Statistical Analysis Friday 20th July

NEWBURY 2.00

3/1 Sheriffmuir, 11/2 Wojood, 6/1 Momkin,
10/1 Beat Le Bon, 11/1 Al Fajir Mukbile, Artistic Rifles,
12/1 Azets, 14/1 Brian Epstein, Clem A, Global Army,
14/1 Numero Uno, Salam Zayed, Thorn, 16/1 Dark Poet,
20/1 St Ouen, 25/1 Dancing Jo, Peters Pudding,
33/1 The Great Phoenix, 50/1 Goodwood Sonnet.

2yo Novice over 7f

Market has to guess the favourite
SHERIFFMUIR is an obvious candidate
As an expensive debutant from a top stable
SHERIFFMUIR may well go and win
But Stall 18 will certainly test him

Go back to 2003
Look at unraced horses at Newbury
Run over any and every distance
Any time of year in the last 15 years
None of them won from stall 18 or higher
Since 2007 none won from stall 17 +
SHERIFFMUIR may end up overcoming that
But I'd rather have a better drawn horse
THORN has the same problem
Can't be considered unraced drawn 20
BEAT THE BON is unraced from Hannon
I'd expect him to be shorter if fancied
His sire's never had an unraced 7f winner

AL FAJIR MUKBILE has 2 runs
Looks an optional saver bet

The safest choice here
With experience and a good draw
Has to be MOMKIN each way
He was 3rd on debut at Salisbury last time
Shaped well and should improve for that

Selection

MOMKIN 4/1

Each Way

NOTTINGHAM 5.00

3/1 Travel Lightly, 9/2 Eponina,
5/1 Rebel State, 11/2 Dame Vera,
8/1 Thundercloud,9/1 Shamaheart,
12/1 Zapateado, 14/1 Foxy Rebel,
25/1 Thornaby Nash.

8f Handicap

TRAVEL LIGHTLY is a 3yo filly
One who is stepping up in distance
Biggest statistical problem with her
She has just 2 runs in 2018
All similar 3yo fillies from 7f races
Running within 7 weeks
Had at least 3 runs that season
Those like her who did not were 0-50
To be fair not many won last time out
So unfair to rope her in with the 0-50
But she does look quite short of runs
Her win was when 33/1 off a low mark
THUNDERCLOUD is a 3yo filly
She has a worrying 40 day absence
Every other horse runs within 18 days
She is absent over twice as long
As every other horse in this race
DAME VERA is a 3yo filly with 4 runs
She is very lightly raced with a recent run
That combination doesn'y usually work
Similar races 3yo fillies with under 8 runs
Running within the last 12 days are 0-26
DAME VERA fails this and is not suitable

REBEL STATE is shortlisted
Not keen he is up in distance
Not impressed by his limited backclass
But he is very consistent
He is capable of winning off his rating
And he does look like he is about to win
He clearly needs a mile outside a big field

EPONINA is a 4yo filly who won last time
With Topweight she has plenty to prove
But she has recently upgraded stables
Her new stable sent her up in distance
She then won producing a lifetime best
Doing that from a bad draw up 2 furlongs
And she also won with something in hand

SHAMAHEART aged 8 is the oldest horse
But he has several good recent runs
He is a horse that loves fast ground
He is a horse who needs a recent run
He has a 0-41 record absent over 15 days
He has a 6-24 record running within 15 days
His record in July and August
Racing on Good to Firm ground
Running within 15 days
Returns an impressive 5-7 record
He was rated as high as 82 in 2017
This year he has dropped to 63
He could well be about to win now
There are a few imponderables
He swaps cheekpieces for a visor
He also has a 7lbs claimer riding too
And a draw of 10 of 10 may wil test him

Selection

SHAMAHEART 11/1

£3.50 Each Way

EPONINA 11/4

£3.00 Saver Bet

KILBEGGAN 6.25

6/4 Dreamtide, 5/1 Tree Of Knowledge, 6/1 Eastern Harbour,
6/1 Reaver, 8/1 Russellstown, 10/1 Royal Zorro, 12/1 Cash In Mind,
12/1 Melly And Me, 25/1 Cosmic Symbol, Grinditout, Perfect In Pink,
33/1 Blue Bounty, Global Tour, Pink Ribbon.

6/4 Dreamtide, 5/2 Reaver, 5/1 Tree Of Knowledge,
6/1 Eastern Harbour, 8/1 Russellstown, 10/1 Royal Zorro,
12/1 Cash In Mind, Melly And Me, 25/1 Cosmic Symbol,
25/1 Grinditout, Perfect In Pink, 33/1 Blue Bounty,
33/1 Global Tour, Pink Ribbon.

2m Maiden Hurdle

DREAMTIDE is a 4yo filly
She has an absence of 387 days

April to September
Maiden Hurdles
Since 2007
Any Distance
During these 6 months

Fillies Aged 4
Absent more than 106 days
Have a 0-122 record in these races
DREAMTIDE fails this 0-122 statistic

Not many safe alternatives
RUSSELLSTOWN is a 9yo
He looks unfit with 1 bad run in months
EASTERN HARBOUR is an unraced 4yo
So few win the percentage call is to oppose him
MELLY ME is a seasonal debutant
Started 100/1 in both hurdle runs to date

ROYAL ZORRO is a 7yo first time out
Statistically I can't rule him out
But hard to make first choice
From a small unproven trainer
Whose career runners in hurdles are 0-32

TREE OF KNOWLEDGE ran 5 days ago
He was beaten 13 lengths in that race
It was his first run since August 2017
This is a very fast return to the track
He may not be fit enough
He must be is in danger of bouncing
Win lose or draw not a safe enough profile

CASH IN MIND has the numbers to win
His run 12 days ago was pretty average
But he was given quite a strange ride

REAVER finished 2nd in that same race
Thats the best recent hurdle form here
REAVER would appeal each way at 5/2

Spanner in the works is the reserve
GLOBAL JACKPOT is the first reserve
Good run in a Bumper 13 days ago
If he runs he is a genuine threat

Selection

£8.50 Win Bet REAVER 5/2

£1.50 Win Bet CASH IN MIND 6/1