Stick's Picks : My guidelines and betting strategy
Before I begin let me begin with a disclaimer:
I have been placing little football bets for a couple of years now and like Investing I only used small amounts. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please see my personal betting guidelines below.
I always bet in person,that is go to the betting shop. This makes it more of an effort and sometimes stops me from betting due to being lazy. My laziness saves me money.I save up my change and use that on the weekend to bet with. I never bet online too risky.
The stake I bet is never more than £1. Yes, I know I am so boring but I am also not about to get my legs broken. Like most people I live in a big expensive city so when my bets come through. The reward is some beers maybe a nice meal . Simple pleasures.
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT. It is all luck, again like investing nobody knows if the stock is going up or down , just like nobody knows the result of a sports game .There are popular results however that is still not a guarantee. Therefore when you do win it is down to luck . You not smart, you not Nostradamus you got lucky ! You can structure your strategy so your luck improves but that is about it. This coming from a guy who downloads six seasons of results and analyses the data.
- THIS IS JUST AS IMPORTANT , WHEN YOU WIN, SPEND !!!!!!! THE DUMBER THE BETTER . THINK BREWSTER'S MILLIONS. Have an impromptu BBQ with your mates, take your girl out for a nice meal , buy a stranger a drink. Whatever keep it loose. The best payout I ever got was £135 off 0.50p . I bought my flatmate a bottle of whisky and took my girl to a football game and paid for everything. Spent it all in two days and loved it . The reason for this is to not get used to it and enjoy this gift life has thrown as you . Worst case scenario is you belive your own bullshit ! and listen when your ego tells you " you got this now up your stakes".
When I do bet I either go for an accumulator bet or I go for the correct result. With an accumulator bet you pick the results of a bunch of games and if all the games come in you get a payout. With the correct result in football (soccer) games, I go for the following results ,1-0 , 1-1 and 2-1 as according to my data these are the most popular. Unfortunately the data shows that these results represent between 9% and 11% of total games played . Even the data tells me its all about luck
Thankfully last night the 1-1 result came through so that means I get to buy two beers tonight . Living the dream my friends !!!
Well written!
Even though I don't fully agree on everything, I actually enjoyed reading this.
Keep it up and best of luck with the bets.
Thank you , what didn't you agree with im keen to know is it the guidelines or the data ?
I actually wouldn't call at not agreeing as you are fully consistent in what you say which is a good thing. It's more that I approach things from a different angle. I'm planning on writing an article about betting and how the brain likes to think in absolutes early next week which should better explain where I'm coming from.
Awesome i look forward to it
Great post. Was fun to read it. I also don't agree on everything but love to hear different angles. Wish you a lot of (how you are calling it) luck :)
Thank you sir what bits do you disagree on , always keen to hear another point of view.