Statistical Analysis Friday March 16th

CHELTENHAM 1.30

2/1 Apple's Shakira, 4/1 Redicean,
5/1 Stormy Ireland, 7/1 Farclas, Mr Adjudicator,
10/1 Saldier, 16/1 Sussex Ranger,
33/1 Gumball, 33/1 Sayo.

Triumph Hurdle
Only 9 runners

SAYO has raced once since September
Shouldn't have the conditioning to win
SALDIER has similar problems
He has raced only once since May 2007
Recent winners had the following Hurdle runs
4 2 3 2 3 6 1 2 2 2 6 3
SALDIER only has 1 hurdle run

STORMY ISLAND is a filly
I do not like that 90 day absence
The last 24 winners of this race
Had their last race after January 17th
They all raced within the last 56 days
Those that did not had a 0-57 record
STORMY ISLAND fails this 0-57 angle
GUMBALL also fails this absent 63 days

SUSSEX RANGER recently beaten on the flat
Would not be my first choice
Not coming from the All Weather

REDICEAN is W W W over hurdles
No doubt his numbers are good enough
The obvious question is will the race suit
All his hurdle runs were on a flat track
Will he apprreciate Cheltenham on soft

APPLE'S SHAKIRA is a filly
Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993,1994 and 2000
All 3 fillies won last time out within a month
APPLE'S SHAKIRA has 48 days off the track
Longer than the other 3 winning fillies
She is a filly with 1 run in the last 90 days
But I do need more to put me off her

MR ADJUDICATOR is shortlistable
Certainly his numbers are good enough
I wouldn't see Camacho as a safe sire
He managed to beat FRACLAS last time
FRACLAS should have more improvement

I was going with Fracas to win
With APPLE'S SHAKIRA as a saver
But as I can't rule out Redicean
Decided to bet Fracas each way

Selection

FRACLAS 6/1

Each Way

CHELTENHAM 2.50

4/1 Santini, 9/2 Chef Des Obeaux, 6/1 Chris's Dream,
10/1 Ok Corral, 10/1 Poetic Rhythm, 14/1 Ballyward,
16/1 Calett Mad, 16/1 Enniscoffey Oscar, 16/1 Real Steel,
16/1 Paisley Park, 16/1 Mr Whipped, 20/1 Fabulous Saga,
20/1 Tower Bridge, 20/1 Dortmund Park, 25/1 Mulcahys Hill,
25/1 Talkischeap, 25/1 Kilbricken Storm, 25/1 Robin Waters,
33/1 Beyond The Law, 50/1 Crucial Role

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3m

You want experience in this race
Ideally a horse aged 6 or more
With plenty of previous runs

Number of Hurdle runs

8 Calett Mad
7 Fabulous Saga
7 Poetic Rhythm
7 Beyond The Law
5 Enniscoffey Oscar
4 Chef Des Obeaux - Real Steel
4 Mr Whipped - 4 Dortmund Park- Talkischeap
3 Chris's Dream - Ok Corral
3 Robin Waters - 3 Paisley Park - Tower Bridge
2 Ballyward - Santini

Combined Hurdle & Bumper runs
7 17 8 5 8 4 5 15 6 8 8 5 4
I would demand at least 4 runs
Horses with 4-8 Hurdle + Bumper runs
Won 11 of the 13 past renewals

Number of Hurdle runs
7 15 6 4 6 3 3 13 4 3 4 3 4
No horses has won this race
With fewer than 3 hurdle runs

SANTINI does not have that
BALLYWARD does not have that

Number of runs this Season
4 3 4 4 4 4 3 9 4 3 4 3 5
I would demand at least 3 runs
All 13 past winners had that
SANTINI does not have that
BALLYWARD does not have that

SANTINI only has 3 career starts
He'd be the least experienced winner
With just 2 hurdle runs I am against him
BALLYWARD has 2 runs this season
All past winners had more than him

Not keen on 5 year olds either
Thay may have a 2-44 race record
But one of those was very lucky
The leaders went off far too fast
The other was very fit and experienced

DORTMIND PARK is rejected aged 5
MR WHIPPED is the wrong age as well

REEL STEEL is also a 5 year old
Too risky with just 1 run in 78 days
No 5yo won with under 4 hurdle runs
ROBIN WATERS is rejected failing this
TOWER BRIDGE has the same problem
He is a 5yo with just 3 hurdle runs
PAISLEY PARK has 4 lifetime starts
I would want more than that

Last time out finishing positions
Were 1 2 1 4 2 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 1
No horse has won this race
Beaten over 13 lengths last time (0-28)

MULCAHYS HILL ran too badly last time
KILBRICKEN STORM fails this angle
BEYOND THE LAW fails it as well

Cheltenham Grade 1 Novice Hurdles
Every and any distance since 1997
Horses from Handicap Hurdles are 1-93
Those aged 4-5-6-7 are 0-86
CRUCIAL ROLE is wrong from a handicap
TALKISCHEAP has the same problem

OK CORRAL is an 8yo
Only 1 past winner was aged 8
He was considerably more experienced
Not keen as an 8yo with so few runs

CHRIS'S DREAM ran 24 days ago
Not sure thats an ideal preparation
Horses that ran within 26 days
Have a 0-35 record in this race
He did win a bad race very easily
I say bad as 2 fancied horses flopped
I respect his chance but not sold on him

ENNISCOFFEY OSCAR is a 6yo
He has a decent enough profile
Deserves to be shortlisted on that
Wouldn't be my choice of stable

POETIC RHYTHM has 7 hurdle runs
That makes him the most experienced
From all the fancied runners
He comes from a Grade 1
That is not the norm all 15 losing
But he has positives elsewhere
One of my worries is his trainer
I'd just prefer a 1st division stable
Combine that with a 97 day absence
The last to win with that was in 2006

CHEF DES OBEAUX has 4 hurdle runs
With 7 career starts thats a positive
He also comes from a Grade 2 race
Horses from Grade 2 hurdle dominate
12 of the last 13 winners did just that
He has to be a positive
Much depends on his previous run
Will a Heavy ground Haydock win
Just 27 days ago take much out of him

CALLET MAD is very interesting
He comes from a Handicap Hurdle
That is a concern in a Group 1
But the 2016 winner of this race
Did exactly the same thing as he does
He has some serious other positives
He is battle hardened ideal for this race
He is a horse with a chasing career
Last year he was ever 9th in the 4 miler
He has some smart hurdle performances
When having no chance as a 5 year old
He comes here after a win a good win
Following a change of riding tactics
On Racing Post Hurdle ratings last time
It was easily a career best performance
He has plenty of ablity and experience
When most of these have cried enough
CALLET MAD has seen it all before

FABULOUS SAGA is also interesting
Statistically he didn't do enough last time
But there is a genuine excuse for the run
He went off far too fast at Leopardstown
Don't forget he started favourite for that
He has some decent numbers over further
He has plenty of hurdling experience
And it has to be pure common sense
To have an Irish 6yo on the staking

Selection

£2.00 Each Way FABULOUS SAGA 25/1-33/1

£2.00 Each Way CALLET MAD 16/1

£2.00 Win Bet CHEF DES OBEAUX 5/1

Complicated staking
But we get our stakes back
If Chef Des Obeaux wins
If Fabulous Saga places
If Callet Mad places

CHELTENHAM 3.30

7/2 Might Bite, 4/1 Native River, 13/2 Our Duke,
9/1 Killultagh Vic, 10/1 Definitly Red, 10/1 Road To Respect,
14/1 Edwulf, 14/1 Total Recall, 20/1 Djakadam,
25/1 American, Anibale Fly, 33/1 Bachasson,
33/1 Outlander, 40/1 Double Shuffle, 50/1 Tea For Two,
66/1 Saphir Du Rheu

Gold Cup
Blue Riband Event

EDWULF is my Gold Cup horse
He has come here late under the radar
Most presumed he'd never run again
After what happened to him last year
Blew me away at Navan in Feb 2017
My Cheltenham Banker in the 4 miler
Had would have been 1st or 2nd there
EDWULF then collapsed in spasms
Looking like he might even die
Lost his eyesight which has returned

How do we know he is not the best horse
Or the horse best suited to the Gold Cup
He looked a machine to me last season
What happened to him in 2017 is a concern
But he appears to have overcome that now

That should be seen as a sign of courage
Wrong to assume he is soft and damaged
He has just won a Grade 1 Chase in Ireland
Beating several horses he faces today
And he has done that in impressive style
When he had not had a proper race all year
I do not believe that race was any fluke
EDWULF is a guaranteed stayer unlike many
He does not have to improve that much

On Official ratings
MIGHT BITE is top rated on 169
EDULF is only 4lbs lower on 165
That is not much to find at all
When on his Racing Post Ratings
EDWULF comes here on a career best

Number of Chase runs

19 Djakadam
17 Outlander
15 Saphir Du Rheu
14 Double Shuffle
13 Definitly Red
13 Tea For Two
12 Native River
11 Mala Beach
10 Road To Respect
10 Edwulf
10 Anibale Fly
9 Might Bite
8 Total Recall
7 Our Duke
5 Bachasson
5 American
3 Killultagh Vic

Under 15 Chase runs is ideal
The more over 15 you have
The less your chance of winning
The Previous 22 Gold Cup winners
Had the following career chase runs

9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

20 of the 22 last Gold Cup winners
Had under 15 previous chase runs
Kauto Star was one of the exceptions
Don Cossack managed it in a weak year
Generally speaking you want <15 chases

DJAKADAM is too exposed
He has already had his chance
His sire has not bred a soft ground winner
In Class 2 or higher beyond 3m 1f

OUTLANDER is too exposed now
Horses aged 10 + are 1-104 since 1992
Doesn't stay this trip well enough
SAPHIR DU RHEU is overexposed
Especially with just 1 run this season

MALA BEACH is outclassed
Horses aged 10 + are just 1-104 since 1992
TEA FOR TWO is outclassed

BACHASSON is a 7 year old
Past 7yo Gold Cup winners
Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year
I would be worried about a 7 year old
If having just 2 runs this season
I don't fancy him given the conditions

There are several unproven stayers
TOTAL RECALL has breeding issues
Horses sired by Westerner
3m 2f or more
Good to soft or worse
Class 2 or higher
Return a 0-23 record
He also comes from a hurdle race
None have done that in decades
And he has no Grade 1 winning form

ANIBALE FLY 33/1 fell last time
Hardly the best preparation
Neither trainer or sire look welcoming
Stamina has to be proven as well
The last 16 winners of this race
Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't

NATIVE RIVER has to be respected
He was 3rd in last years race
But he had 4 prep runs beforehand
This year he only has 1 warm up race
That is not a good sign statistically
Soft ground could compound that
He has raced just once in 364 days
So I do not feel that drawn to him

KILLUTAGH VIC is inexperienced
He only has 3 previous Chase runs
The last 22 winners had the following
9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11
12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11

21 of the 22 winners had at least 5 runs
Coneygree (2015) was the only exception
He had a safer profile that Killultagh Vic
Coneygree had more runs that season
And He did not come here after a fall
KILLUTAGH VIC has 2 runs in 14 months
He fell in one of those races as well
Not for me in with 3 chases on bad ground
Not in a big field with so few runs this year

AMERICAN has 5 Chase starts
That would be the bare minimum
He has only raced twice this season
Only 1 and a half times really
As he pulled up in one of those runs
It may be asking too much from him

DOUBLE SHUFFLE is value at 66/1 +
Second in a King George is significant
What if he wasn't flattered that day ?
Profile and sire stats are positive
He has placed at a Cheltenham Festival
Needed his first 2 runs this season
There are worse bets at 50/1 +
But it may just be asking too much

OUR DUKE is clearly very talented
After beaten in Ireland by Edwulf
He did win last time at Gowran Park
Not sure that is a great preparation
OUR DUKE has a 27 day absence
Cheltenham Gold Cup since 1997
Horses running in the last 32 days
Have a 0-62 record in the last 21 years
OUR DUKE fails this 0-62 record
He also comes from a 2m 4f race
The only horses that managed that
Were 9 year olds and he is younger
He also lacks any Cheltenham form
He would make it on a long shortlist
High class prospect but lots to prove

ROAD TO RESPECT has every chance
But he has to prove his stamina
I like 10 chase runs and much about him
His last 2 runs were career bests
Is he bred to win a Gold Cup though
Sire was a 12f Flat horse after all
Take the sires runners in Class 4 +
None have yet won beyond 3m 1f
I see positives and negatives
But he does not make the staking

Shortlist

DEFINITELY RED is shortlistable
Unfashionable but seems solid
Consider his Cotswold Chase win
Racing Post Rating was 172 that day
Sizing John won the 2017 Gold Cup
His Racing Post Rating was only 171
If he stays no shock if he won this
But I do have some reservations
His last Racing Post Rating of 171
Might well have flattered him
My other problem is his class
He has not yet won a Grade 1 though
Been a long time since a winner didn't
He has only just come out of handicaps
As Ireland are dominating this game
Can we really expect a Northern winner ?

MIGHT BITE has to prove his stamina
But put that aside for one moment
He is the highest rated horse in the race
He is W W W W W in his last 5 races
That includes a RSA Chase
It also includes a King George Chase
Without a doubt he is the class horse
But he's not shown that over this far
And heavy ground won't make it easier
MIGHT BITE is sired by Scorpion
Scorpions runners in Class 4 or higher
Have yet to win any race past 3m 1f
But very few have actually tried yet

Selection

We have an Ante Post Bet

£3 Win £2 Place EDWULF 20/1

The remaining £5 Stake
£3 EDWULF 16/1
£2 MIGHT BITE 4/1

This leaves this final staking

EDWULF 16/1

£6 Win
£2 Place

MIGHT BITE 4/1

£2 Saver Bet

CHELTENHAM 4.10

11/4 Burning Ambition, 11/2 Wonderful Charm,
7/1 Foxrock, 12/1 Caid Du Berlais, Virak, 14/1 Balnaslow,
14/1 Grand Vision, 14/1 On The Fringe, 14/1 Pacha Du Polder,
14/1 Sir Jack Yeats, Volnay De Thaix, 20/1 Barel Of Laughs,
20/1 Top Wood, 20/1 Unioniste, 25/1 Cousin Pete,
25/1 Minella For Value, Shotavodka, Wells De Lune,
33/1 Premier Portrait, Warden Hill, 50/1 Saddlers Encore,
50/1 Shantou Magic, Young Hurricane, 66/1 Vincitore.

Foxhunters

No great insight into this race
I can only make several assumptions

I would be opposing horses aged 12 +
Very rare you see winners aged 11 now
ON THE FRINGE aged 13 is now too old
SHOTAVODKA - GRAND VISION are 12
MINELLA FOR VALUE also out aged 12
BARELL OF LAUGHS is also too old
PACHA DU POLDER won this last year
Quite happy to pass him up this year
TOP WOOD is out aged 11 with a break

BALNASLOW was 5th in last years race
But he has raced once since June 2017
He is 11 now and pulled up in that race
Just not enough evidence of form/fitness
PREMIER PORTRAIT lacks positives

In trems of Racing Post Ratings
It will take around a 140 rating to take this
WARDEN HILL has only managed a 119
COUSIN PETE has only done a 125

CAID DU BERLAIS didn't offer enough
Has come back from a tendon injury
VOLNARY DE THAIX lacks star quality
WELLS DE LUNE is far too risky
Never been beyond 2m 5f before

VIRAK is respected and could go well
Not sure went want a Handicapper
He has just had too many past wins
In tiny fields and none in large fields
Doesn't look the biggest of horses

FOXROCK has an obvious chance
But his 2 Cheltenham runs were poor
What bothers me is Ted Walsh got rid
Why would he do that if he could win here
There was a 279 day absence after that
FOXROCK has just 1 run in 333 days
On a track that might not be suitable
I am not convinced enough about him

WONDERFUL CHARM is respected
He was beaten a neck last year
You'd have to respect a big run
The stable are long since out of magic
His best numbers are on faster ground

BURNING AMBITION is the big Irish hope
Smart jockey and must go close
Sired by Scorpion will he get home
He is only a lightly raced 7 year old

I can not commit to the main horses
Instead I am playing 2 horses each way

SIR JACK YEATS needs a career best
But that is not out of the question
He comes here after a career best
And you'd imagine he would stay this far

UNIONSITE has some decent numbers
Didn't strike me as a Foxhunters winner
But I do respect his last two numbers
145 145 Racing Post Ratings last 2 runs
Look at the last 4 winners of this race
The winners had 145 135 148 141 ratings
He would have won 3 of the last 4 ratings
UNIONSITE also has a recent run as well
The most recent race with a 145 rating
That gets him on the staking

Selection

£3 Each Way UNIONSITE 16/1

£2 Each Way SIR JACK YEATS 20/1

CHELTENHAM 4.50

6/1 Flawless Escape, 15/2 Diese Des Bieffes,
8/1 Sire Du Berlais, 10/1 Delire D'estruval, 10/1 Deal D'estruval,
12/1 Blow By Blow, 12/1 Early Doors, 14/1 Carter Mckay,
14/1 Mr Big Shot, 16/1 Tommy Rapper, 16/1 Brave Eagle,
16/1 Melrose Boy, 16/1 Lough Derg Spirit, 16/1 Coeur de Lion,
16/1 Discorama, 20/1 Amour de Nuit, 20/1 Dream Berry,
20/1 Brillare Momento, 25/1 Burrows Saint, 33/1 Flaxen Flare,
33/1 Brelan D'as, 33/1 Poppy Kay, 33/1 No Hassle Hoff,
33/1 Arthington

Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle
Conditional Jockeys over 2m 4f
Last year my angles shortlisted 4

The 40/1 winner
The 9/1 third
The 6th at 33/1
The 8th at 9/2

Not expecting lightening to strike twice
And I have no interest in this race
But my angles deserve another crack
To try and get the race right again

9 previous renewals
All winners were aged 5 or 6
Horses aged 7 or more
Have a miserable 0-82 record

All 8 winners were Male
All 8 winners ran within 52 days
Those absent longer than that were 0-65
All winners had Racing Post Ratings of 137 +
Horses from Class 2 Handicap Hurdles
Have a 0-51 record in this race
All winners started under 10/1 last time
No winners came from Novice/Maiden Hurdles

The hopeful not confident shotlist

MELROSE BOY 16/1
DEAL D'ESTRUVAL 10/1
COEUR DE LION 16/1
DIESE DE BIEFFES 15/2
FLAWLESS ESCAPE 9/2
SIRE DU BERLAIS 8/1

Thats too many
If I had to add another angle
Horses from 2m races are 1-55
8 of the 9 winners came from 2m 3f +
The readjusted shortlist is below

MELROSE BOY 16/1

DIESE DE BIEFFES 15/2

FLAWLESS ESCAPE 9/2

SIRE DU BERLAIS 8/1

No preference
No Selection

CHELTENHAM 5.30

9/1 Don't Touch It, North Hill Harvey, 10/1 Theinval,
10/1 Vaniteux, 14/1 Dolos, 16/1 Bouvreuil, 16/1 Le Prezien,
16/1 Rock The World, 20/1 Valdez, 20/1 Born Survivor,
20/1 Forest Bihan, 20/1 Foxtail Hill, 20/1 Garde La Victoire,
20/1 Gino Trail, 20/1Some Plan, 20/1Three Stars, 20/1Top Gamble,
25/1 Townshend, 25/1 Doitforthevillage, 25/1 Dresden,
33/1 Eastlake, 33/1 Sizing Platinum, 33/1 The Game Changer,
33/1 Bright New Dawn.

Grand Annual
Graded Handicap Chase over 2m

Number of Chase runs

36 Eastlake
34 Bright New Dawn
26 Dresden
24 The Game Changer
20 Top Gamble
18 Theinval
17 Rock The World
16 Sizing Platinum
15 Foxtail Hill
15 Gino Trail
15 Vaniteux
14 Doitforthevillage
13 Three Stars
11 Bouvreuil
10 Forest Bihan
10 Don't Touch It
10 Some Plan
9 Le Prezien
9 Townshend
9 Garde La Victoire
7 Valdez
4 North Hill Harvey
3 Dolos
3 Born Survivor

Generic Statistic 1
Shows Horses aged 11 or more
Absent over 31 days
Have a 1-161 record in appropriate races

EASTLAKE is out aged 12 absent 139 days
VALDEZ also fails this statistic
He has raced only once since 2014
GINO TRAIL is 11 with a 41 day absence

FOREST BIHAN fails a generic statistic
No 7yo won a festival handcap with 11st 8lbs +

NORTH HILL HARVEY is a 7yo with 11st 8lbs
He fails that albeit by the bare minimum
He only has 4 chase runs as well

LE PREZIEN fails the same statistic

Horses from Non Handicap Pattern Chases
With 11st 3lbs or more have a 1-77 record
VANITEUX fails this generic statistic
VALDEZ also has this problem
NORTH HILL HARVEY also fails this angle

Cheltenham since 2014
Graded Handicap Chases
12 of these races
12 winners had the following Chases runs
11 6 5 3 11 11 9 11 12 9 8 5
All 12 winners were lightly raced Chasers
Horses with 13+ Chase runs were 0-108
The Following fail this 0-108 statistic
And look too exposed
EASTLAKE - DRESDEN - THEINVAL
BRIGHT NEW DAWN - TOP GAMBLE
THE GAME CHANGER - SIZING PLATINUM
FOXTAIL HILL - GINO TRAIL - VANITEUX
DOITTOTHEVILLAGE has 14 Chase runs
He therefore fails a Generic Statistic

ROCK THE WORLD is also too exposed
He won this race last year
He was 3rd in the 2016 renewal
Gallant as he is he is now a 10yo
He's raced just once in 226 days now
THREE STARS also fails this angle albeit just

Cheltenham Handicaps since 2012
Chases and Hurdles
Horses aged 10 or more
They have a 1-165 record
Several already discounted fail this
SOME PLAN is added to the negatives

DOLOS is only a 5 year old
Inexperienced with 3 Chase starts
No 5yo has won a handicap here since 2003
Only 2 have done it in the last 20 years
Both had far less weight than he has
Surely 11st 5lbs is too much for a 5yo

GARDE LE VICTOIRE has 129 days off
I can't trust him with topweight/absence

DON'T TOUCH IT has a chance
What worries me with a horse with 11st 7lbs
He fell at the 4th last time
He's only had 1 other run since August
He feels underraced this season

BOUVREUIL is a 7yo absent 109 days
He's only raced once since October
His best numbers are over further
I'd have wanted a busier campaign

BORN SURVIVOR is a 7yo
He has to combine just 3 chase runs
With an 83 day absence
That would worry me

Selection

TOWNSHEND 25/1

Each Way

He has a reasonable enough profile
Not strong objections to his chance
Breeding stats show this is his best trip

I'd have liked more options
We have very little safety net here
But I can't stake for the sake of it
On a horse I do not fancy much