Embrace Failure, Accept Risk
Changes are coming thick and fast, and we are all going to need to "Choose Ourselves", as James Altucher says. The entire global financial system is changing right now. Central banks are running monumentally risky experiments on our monetary system. Technology is changing the entire structure of work, learning, and markets. Everyone is going to need to embrace failure and accept risk.
Failure teaches with a big stick and lots of little needles. The big stick is that pain in your gut when you realize you fucked it all up. The little needles are the doubt, depression, and negative thinking that arise from failing.
What that pain is teaching you is important. So, embrace it.
Instead of burying the pain, feel it. Breath in, let it flow through you. Then think about what happened.
When in doubt, write it out.
I often dont write it out, because I am still learning to deal with my emotions. But I have gotten much better at doing it, and I have improved every time I do.
Failing as a sport.
I have worked as a trader for over 10 years. Trading is a lot like baseball. It is a failing sport. Trading is a failing game. Assuming you are a profitable trader, the higher your win percentage, the smaller your winners are. The lower your win percentage, the bigger your winners are. There are always exceptions, but for the vast majority thats the way it plays out.
Most profitable traders hover around a 40 - 50% win rate. Yes, that is right, flipping a coin is better at trade selection than most traders.
The difference is how much risk is taken per trade and what happens after the trade starts.
Most traders derive their profitability from around 15% of their trades. That means the rest is break even nonsense.
Dealing with being utterly wrong so often is a tremendous test. All of the, shall we say, quirks of one's character comes out of hiding and must be examined. We are emotional bastards.
The time to keep on pushing is when you feel the pain.
It means you are getting closer. You have eliminated one way of doing things. So, take notes, examine the fuck ups, and:
GO AGAIN!
Accepting risk is difficult, especially since the way our education system is setup utterly fails to teach us about risk. In order to pass you have to be right 70% of the time. Sorry, not in the real world.
Obviously, if I misspell 30% of the words in this post, you will have a laugh, and it will be complete nonsense.
This is not a spelling bee.
Think of it more like stumbling through a fog and finding your way through a forest. Some places there are well worn paths, but they disappear and everything is a mess and you have to proceed with caution. To quote Cold Play...no I wont go there. :p
"You can't Google judgement." - Jim Rogers
We are all actually pretty decent at evaluating risk (as a species, but a cursory glance at the Darwin awards proves that not all of us are...), but its not always so clear. The best source that I have found on understanding risk in REAL WORLD terms is Nassim Taleb. I highly recommend all of his books, but most of all Antifragile. The gist of the book is that something is antifragile if it gains from harm. Think muscles, The Blob, or the slime in Ghostbusters 2. There are things we can do to expose ourselves to minimal loss, while having unlimited upside. A good example is writing a post on Steemit. My risk is my time spent, and maybe looking foolish if the end product is shit. However my upside is unlimited. I could make a decent return if enough people like it, but I also gain by having gone through the process of putting thoughts down in a (moderately) coherent manner. That could lead anywhere, and with the vast majority of outcomes being beneficial.
The most risky thing is actually not taking any risks