Saturday Forex Analysis - 2018-03-17
Saturday Forex Analysis - Mar 17th, 2018
The strategies discussed below are suitable for swing traders.
CAD
usdCAD was playing with us, but it’s actually a good and healthy movement. It tried to pull back to the EMA-200 to “take a breath” before shooting up to the top. I think the top channel would be quite a resistance considering the RSI is also already on an overbought level and currently there’s a small divergence between RSI and the price. If you are still holding your buy position, you might want to hold on and liquidate near the resistance trendline. If you have no position, try to get clear signal later on.
JPY
usdJPY was moving near the lower channel of 105.5 - 106.5 and moving beautifully along the down trendline. What concerns me is the slope of that trendline, it’s too “sharp”, making it not a healthy price action. The EMAs also haven’t caught up with the current price, and there’s an RSI divergence for JPY. For me, JPY movement could be considered as the “wild west”, anything could happen. Although I would like to see the price consolidate for a while, to gain power and clearer signal.
GBP
GBPusd was practically not moving last week. Almost all technical indicators such as MACD and RSI are near their equilibrium states, MACD nearing zero while RSI nearing 50. It seems it would go higher, but let’s wait for a clearer signal.
AUD & NZD
Both AUD & NZD were moving downward. The last closing price of NZD could be considered as a nice support line. So NZD is at its support line, will it bounce and go up or will it break it’s support? Let’s wait the signal. AUD Friday closing price broke both the EMA and the trendline. We can predict that it will go down trying to touch the next support trendline. NZD at its support and AUD has broken its support. Both pairs are closely correlated, so, will NZD follow AUD movement and break its support? Let’s see how it goes.
EUR & CHF
EUR was practically not moving last week. It’s forming a little channel at the top. The price is touching the EMA-50 and almost all technical indicators such as MACD and RSI are also in equilibrium. CHF is nearing its resistance trendline, however it could go to both direction. Seeing from the graph how both the EMA-200 and the top resistance trendline are moving closely, they would serve as a strong resistance signal if CHF is moving upward.
Conclusion
RSI divergences can be found on CAD and JPY, although both are not giving clear entry signal. Almost all technical indicators for GBP and EUR are in equilibrium. Alas, there’s no clear signal on all major pairs. I would stay away from forex this week, only to look at AUD / NZD if they are giving another signal.
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I didn't know you were a forex trader. I traded for a while but I find it a bit stressful. I have some dust left in an account so I decided to run a trade this week, shorted USD/JPY turned out to be a good move ☺️ when I'm trading I can't stop looking at the chart though 😖
It's nice to see profit right. :D And the "Can't stop looking at the chart", well, it happens to all of us. I normally can't stop looking at a chart when there is a crypto Pump n Dump. 😖
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