Follow us on facebook for more signals on stocks, forex, and cryptocurrency!
So today we have seen the same as a week ago, one big Bitcoin -2.15%whale buying around 10.000 Bitcoins -2.15%around 6300 again, almost the same as a week ago. Now I keep wondering, if that whale that bought everything up at that blue circle a week ago, does he still have them, did he unload at the highs? Did he just dump these and did another one buy them up? (don't think so). Or is it just wash trading to confuse us all.
If not, looking at these big sell candles at the lows, i can't stop wondering, if there isn't just someone buying up this weak market at the moment. When we broke the 6000 buy wall where a big number of btc -2.15%was waiting to get sold into (think there we did see wash trading) but instead of big panic, the price just got bought up, back into the 6K's. Like someone was just waiting to catch the panic selling between 5999 and 5800. A week has passed already and one fake upwards break out after the other, this market is still very weak. Were they not finished accumulating or is the market just too weak and this whale is running out of funds as well. We can't know, one thing is sure, games are being played. Impossible to know if he did not unload already, maybe he is even giving a fake signal to the bulls. Can't say yet if we have an April low move here, the whales keep mixing it up and getting better in hiding their footprints.
On the right we see a clear bearish version, a standard bear flag telling us the market wants to make another big wave down again. This market is not even a bear market anymore, it has become a trap market :) Shorts on Bitfinex are around ATH -0.64%, the same was going on in April, but it would be too easy IMO 2.00%if they would play the same game again. The biggest difference this time I think, is Bitmex. Volume has increased even more the past 2 months and there were allot more shorts open on Bitmex than we have now. Based on that, we would have to drop much more, somewhere in the middle 5K levels. But that would invalidate the theory above.
So even if this bear flag would break, be aware for a big bear trap. This means a quick drop to 5900/5600 and a big volume jump up again back into the flag.
I thought after the 6400 broke we would probably brake the 6300 as well, but that big whale prevented that. Other exchanges were 50 to 80 points lower, but 1 person is possible to keep the market up, only in crypto people :). So my best guess is, another drop after this small bear flag finishes towards 6100. Depending on how the price will react there, we might get some answers. The moment we are waiting for is a drop, maybe a V shape low or maybe a big flag and a Bart move up, that could indicate the low. If we don't see a big bounce up, the bears will probably still be in control. I think the bullish view has the biggest chance of succeeding, but i always try to look at the moment it's self. Just too many variables at the moment. If i am able to catch the low through a certain pattern and i catch the low, then i am in good shape. But predicting what we will do the coming days, is too difficult. Based on the alts not making new lows, think we need to stay above the 6100, otherwise chances increase another round of panic in the market will occur. Whatever happens, lets hope we don't go sideways for another week.
(Courtesy of my friend Bolin Tajike)