AUD/USD Key Points
- AUD/USD holding higher time frame resistance.
- Retest of short term, intraday support turned resistance gave a short entry with minimal drawdown.
- The Aussie is now at the mercy of macro risk-on/risk-off flows, stemming from China v Hong Kong tensions.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Yesterday we spoke about the bears regaining control of AUD/USD, as price retested higher time frame broken support as resistance and couldn't break back above the zone.
You can click the link in the paragraph above to read the full piece of AUD/USD analysis with a look across multiple time frames, but the following excerpt shows the intraday zone that we were looking to use as an entry:
You can see on the hourly that price has printed a nice short term area of support that if retested, would be an excellent place to short.
An entry that played out very cleanly, with minimal drawdown:
When higher time frame resistance holds, the market is going to go down. By selling short term rallies into previous intraday support turned resistance, you're giving yourself the best chance for a low risk, high reward entry.
Of course it's always nice when setups like this just work, but using support/resistance levels in conjunction with price action like this, puts us in a position to take advantage. Being in the market during the highest probability of a move is one of the keys to successful trading.
Today's NAB Business Confidence number was total trash, but forex markets are all caught up in a macro level theme where it doesn't know how to react to China's military build up in Shenzhen, the mainland city that close to borders Hong Kong.
The question becomes whether you think the Aussie fundamentals are so trash that they outweigh a major international conflict that will have wide ranging ramifications for global democracy. I'd say probably not and all that matters is the risk-on/risk-off flows that we'll see over the next couple of trading sessions.
Best of probabilities to you!
Economic Releases of Note
AUD NAB Business Confidence
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