Statistical Analysis Friday 24th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Ffos Las 2.50

9/2 Sweet Pursuit, 11/2 Alaadel, 6/1 Eastern Racer,
13/2 Hyperfocus, 10/1 Miracle Of Medinah, The Daley Express,
11/1 Upstaging, 12/1 Bernardo O'Reilly, 14/1 Satchville Flyer,
14/1 Smokey Lane, Youkan, 16/1 Mobsta, 20/1 Odyssa,
20/1 One Minute, 25/1 Harry Beau, 33/1 Blaine.

6f Handicap

I'd be wary of the following

Horses drawn 14 or more
No horse has won a 6f race here drawn 12 +
Few have tried though but at all distances
The higher you go the worse returns are

Horses absent more than 6 weeks
Have a poor record in similar races
I would want 3 + runs that season
Horses from 8f or more also struggled

Miracle Of Medinah just missed out
He may prefer a smaller field than this
He's never won (0-14) above 10 runners

ALAADEL has been well backed
But he has raced once in 10 months
Coming back only 14 days afterwards
Can't be sure he will not bounce
Mobsta's raced just once in 118 days
I could shortlist only 3 horses

Shortlist

HYPERFOCUS
SWEET PURSUIT
EASTERN RACER

HYPERFOCUS gets his ground
He looks like he is back in form

EASTERN RACER also like it softer
He has just done a career best rating
Whilst he is coming up from 5f
A very recent run helps his profile

SWEET PURSUIT is a 4yo filly
She's won her previous 3 races
All 3 were career best runs as well
She is taking a fair step up in class
She is still well handicapped though
I think one of these 3 should win

Selection

£7 Win Bet HYPERFOCUS 7/1

£2 Win Bet SWEET PURSUIT 5/1

£1 Win Bet EASTERN RACER 10/1

Ffos Las 3.25

15/8 Q Twenty Boy, 5/2 Brandy Station,
7/2 Moonlit Sands, 8/1 Give Em A Clump,
10/1 Ticktocks, 12/1 Aquadabra,
50/1 Isabella Ruby.

3yo Handicap over 5f
53 similar races in August

Isabella Ruby looks unfit
Ticktocks not running good numbers
GIVE EM A CLUMP is similar
He has ran 3 poor races in a row

AQUADABRA has 60 days off
Thats a lot for a filly with 18 runs
No horse as exposed as her
Won a similar race with an absence
She may not have trained on anyway

Should be a 3 horse race

Q Twenty Boy
Moonlit Sands
Brandy Station

MOONLIT SANDS has every chance
Would have prefered a shorted absence
Q TWENTY BOY is a positive

Runs since August

3 Brandy Station
1 Q Twenty Boy
0 Moonlit Sands

BRANDY STATION the fittest horse
Stableform is a major concern
83 losers on the trot in 147 days
But they don't have good horses
BRANDY STATION is the class horse
He takes a significant drop in class
He has never ran in Class 6 before
This is a golden opportunity for him
The stableform must be a negative
The 7lbs claimer is also a negative
So too is the market drift as well
Thats why I am favouring a split stake

Selection

£5 Win Bet BRANDY STATION 6/1

£5 Win Bet Q TWENTY BOY 11/10

York 4.15

15/8 Beat Le Bon, 5/2 Sky Defender,
7/1 Indomitable, 8/1 Barys, 10/1 Commanding Officer,
14/1 Voltaic, 16/1 Caplin, 16/1 George Mallory,
20/1 Sevenhillsofrome, 25/1 Arogo,
25/1 Boston George, 66/1 My Girl.

Maiden race over 7f

Racing Post Ratings show
Two horses are well clear

BEAT LE BON 90
SKY DEFENDER 88

This pair have a healthy edge
Next best rating is way back on 77
They are at least 10lbs clear

COMMANDING OFFICER has 2 runs
He should be vulnerable in this race
INDOMITABLE has some promise
Not for me with 1 run drawn 12
If you look at 7f races here since 2013
Horses with under 4 runs
Drawn in stalls 11 or more are 0-58
Some did win before 2013
But it certainly isn't a positive

I like both market leaders
BEAT LE BON ran well at Newbury
Helped by a badly drawn favourite
But must have every chance in this

SKY DEFENDER may have more scope
When he ran 2nd on his Goodwood debut
He was said to have needed the run
Wasn't fully tuned up that day
Hoping he may show more improvement

Selection

SKY DEFENDER 5/2

Each Way

Goodwood 5.05

2/1 Belated Breath, 9/2 Cent Flying, Grey Galleon,
5/1 Haylah, 8/1 Essaka, 10/1 Frank Cool, 16/1 Brother In Arms,
25/1 Red Tycoon, 33/1 Deer Song, 50/1 Taurean Gold.

6f Apprentice Handicap

If you look at the numbers
Last time out Racing Post Ratings
They throw up a dominant horse

84 Belated Breath
67 Haylah
65 Cent Flying
62 Grey Galleon
61 Frank Cool
56 Brother In Arms
53 Essaka
39 Little Miss Kodi
35 Red Tycoon
30 Taurean Gold
27 Deer Song

BELATED BREATH is miles clear
On his easy 5 length victory 8 days ago
Almost becomes Automatic Selection

The problem he has is the draw
Since the stalls renumbered in 2011

Goodwood 6f Handicaps
Under 16 runners

Horses aged 2-3-4-5
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-96 record in all of them

We have had a couple aged 6 + win
With high draws in similar races
But younger horses are 0-97

BELATED BREATH has stall 10
That is the problem with his profile

GREY GALLEON is drawn 11
With average numbers he is rejected

ESSAKA is very average
His Career best Racing Post Rating
Was a figure of 67 achieved back in 2015
Not impressive after a 52 race career
FRANK COOL has never beaten a 64
BROTHER IN ARMS has 179 days off

CENT FLYING is a 3yo
HAYLAH is a 3yo

This pair may offer the biggest threat
Both would be legitimate saver options
HAYLAH especially with a 3 day absence

BELATED BREATH is a badly drawn filly
But Her last time out Racing Post Rating
Demands she is at least on the staking plan
She really should be selection with a saver

Selection

£8 Win Bet BELATED BREATH 15/8

£2 Win Bet HAYLAH 5/1

Goodwood 6.35

4/1 George Of Hearts, 6/1 Roussel, 7/1 Oeil De Tigre,
15/2 Baron Bolt, 8/1 Polybius, 10/1 Boy In The Bar,
12/1 Solar Flair, Vibrant Chords, 12/1 Hart Stopper,
14/1 Dark Shot, 16/1 Poet's Vanity, 20/1 Snazzy Jazzy,
20/1 Tricksy Spirit.

Class 2 Handicap over 6f
August has 49 of these races

TRICKSY SPRIT is badly drawn
SNAZZY JAZZY has the same problem
DARK SHOT will do well to win drawn 13
The Draw stats in the 5.05pm race
Horses aged 2-3-4-5
Drawn 9 or higher
Have a 0-96 record
DARK SHOT shares this problem
POETS VANITY isn't running well enough

Horses from 5f races
Aged 5 or more
Absent more than 2 weeks
Record a worrying 1-109 record
VIBRANT CORDS has this 1-109 profile
BARON BOLT also fails this as well
ROUSSEL has a lot of weight
For a 3yo who was well beaten last time

I wouldn't rule out any of the others
Horses aged 7 or more don't score well

Horses aged 7
Absent more than 7 days
Have a miserable 2-170 record
They can win but score badly
OEIL DE TIGRE a 7yo with this profile
BOY IN THE BAR a 7yo with this profile
POLYBIUS a 7yo with this profile

GEORGE OF HEARTS should go well
Strongly fancied last time at Ascot
We opposed him that day
As he was dropping from 8f to 6f
Today he does not have that problem

Racing Post Ratings last time out
GEORGE OF HEARTS tops this list
He has the best last time out numbers
Which was done 14 days ago at Ascot

What is interesting about that
He is only the 8th horse in the weights
You'd expect Topweights to score well
And to offer the best last time out figures
So I think thats a point in his favour
He should be going close in this race

Selection

GEORGE OF HEARTS 3/1

Each Way if 3/1
Win Bet if 11/4 or less

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You have a minor misspelling in the following sentence:

Would have prefered a shorted absence.
It should be preferred instead of prefered.

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