Game Show Contest Winners Announced (and an explanation of WHY they won...)
Game Show Winners Announced!
About a month ago, I held a contest which allowed users to choose between three different doors, Door #1, Door #2, and Door #3. Go here to read the full instructions for the contest for a little bit of context.
In the scenario, you, the contestant, initially chose Door #2. Then, once you picked Door #2, the host opened up the third door to reveal that behind Door #3 was a goat, instead of the Grand Prize...
At that time, you had to make a choice...
Do you keep Door #2? Or do you switch to Door #1?
If you're like me, you probably would have thought..."there's a 50/50 chance here, either door could be the answer." While it's true that either door could be the answer, one of the doors actually has a higher probability of being correct than the other.
Let's break it down...
When you first start, there is a 1/3 probability that the door you choose is the correct door with the grand prize, because only one door is a winner. Door #1 has a 1/3 probability, Door #2 has a 1/3 probability, and Door #3 has a 1/3 probability. Pretty basic so far.
Now, in this scenario, you initially chose Door #2, which has a 1/3 probability of being the correct door. The host opened up Door #3 to reveal a goat, eliminating one of the possible doors and removing one of the possible "losing" doors. Your initial choice of Door #2 still contains a 1/3 probability of being the correct door...but because the host eliminated one of the "losing" doors based on your choice, that means that Door #1 now has a 2/3 probability of being the correct door, while Door #2 still contains the original 1/3 probability.
It is NOT a 50/50 probability!
You should ALWAYS switch to the other door!
For an explanation, look up the Monty Hall Problem. You can play a game on this page that randomizes a winning door and demonstrates how switching results in a higher probability of success.
Did this confuse you or make you think twice? Don't feel bad, until I really thought it through, I would have thought it was a 50/50 probability between the two remaining doors as well. In fact, this puzzle has fooled many, many PhDs and statisticians.
The Winners!
A big thanks to all that played, the winners are those that chose to SWITCH to Door #1. There was a total of $3.36 ($2.27 + $1.09) in Author Payouts between the two posts I made about it, so I'm dividing up that amount to send to all the winners who participated. Please congratulate those who won:
- @steveblack
- @utzo
- @nyarlathotep
- @neohodler
- @elbiasto
- @marlozad
- @cryptobychirag
- @bigbanginfinity
- @quekery
Since there are 9 winners, the $3.36 will be divided into payments of $0.373 SBD for each of you. I'll also send a small token payment of $0.02 (get it?) to the 8 other people who participated but choose to keep Door #2.
Thanks for playing! For more news and games like this, be sure to follow me.
thanks for the prize, good initiative I hope to continue participating in your contests 👍👍😁
Thanks a lot for upvoting and replying, I'm not sure if you have heard of the Monty Hall Problem even though you won, but I hope you learned something new!
Congratulations! This post has been upvoted from the communal account, @minnowsupport, by Rhodesware from the Minnow Support Project. It's a witness project run by aggroed, ausbitbank, teamsteem, theprophet0, someguy123, neoxian, followbtcnews/crimsonclad, and netuoso. The goal is to help Steemit grow by supporting Minnows and creating a social network. Please find us in the Peace, Abundance, and Liberty Network (PALnet) Discord Channel. It's a completely public and open space to all members of the Steemit community who voluntarily choose to be there.
Thanks for the reward, keep up the good puzzle contests!
Your post is very interesting.
I've resteemed your post!