AUD/USD Key Points

• Higher time frame, AUD/USD resistance.
• Price showing weakness at resistance.
• Looking for intrday short term retests to short into.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Morning team,

After the RBA minutes sent AUD/USD toward the lowest price in a decade, price has done nothing but rally like a boss. Through cuts, through bad Aussie economic data, AUD/USD just doesn't care and has just continued on its bullish march.

With that being said, price SHOULD be falling. I see this more as all of the weak hands being shaken out, before price resumes its long term bearish trend. But technicals never lie and most definitely help us predict future price movements.

Now take a look at what we have on the AUD/USD 4 hour chart below:

That's a pretty strong, confluence of resistance that price is butting up against, yeah? We have a horizontal zone as well as the upper trend line resistance line from a rising wedge that you can complete on your own chart if you need to.

So with fundamentals telling us that price should be heading lower and the higher time frame chart at clear resistance, it might be time to start to look for a short entry.

I've zoomed into the AUD/USD 15 minute chart below:

You can see that after dropping off higher time frame resistance, price first stalled at the candle where I have drawn the grey box from. This is the intrday short term level that I'm now looking to manage my risk around.

Aggressive traders will place their stops above the grey box, while more conservative traders might keep their stops above the higher time frame resistance zone and go for a bigger move. It's entirely up to you and your own unique trading style.

Just keep in mind that we have NFP tonight and either way, this chart is probably going to get destroyed before then. Make sure you manage your risk accordingly!

Best of probabilities to you,

Dane.

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