs to expect to win a maiden
TEDDY BOY has 2 average runs
He is facing 111 days off as well
Could improve but needs to
AJMERA looks the best option
I would play the race this way

Selection

£8 Win Bet AJMERA 11/8

£2 Win Bet TEDDY BOY 4/1

Down Royal 6.20

100/30 Piper Bomb, 6/1 Ahundrednotout, Little Camacho,
13/2 Bouquet Garni, 7/1 Althib, 8/1 Guanabara Bay,
10/1 Shelbe, 14/1 Lavinuela, Rock In Society, Zippy,
16/1 Nancy D'alton, 20/1 Deauville Society, Patrice's Wish,
50/1 Toffee Tart.

7f Handicap
This is 0-65 class race

PIPER BOMB was 2nd just 4 days ago
You may remember he was our saver bet
I like two things about him
His 4 day absence is the shortest
He must be one of the fittest horses
And if you look at Racing Post Ratings
He has the best last time out numbers

Last Time Out Racing Post Ratings

70 Piper Bomb
66 Ahundrednotout
58 or lower all others

I think the class horses
May well have an advantage

Top 3 in the weights

AHUNDREDNOTOUT
GUANABARA BAY
PIPER BOMB

Going to favour the highweights
Many of this big field lack class
7 of them rated just 45 or lower
They had consistently poor numbers

GUANABARA BAY is risky but interesting
3 runs ago at the Galway Festival
I shortlisted him with a recent run
It was a much better class race than this
He missed the break that day
There was a problem taking the hood off
That killed any chance he has of winning

He then ran over 8f at Leopardstown
He didn't have the best of draws that day
Had a wide passage eased when beaten
That was also a better race than this one
Last time he ran at Bellewstown
GUANABARA BAY was drawn 13 that day
Horrible record of high draws at that track
Those drawn 11 + are 1-84 since 2015
GUANABARA BAY was a creditable 4th
He's had a mix of bad lucky and bad draws

PIPER BOMB has to be as saver
Probably the most likely winner
But when I saved on him last time
It was on a completely different track
A far sharper track than this one

My policy here
Cover the 3 classier horses
Make sure you can't lose if any win
This is how I would play the race

Selection

£6 Win Bet GUANABARA BAY 8/1

£2 Win Bet AHUNDREDNOTOUT 5/1

£2 Win Bet PIPER BOMB 4/1

Down Royal 6.50

13/8 Cacique Royale, 6/1 Mzuri, 8/1 Maid In Manhattan,
8/1 Match My Fire, 10/1 Carol's Return, Papal Motel,
8/1 Specific Gravity, Torthai An Ghra, 14/1 Dark Amber,
25/1 British Art.

12f Handicap

CACIQUE ROYALE

The Racing Post Nap him
I can see why
He surely must end up odds on

Racing Post Ratings
Last time out
Cacique Royale did a 73
None of rivals bettered 58

I think a few may pull out
Mzuri was hammered yesterday
Papal Motel well beaten 4 days ago
Maid In Manhattan lost 3 days ago
Don't like her lack of runs this year
The favourite should be winning this
Main issue is how short will he end up
No point betting him early
As Rule 4's could damage the price
But he should be odds on to win this

Selection

CACIQUE ROYALE 10/11

Win Bet

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