Expected Return and Payout from Gambling with Steem

in #gambling3 years ago (edited)

Online casinos are for profit so unless you are lucky, you will lose money. The Expected Return and Payout on various Steem related casinos varies significantly. Some sites have better odds than others, some offer more incentives to play their games and some have competitions to drive volume. Today we will get into the basics comparing six Steem gaming sites which now exist. In no way am I suggesting you gamble, break the law, invest in a casino or trade their tokens. Use these sites at your own risk!

Your returns will definitely not look like this
cash-coins-currency-40140.jpgsource

Five gaming sites with tokens are operated by @magicdice, @steem-bet, @epicdice, @kryptogames and @cupz (Referral links at the bottom.) There is also another new gaming site found here https://www.steem-roller.com/ which doesn't have tokens. I don't want to go too much into the tokens with this post as they bring a whole new dynamic, but I will say, it is not worth mining them.

Magicdice

The first and most popular site is Magicdice. I just wrote a post about why I quit playing it found here. With Magicdice you can bet over or under a number from 1 to 100, in the event of a tie you lose and the house keeps 1%. If you roll 100 times at an under 50 bet, you should win 49 times. This means you will pay 100 Steem and win 98, the house edge is 2%. You will also mine 1250 tokens which will definitely not get you onto any leaderboards.

Since there are over 2 billion tokens outstanding, your 1,250/2,050,000,000 shares in the daily profits will be extremely insignificant. If the prize pool is 2000 Steem, you will get 0.001 Steem. This is why I am leaving it out of the discussion. Mining these tokens is not worth it! Since the house takes 2% of bets and distributes 40% of that to token holders, they need to see 250000 Steem bet to pay your 0.001 Steem. As you can see, these tokens aren't worth much and require a consistently high gambling volume to pay out anything to all but the largest of holders. To rank on a leaderboard, you would have to gamble at least 1000 Steem, if the leaderboard becomes easier to rank on, the payout will be less, as you can see, it's only really worthwhile for the winners and they are risking a lot of Steem.

Magicdice will cost you 0.0199 Steem, per Steem bet considering their tokens.

Steem-Bet

Another game to lose your hard earned Steem on is Steem-Bet. The house edge is the same as Magicdice, so you will lose 0.02 Steem, per Steem bet. Right now, the mining rate is higher than on Magicdice as you get 50 SBT tokens per Steem wagered(soon to be 25) and there are less outstanding so they are worth slightly more than Magic, let's be really generous and say double. The volume is very low compared to Magicdice but they will soon have new games out and offer better customer service. They just paid their first dividend (which was a couple of months worth at once and promise to pay daily in the next few days.


IMG_20190512_125518.jpg

As you can see, I know what I'm talking about being one of the largest stakeholders. This dividend was once only and will decrease as more tokens are mined, please don't get too excited, I played a lot and was able to early mine at a 5x higher rate. I am way up on that site and will provide proof in the comments. They pay 40% of the house take to SBT holders and are currently selling SPT tokens for an additional 30% take white paper they also have prizes but they aren't consistent enough to analyze. I don't recommend investing in SPT, they have not provided me with any proof that they aren't money launders, tax evaders, terrorists or criminals. I don't think their tokens are worth much more than 0.001 Steem per Steem wagered either.

Steem-Bet will cost you 0.0199 Steem, per Steem bet considering their tokens

Krypto Gamers

This website is my favourite because they have blackjack, video poker and dice. I will not get into the blackjack odds, but if you know how to play, it has the best Payout and Expected Return as seen at the wizard of odds as you will only lose around 0.004 Steem per Steem bet. You also mine tokens, so it's pretty good. One mistake though and the odds can be terrible. It is not dice. I won't discuss video poker, the odds are on their website and it's not my thing. Their dice game is pretty good, as they payout 1% more than the other sites per Steem bet meaning the house edge is 50% of what it is on the above two. For this reason, it is much better to play here than on Steem-Bet or Magicdice.

Kytpogames has its own token system too, GAMER. They have a unique system which gives you more tokens as you bet more per month and if you bet a lot you can get an insured bet which means if you lose, you get your wager returned to you. 70% of the daily profits are paid to token holders as well, so the tokens are better than on other sites. If the house loses money though, you will not get paid for holding tokens. Because the house edge is worse, the 70% is not as good as 40% on the other sites, but I suspect anyone who knows basic math will stop gambling on the other sites. This site is literally twice as good as Magicdice or Steembet from an Expected Payout and Return perspective.

Krypto Gamers will cost 0.009 Steem, per Steem bet considering their tokens

Epicdice

(i)Edited(/i)
There is a 2% house edge, originally they had a 1.5% promotion. Rolling under 50 which has a 49/100 chance there will be a payout of 2 Steem, per Steem bet. So you are losing 2% here which is the same as Magicdice and Steem-Bet. They also own a lot of their own tokens and have a very low maximum payout of 100 Steem on wagers. This site has been down for maintenance quite a bit but they have great customer service and a simple yet attractive intereface.

On days when the house wins money, you can earn a decent return holding tokens because not many are outstanding. It only takes one really unlucky gambler to make a big payout or one lucky gambler to make zero payouts. We can't really analyze the value of the tokens, so let's just say 0.001 again per Steem bet.

Epicdice will cost you 0.0199 Steem, per Steem bet considering their tokens

Cupz

A relatively new site with very low volume, there is a 2% house cut on all bets and the odds depend on the game. It is new, it is unique and you can use my referral at your own risk https://cupz.io?referrer=crypticat the are player vs player games, games for Cupz holders only and player vs house games. I won't get into the details here because you win back some of the money you lose as a token holder and the history is too short. The volume is low and the site states a 2% edge.

Cupz will (probably) cost 0.0199 Steem, per Steem all considered

Steem-Roller

This gaming site is new and has the best potential. The developer @klye is also a Steem witness. You should vote for witness here https://steemitwallet.com/~witnesses they keep the integrity of the blockchain. This website is new and unique, as Klye states, 'there is no token bullshit.' players and investors only get paid in cold, hard Steem. You can invest and divest your Steem at the push of a button. The website takes deposits and withdrawals so it is significantly faster than the other sites and the house edge is close 1% so it is comparable to Krypto Gamers. You can gamble anonymously as you create your own profile on the website. Disclaimer: I am invested here with leverage and in no way am I suggesting you invest.

Unlike the other sites, you can wager on extremes and decimals. For example, you can bet that you will roll under 0.001, you probably won't but if you do the payout will be staggering. The site allows for fractions too and the payouts are currently limited by the amount invested on the site. Because it is new and Beta, exercise caution. Since you can roll below 1 unlike the other sites, the house edge is 1%. You can also roll over a number like in Magicdice. There are no tokens but you can choose to be the house too, so if you are invested, the developers only take 10%, so you will only be losing a percentage of the 1% percent. Depending on how invested you are, it can significantly vary. I would say it's better than Krypto Gamers and you don't have to wait 24 hours for payouts and there is no house winning or losing period, its per bet and almost instant.

Also, Steem-Roller requires you to sign up and attest to your age and eligibility to legally gamble. The fact that it is the only site to do at least basic due diligence makes it the most trustworthy in my opinion. All anonymous gaming websites could be funding terrorism, engaging in money laundering and tax evasion. They could be funding organized criminal organizations as well, so please use your judgment. Since most of the owners refuse to disclose their linked-in profiles, names, pictures, and addresses. We can assume they have something to hide.

Conclusion

  • Avoid all gaming sites if you expect to make money
  • Mining tokens is a terrible investment
  • If you want to invest in a casino, https://www.steem-roller.com/# is the best as investors get 90% of the profits
  • The best odds are found on Kryptogamers and Steem-Roller
  • Steem-bet has had significant problems in the past with customer service
  • Magicdice has been surpassed by almost every other site and does nothing about it

Referal links

If you use my referrals and provide proof I will reward you with upvotes, @steembasicincome shares and maybe even some cold hard steem. Gamble at your own risk. This is not financial advice and I don't recommend investing in Steem powered casinos. I am not responsible for your losses.

https://cupz.io?referrer=crypticat

https://steem-bet.com?ref=crypticat

https://magic-dice.com/?ref=crypticat

https://epicdice.io/?ref=crypticat

https://kryptogamers.com/?ref=crypticat

I hope you enjoyed reading, open debate is encouraged and no hard feelings if you operate one of these gaming websites.

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I used your referral to sign up to cupz but I'm not sure how to prove it. If you want to send me anything I would prefer shares in SBI.

Thanks for this post. it was helpful in a bunch of different ways.

I do most of my daily internet on a mobile device so I hadn't installed the Steem Keychain yet and had no experience with it.

Steem Keychain is COOL if you haven't installed it yet, do it now.

Way to go @stoodkev Good job on the Keychain, you and yours make me hopeful for the future of steem.

Keep it up.

Thanks, I'll buy you 3 shares for letting me know!

Posted using Partiko Android

Steemkey chain is great and makes it very safe. Better than giving various posting permissions to multiple apps

Posted using Partiko Android

Thanks man. i
Is there a place where you can see who has used your referral?

Not sure, I just saw that someone used my referral and that you played quite a bit. Thanks again and good luck!

Posted using Partiko Android

!bookkeeping s magicdice

!magicdice

Hi @mulletwang!

magicdice

Received:

  • 4186.800 STEEM
  • 0.000 STEEM from referral
  • 0.073 STEEM from delegation
  • 19.023 STEEM from dividends
  • 41.343 SBD
  • 0.000 SBD from referral
  • 0.000 SBD from delegation
  • 0.113 SBD from dividends

Spent:

  • 4261.423 STEEM
  • 57.409 SBD

Total:

  • -55.527 STEEM
  • -15.953 SBD

Apprecaite the honourable mentions of Steem-Roller.com and the good review!

The site isn't quite finished yet however is playable at this point and investing is enabled. Play at your own risk of course given the site is still very much in development. <3

Good luck with your site @klye !👍👍👍🎲

Your welcome 😀🙋

Posted using Partiko Android

Just to add, insured bet on kryptogamers is capped to 10 steem.

Yes, those are worth something I suppose but you have to wager a lot to get even one.

They say it is a 1% house edge, but it is not.

The house edge was 2% all the time, it was 1.5% when the game was first launched and adjusted back to 2% afterward. We don't need players to trust us, as we are running a trust-less system base on utter transparency.

Thanks for the mention anyway!

Thank you for letting us know. One good thing about your site is that there are very few outstanding tokens and no one can accuse you guys of pre-mining. Most of the other sites had suspiciously large amounts of tokens mined early. I removed the criticism and corrected my mistakes because you guys actually care and follow the community. Thank you for caring.

So true, as they say " Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it!" I actually tried a couple of these all ready for a small amount with no success, but I will try out the one from @klye steem-roller soon. Awesome post, upped and resteemed!👍🎰🎲🃏

Thanks Karen, really appreciate you dropping by 🐱

Your welcome 😀🙋🐱

Posted using Partiko Android

Thank you for your post.

Posted using Partiko Android

Thank you for your upvote

Thanks for the mention, this is a great and nicely balance comparison of the current available gambling apps. As you mentioned we are a fairly new comer to the game and we're open to any suggestions for improvement.

Great, maybe we can have a chat on your discord.

This is in line with my thoughts on these gambling sites.

Play because you like it or because you feel lucky on their site.

Also the 1% house edge and referral link (use an alt to sign up or gamble) is way better than any token.

I find the declining token rewards and the referral systems to be very pyramid-like. The order books for the tokens you can sell are kinda like novels that only have writing on one side of the page.

Yes, the more they give away the less they are worth. Serious declining marginal utility. As soon as the bots turn off and dividends drop it will be a downward spiral for most of these tokens.

Posted using Partiko Android

Well, I'm glad you told me to check out your article as I seem to be gambling on the worse casino. Steem rollers seems to be the best based on everything here. Betting in .001 would be completely insane though, I would stick to regular numbers.

You got a 34.66% upvote from @ocdb courtesy of @crypticat! :)

@ocdb is a non-profit bidbot for whitelisted Steemians, current max bid is 20 SBD and the equivalent amount in STEEM.
Check our website https://thegoodwhales.io/ for the whitelist, queue and delegation info. Join our Discord channel for more information.

If you like what @ocd does, consider voting for ocd-witness through SteemConnect or on the Steemit Witnesses page. :)

Proof that my referrals are lucky and I am lucky, you may have seen I'm up considerably on Magicdice from my last post about it.
!bookkeeping steembet

Hi @crypticat!

steembet

Received:

  • 23731.937 STEEM
  • 622.874 SBD

Spent:

  • 23000.834 STEEM
  • 651.966 SBD

Total:

  • 731.103 STEEM
  • -29.092 SBD

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