Statistical Analysis Friday 31st August

in #gambling5 years ago

Sandown 1.40

5/1 Swiss Pride, Time For Bed, 11/2 Across The Sea,
7/1 Elsaabiqaat, 8/1 Slowmo, 8/1 Tinto, 12/1 Li Kui,
12/1 Superseded, 16/1 Fancy Flyer, 16/1 Spirit Of May,
20/1 Shining, 25/1 33/1 Sussex Solo.

5f Nursery

You don't want a high draw
If you look at 5f handicaps
Run any time of year since 2011
No horse aged under 4 years old
Has won one drawn 9 or higher here

TINTO is unpalatable drawn 14
SUSSEX SOLO rejected drawn 13
SUPERSEEDED has never ran over 5f
Not safe enough given he is drawn 10
ELSAABIQAAT is drawn 11
She is likeable on one level
But a filly drawn 11 is not safe here
SWISS PRIDE wouldn't be my first choice
Not convinced he will like the uphil finish
May struggle to get home in this field
SHINING has raced 3 times
Not done enough given his weight
SPIRIT OF MAY may lack the quality
FANCY FLYER has form tied up with him
Doesn't have a prime draw either
TIME FOR BED didn't appeal much
Given his strong connections
Offputting he was 50/1 last time
His numbers are not strong enough
And lower than his handicap mark
I can shortlist 3 horses

LI KUI 8/1


£4 Win Bet LI KUI 7/1

£4 Win Bet SLOWMO 7/1

£2 Win Bet ACROSS THE SEA 7/2

Sandown 2.10

7/2 Grey Galleon, 5/1 Nibras Again, 6/1 On A Roll,
6/1 Secret Potion, 6/1 Shamshon, 12/1 Maygold,
12/1 Powerful Dream, 14/1 Wotadoll, 16/1 Firenze Rosa,
16/1 Gnaad, Peggie Sue, 25/1 Desert Fox.

5F Handicap

High Draws have problems
GNAAD and WOTADOLL are badly drawn
PEGGIE SUE drawn too high as well
DESERT FOX doesn't look appealing
FIRENZE ROSA's numbers are too low
Felt she may lack the class of bottomweight
POWERFUL DREAM is not well treated
Never won off a rating as high as 76 before

GREY GALLEON won well last time
Looks interesting and well treated
Not keen on his draw in stall 9
When ridden by a 7lbs claimer
No claiming jockey has won here
Drawn as high as that since stalls renumbered
She is quite an inexperienced jockey
She will do well to beat these drawn high

MAYGOLD has a chance
Not a profile that persuaded me
Mainly down to being a filly
With just 1 in the last 82 days
And with a weight of 9st 4lbs
SECRET POTION may lack the class

ON THE ROLL is shortlisted
Not keen on the sire much
Not when softer than good ground
And when in a field this big

SHAMSHON is interesting
I like the fact he faces a 0-75 class race
He has won better races off higher marks
He has also won over course/distance

SHAMSHON is Topweight
He is taking on lower rated horses

SHAMSHON is entered tomorrow as well
That is a much better race than this one
SHAMSHON gets weight from better horses
He has a good chance of winning tomorrow

It could be a mistake not to bet him in a 0-75
When I like his chance in a 0-97 tomorrow
That said he will need luck in running
Unlikely to be one of the pace setters
And may have to hope the gaps appear

NIBRAS AGAIN is very shortlistable
Must be part of the staking after last run


Option 1

£8 Win Bet SHAMSHON 7/2
£2 Win Bet NIBRAS AGAIN 6/1

Option 2

This is more inventive



With the remaining £4 Staked

Saturday Sandown 1.50

£4 SHAMSHON 8/1 (Tomorrow)

Bangor 2.55

10/11 Captain Peacock, 5/4 Sonic,
10/1 He's A Goer, 33/1 Desert De Bruyere.

Novice Hurdle over 2m 3f
Hard to rule any out with a small field

HE'S A GOER is a 4yo from a Bumper
His main rivals have more hurdling experience
I think that puts him at a disadvantage
But he is not a negative despite this

They all have positives and negatives
CAPTAIN PEACOCK just has the best numbers
Was pretty useful on the flat as well
One of the thing I don't like about him
He's raced just once now in 8 months
That badly damages his profile

SONIC looks the safer choice to me
He has had 9 lifetime starts
CAPTAIN PEACOCK has 26 of them
He is almost 3 times as exposed
That combination does not feel safe
A thoroughly exposed young horse
With just 1 run in several months
I would play it this way


£7.50 Win Bet SONIC 7/4
£2.50 Win Bet HE'S A GOER 3/1

Wolverhampton 5.35

3/1 Christmas Night, 4/1 Newstead Abbey,
4/1 Grey Destiny, 13/2 Stringybark Creek,
7/1 Smugglers Creek, 8/1 Herm, 14/1 Sarangoo,
14/1 Viola Park, 25/1 Fossa, 66/1 Portrush Storm

7f Handicap
259 similar races

CHRISTMAS NIGHT has a chance
This 7f looks the limit of his stamina
The evidence suggests he does stay
But he is an average 3 year old
I would rather look elsewhere

NEWSTEAD ABBEY is 8 absent 52 days
In similar races
Horses aged 7 + absent 45 + days are 0-54

Horses aged 6 +
Absent 38 or more days
Carrying 8st 8lbs or more
Return a 0-86 record in similar races
NEWSTEAD ABBEY fails this and is out
PORTRUSH STORM is 13 absent too long
FOSSA is running too badly
SARANGOO ran too badly 4 days ago
Gets no benefit of doubt as a 10yo

VIOLA PARK is very beatable
Wanted a more recent run
For a 4yo as exposed as he is
HERM is in a similat situation
He is less exposed but has 52 days off

STRINGYBARK CREEK is shortlistable
Has a chance but no wins off this mark
She is drawn 10 of 10 and is a small horse
Think there are safer options


GREY DESTING my prefence
Not the easiest type to win with
But he is due a win
His 3 career best wins
Came over this Course/Distance


£4 Each Way GREY DESTING 5/1


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