Statistical Analysis Friday 17th August

in #gambling6 years ago

Newbury 1.20

6/5 Fox Power, 3/1 Cloak And Dagger, 8/1 Cap Francais,
8/1 Global Quality, 14/1 Athmad, 20/1 Abenaki, Korcho,
25/1 Maykir, Moon King, 33/1 Elmejor, The Great Phoenix,
40/1 Para Queen.

2yo Maiden over 7f

FOX POWER is odds on 4/5
Nothing else appears too fancied

FOX POWER is drawn 12
Had he been drawn higher in 13
I could have shown thats a problem
Nearly a bad draw for a once raced horse

He will probably still be good enough
But at the prices I'd rather go each way
CLOAK AND DAGGER is better drawn
He has an extra run behind him
He is right there on the numbers

The percentage bet

Cloak and Dagger 5/2 - 11/4

Each Way

Nottingham 2.35

9/4 Madam Devious, Spin Top, 5/1 Young Tiger,
8/1 Optimickstickhill, 10/1 Kodimoor, 14/1 Amazing Amaya,
16/1 Lady Joanna Vassa, 20/1 Poppy Jag, 33/1 Iconic Figure.

5f Handicap

MADAME DEVIOUS is a 3yo filly
She has only had 3 career starts

Statistically in all similar races
There was a horse wining like her
That was Noble Act back in 2016
Won a fast ground maiden at Leicester
With far better numbers than she has
Most that tried though have failed
The ground is on the soft side
I don't think this is a safe profile

If we can get her beaten
When 3rd in the weights rated 60

SPIN TOP rated 60
YOUNG TIGER rated 60
Then only have a 0-53 to beat

Some of the lower weights
Lack a bit of class as you'd expect

10 renewals of this race
All 10 winners ran within 22 days
Horses that did not do that were 0-26

AMAZING AMAYA a 3yo filly absent 184 days
LADY JOANNA VASSA a mare absent 85 days

POPPY JAG has never run a good figure
He is another absent longer than past winners

ICONIC FIGURE has to drop 2f
He is running very low numbers

SPIN TOP has a run 3 days ago
He is the fittest horse
He is the class horse as topweight
He is prove in conditions
His stable are in form

Can't pretend he is much good
None of these are
But he has just placed 3 days ago
In a better race than this is
Over the same trip course and ground
His fitness should get him very close


SPIN TOP 3/1-100/30

Each Way

Newbury 3.30

4/1 Lethal Promise, 6/1 Thriving,
7/1 Shumookhi, 8/1 Come On Leicester, 8/1 Heartwarming,
8/1 Swiss Air, 10/1 Implicit, 20/1 Pink Iceburg, So Brave,
25/1 Blame Roberta, 25/1 Chynna, 25/1 On The Stage,
33/1 Aquarius, Gypsy Spirit.

2yo Listed race over 5f

The last 20 winners of this race
All won drawn between stalls 1-11

Go back to 2011
Newbury 5f races
Under 22 runners
Horses drawn 11 + are 0-39
You don't want a high draw here

SWISS AIR is drawn too high in 15
THRIVING has a bad draw in stall 14

SO BRAVE needs a lot of improvement

IMPLICIT ran 7 days ago
That may or may not be a positive
The problem is she has 7 career starts
All 20 previous winners had fewer
Horses with 7 or more runs are 0-16
She is the most exposed horse in the race

The most recent winners
Had 3 2 6 4 1 4 4 3 4 6 3 3 runs
10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs
HEARTWARMING only has 2 runs
Since the 2005 renewal
Horses with under 3 runs are 1-26

But it is only 2 years ago
That a twice raced horse won
So I am not sold on that angle
I like Heartwarmings middle draw too

COME ON LEICESTER flopped last time
His 22 length defeat is not a good sign
No past winners were beaten so badly

LETHAL PROMISE has strong claims
But he has 47 days off the track
Thats the longest absence in the race
And the last 20 winners ran within 42 days
We are only talking 5 days here though

Most of these have little flaws/issues
None of them fail serious angles
Just annoying little dilemmas

SHUMOOKHI is the horse I can pass
But her last two races were abroad
Making her particularly difficult to read
I'd rather have a horse down in distance
4 of the last 5 winners dropped from 6f

SHUMOOKHI is a saver bet
HEARTWARMING is a saver bet
LETHAL PROMISE the main bet

If you look at the 4 other shortest horses
We have Scintilatting and Heartbreaking
Who have fewer runs that most winners
We have the badly drawn Thriving
Come on Leicester hammered last time
Looking at the shape of the betting
I could squeeze Heartbreaking in too
It was only 2 years ago a twice raced won
And I do like that middle draw he has

I would play the race this way

Small Stakes

£7.00 Win Bet LETHAL PROMISE 111/4

£1.50 Win Bet SHUMOOKHI 13/2

£1.50 Win Bet HEARTWARMING 6/1

Wolverhampton 4.20

6/4 Al Mureib, 3/1 Bo Samraan,
4/1 Takumi, 11/2 Artois, 10/1 Dashing Willoughby,
25/1 Bug Boy.

2yo Maiden over 8f

AL MUREIB sets the standard
Odds on and should be hard to beat
One thing puts me off him
He is a small horse
Nice debut but on his 2nd run
He did not progress from that
Not so worried he steps up from 6f to 8f
Just not convinced improvement is certain
ARTOIS is unraced and weak in the market
TAKUMI is unraced and weak in the market

Given the options
BO SAMRAAN could be the bet
The percentage bet each way



Each Way

1/4 the odds 1,2

Newbury 5.10

3/1 Hellovaqueen, 7/2 Warmhearted,
6/1 Misu Pete, 7/1 Abel Tasman, 8/1 Bayston Hill,
10/1 Bristol Missile, 16/1 Windsorlot,
16/1 Kyllachys Tale, 25/1 Presence Process

9f Apprentice Handicap

HELLOVAQUEEN is a 3yo filly
She only has 3 career starts
She only has 1 this season
Not an easy task going up in trip

MISU PETE has some questions too
Her sire has had a couple win over this far
But if you look at her sire Misu Bond
His runners on Grass over 8f or more
In races of over 7 runners
He has so far produced a 0-54 record
Can't be sure he will relish this 9f
KYLLACHYS TALE is a filly absent a month
The bottomweights look too far behind
PRESENCE PROCESS rated only 59
WINDSORLOT looking short of class
BAYSTON HILL needs a career best

This leaves 4 horses

Abel Tasman
Bristol Missile

WARMHEARTED is interesting
We backed her two runs ago
She won a soft race at Hamilton
Last time she finished second
But that was a career best number

ABEL TASMAN is a threat
Both could player saver roles

The other option I preferred


Each Way 11/4

Tramore 5.30

13/8 Wee Tiger, 8/1 Black Jewel, Model Cloud,
8/1 Naughty Molly, Roevin Star, 10/1 Island Master,
10/1 Old Supporter, 14/1 Ballyfinboy, Betterthanalright,
16/1 Castlewhite, 25/1 Knockraha Prince,
33/1 Precious Gold, Tomcoole Lad, Touchy,
50/1 Kilderry Prince, Nevada Rose.

2m 6f Handicap Chase

WEE TIGER has 5 chase runs
They were a long time ago
They were all pretty rubbish

He has since been hurdling
He is bang in form winning his last 2
He comes here with momentum
And no denying he is well treated

That said
As his name suggests
He is not a big horse
This is a long way over fences
For an undersized horse
Who so far has done nothing over fences

When I see certain horses
Whose names like "Little" or "Wee"
Could suggest they are quite small
I always watch some videos of them
And usually that's exactly what they are
WEE TIGER is another example of this
I can't trust him despite his paper claims

The alternative is a mess
Couldn't begin to know enough
It requires a guess

NAUGHTY MOLLY has recent runs
She has a lot of history in this race
She was beaten a photo in last years race
She has been 2nd 2nd 4th in this race
Playing it this way

£4 Each Way NAUGHTY MOLLY 8/1

£1 Win Bet OLD SUPPORTER 9/1

£1 Win Bet ROEVIN STAR 9/1

Chelmsford 5.50

6/4 Lovin, 7/2 Isaan Queen, 5/1 Bobby Ewing,
6/1 Autumn Splendour, 8/1 Sparklealot,
16/1 Cobweb Catcher, 25/1 Free Love,
25/1 No Diggity, 100/1 Cool Walk.

5f Novice for 2 year olds

LOVIN is the best backed horse
All the money is for her

What bothers me about her
She drops down from 6f to 5f
She is sired by a Kentucky Derby winner
Who started his 2yo career over a mile
Her mother never won over 5f
I am uncomfortable about the trip

I'd consider going each way
ISAAN QUEEN looks a serious option
But no encouragement from the market
SPARKLEALLOT is another option

I wouldn't bet the well backed favourite
Despite the market suggesting I'm wrong
The percentage bet may be this


Each Way

Tramore 6.00

7/4 Global Jackpot, 9/4 Jonnigraig, 9/2 Smithscorner,
17/2 Its All A Lark, 12/1 Light Of My Life, 14/1 Knock On Steel,
14/1 Tiantu, 50/1 Cusp Of Carabelli, 66/1 Goodbye Oonagh,
100/1 Elusive High, Minstrel Song, 100/1 Myanne,
100/1 Noreaway, That'sthatdev.

2m Maiden hurdle

GLOBAL JACKPOT has the best form
Something interesting about his profile

He drops from 2m 4f to 2m
With only a 6 day absence

July August September October
2m maiden hurdles
Horses from 2m 4f + hurdles
Running within 8 days
Returns a 0-64 record
GLOBAL JACKPOT fails this 0-64 angle

If I look all year round
Any time of year
Male horses aged 5
Dowm from 2m 4f races
Under 8 days absence
Return a 0-50 record

GLOBAL JACKPOT may still win
But this profile raises a doubt

That's why I would go each way

JONNIGRAIG has bumper form
Must have a chance from Willie Mullins

SMITHSCORNER could be the one
His sire doesn't pass on must class
His runners in Novice + Maiden hurdles
Have a low scoring 1-59 record so far
This obviously requires a guess
But given the issues this is mine



Each Way

Chelmsford 6.20

7/4 Anycity, 2/1 One To Go,
5/2 Capla Flyer, 12/1 Set With The Stars,
20/1 Wontgetfooledagen.

2yo Maiden over 8f

Aside from the 50/1 outsider
This pitches 4 unraced horses
Against a very experienced one

ONE TO GO has raced 4 times
Doesn't set a particularly high standard
But has fitness and experienced
His unraced rivals don't feel safe

CAPLA FLYER is sired by Showcasing
The only 2yo winners his sire has over 8f +
Required at least 3 previous races

Unraced 2 year olds sire by Showcasing
Running over 7f and more are 0-26
CAPLA FLYER is unraced over 8f
Suggests he has a lot to prove

SET WITH THE STARS looks beatable
Unraced from a small stable
Who don't score well with debutants

ANYCITY 7/4 is the market danger
Only 1 unraced 2 year old
Has won over 8f sired by Zoffany
So far the record is 1-18
That horse (Foundation) won a Group 2
No guaranteed he will get a mile first time

He is an unraced Gelding as well
They do not score well in these races

July to September
Maidens for 2yo's over 8f +
Unraced Geldings were 2-182
Hardly an encouraging angle

I'd rather side with experience
ONE TO GO with 4 career starts
May well beat 3 unraced dangers
None of whom appeal on breeding


ONE TO GO 5/4-11/8

Win Bet

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