Market Brief Series / EP. 447 / 19th Nov. 2018

lordoftruth (71)in #forex • 6 years ago

Overall there is strength in the EUR and JPY, with minor strength in the AUD, CHF and NZD. Weakness in the USD, CAD and GBP.
Oil prices edged up on Monday morning in Asia as de-facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia drives the organization and its allies to slash supply to boost oil prices after a sell-off earlier this month.
Gold is flat lined below the 100-day EMA of $1,224 in Asia, having failed to take out that hurdle on Friday, despite the weakness in the US dollar.
USD was dragged lower by dovish comments made by the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, who pointed out that the central bank is getting closer to the neutral rate amid some evidence of a slowing global economy. Meanwhile, China’s holdings of US Treasuries fell to a more than one-year low of $1.15 trillion in September, according to the US Treasury.
GBP/USD is trading flatly just north of 1.2800 heading into London's Monday market session with Brexit concerns once again coming into full view of market participants.
USD/JPY one-month 25 delta risk reversals are currently trading at -1.25 in favor of put options (bearish bets). That is the lowest level since Oct. 30.
EUR/USD accelerated to the upside and broke the key resistance level at 1.1365, which becomes the key support now. So, as long as 1.1365 is not broken, expect a challenge to 1.1425. Alternatively, crossing below 1.1365 would bring a deeper pullback with 1.1320 as target.
On the data slate there’s Euro-Zone Current Account; Euro-Zone EU Financial Stability Review; German Buba Monthly Report; Euro-Zone Construction Output; US Housing Market Index; US FOMC Member Williams Speech and US 3- and 6-Month Bill Auctions.

Today Trading Plan

SELL EUR/USD @ 1.1420 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.1465 – TARGE T @ 1.1350
SELL GBP/USD @ 1.2840 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1.2890 - TARGET @ 1.2750
BUY USD/JPY @ 112.65 OR BETTER – STOP @ 112.00 – TARGET @ 113.25
SELL CL1218 @ 57.50 OR BETTER – STOP @ 58.00 – TARGET @ 55.80
SELL AUD/USD @ 0.7330 OR BETTER – STOP @ 0.7370 – TARGET @ 0.7260
SELL XAU @ 1224 OR BETTER – STOP @ 1229 – TARGET @ 1205
SELL XAG @ 14.40 OR BETTER – STOP @ 14.90 – TARGET @ 13.50

THE ABOVE BRIEF IS MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE ANY PROMISES OR GUARANTEES OF PROFITS. TRADING IN CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES ARE HIGH RISKS. YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL POSTED AS RECOMMENDATION.