It's hard to predict the future (video/podcast)

3 months ago

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If you've never attempted to predict the future, and someone comes to you with a graph showing a clear trend, you might be tempted into thinking that that person knows what's going to happen. The numbers don't lie, and all we have to do is see where they go, to know what's going to happen. Right? Wrong.

If you have tried to look into the future, and spent more than a few hours pondering about what the world will look like in five or ten years, you will know that it takes more than one graph or one trend line. Futurism requires looking at many trends, projecting how they might continue, and then imagining how they might interact - how one trend will accelerate another, and cause others to reverse.

Intelligent people, even be experts in their field, may recognise current trends, but that doesn't mean that they have the skills to see where things will go in coming years. The problem is compounded when experts don't recognise that futurism is actually outside their area of expertise.

In 1894, horse manure was such a problem in large cities that the New York Times predicted that in 50 years, the city would be covered by 9 feet of horse manure. It made perfect sense - that's where the trend line lead. Likewise, people might tell you today that less and less jobs are being created, and when the new wave of automation arrives, young people will be permanently unemployed. Or they will tell you that the high birth rates of middle eastern countries compared to western countries mean that western culture will simply be bred out of existence.

What are the other factors at play? How can these simplified assessments be used to manipulate us, when they come from someone with an agenda? Find out in this trend-defying episode of ... The Paradise Paradox!

To download the audio, right click here and press ‘Save as’

View the full shownotes here: It’s hard to predict the future: The Paradise Paradox Episode 168


About us

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The Paradise Paradox is a podcast where we talk about crazy ideas for open-minded people. We cover topics such as crypto-currency, technology, politics, economics, freedom, free-thinking, and psychedelic experiences.

We're reposting our content from our website. To confirm that it's really us, or to read the full shownotes including related episodes and pertinent links, go to The Paradise Paradox

If you enjoyed the episode, please upvote, leave us a comment with your thoughts, and press follow. You can also follow Aaron on Steemit here: @battleayzee, and Kurt here @churdtzu for more fascinating stories and articles.

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@paradise-paradox
I certainly welcome this kind of thinking because I am a huge supporter of free thought and the expression of ideas, even if I don't agree with them. I believe in standing up for your right to disagree with me. That's what makes free speech such an awesome thing!

Upvoted

love your videos Kurt :) keep the coming

Keep up the good work , the future is always unpredictable

@paradise-paradox very interesting and informative read guys keep up the great work and nice to meet keep steeming

very interesting to read. Good work guys :)

Its inspirational post for me..I am on that situation what you mentioned in your article...Thanks for the sharing such nice and fruitful article...Upvoted

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Hm... you're going to have to try harder than that.

I'm not going to flag you, but remember that many people would consider this spam. Steemit is a community, and people like it when you really read their articles and contribute an interesting comment. If you can't do that, at least make the comment unique and positive. Have a good one.