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RE: On the Path to Financial Independence: Want tax free income? Try Municipal Bonds!

in #freedom8 years ago (edited)

I think it is necessary to point out that although Muni bonds have attractive features, including higher after tax yield than certain other securities they also pose significant risks, including PRICE RISK and CREDIT RISK. Muni prices move inversely to interest rates. In simple terms, this means that if rates go up, bond prices (i.e. the price you can sell the bond for on the open market prior to maturity) goes down. Depending on the duration (how much time left to the maturity date), even small changes in rates can cause HUUGE fluctuations in price. Anyone buying bonds today needs to understand that rates are at historically low levels, and as a result, the risk of market declines is significant if rates move up. In general, the higher the yield, the longer the duration and the greater the price risk. Also, many of these bonds have significant CREDIT RISK. This is the risk that the issuer will not be able to pay the interest or principal at maturity. This has happened before, and WILL happen again. Just need to watch the Detroit, San Bernardino CA or Puerto Rico situations if you doubt it. As I've written elsewhere, I agree that bonds and particularly sovereign debt, can be described as the "Mother of all Bubbles", and I've predicted it will not end well for bond investors.

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Do you have any sources you can cite? Or are you someone with qualified expertise in finance? You might be right about the risks, but I'd like to see where it's written.

As far as bubble, that could also apply to housing, stocks, and just about everything in this economy. So if sovereign debt is a bubble then what is safe?

Yes. I'm highly qualified in financial matters, but the points I'm making are elementary and non-controversial. Anyone with a passing knowledge of bond fundamentals would agree with me. [point of clarification: The non-controversial part is that there are significant risks from both interest rate price sensitivity and credit quality. Not all would agree that we are in a "bubble"].

Right, would you care to outline your qualifications at least? Just saying anyone would agree with you, without citing sources or qualifications, is vague. In my post, I did cite the sources which I am guessing you disagree with? So are there some people with similar qualifications who say what you are saying?

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