Euro Cup Showdown: The Netherlands' Uphill Battle Against a France Without Mbappé

Euro Cup: Netherlands vs France

Kick-off time: 06-22 03:00

The Netherlands were grouped with France in the qualifiers, and unexpectedly, they found themselves in the same group again for the main tournament.

But even in such a group, which includes France, Greece, Ireland, and Gibraltar, the Netherlands had a bumpy ride.

For instance, against Ireland, the Netherlands only managed to turn the tide in the second half; and in Athens, Van Dijk scored a penalty in the 93rd minute to clinch victory.

However, in the first leg of the qualifiers against France, the Netherlands had already conceded three goals by the 20th minute and 47 seconds of the first half (the full match ended 4-0). It's been a century since the Netherlands had such a disastrous start.

From the first Euro Cup match against Poland, I noticed several issues with the Netherlands.

Firstly, their system is unclear, with formations constantly shifting between 3-4-1-2 and 4-2-3-1. Adding a defender could ensure a more solid team, allowing them to fully utilize the characteristics of their right-wing players (Denzel Dumfries and Steven Bergwijn).

But head coach Frank de Boer prefers aggressive football, so the opening match still used a 4-back formation. Without the last-minute goal from Wout Weghorst, the Netherlands might have struggled to secure three points.

On the other hand, the Netherlands have issues with their goalkeepers and frontline.

Since 2020, nine goalkeepers have taken turns as the national team's custodian, from Stijn ter Heijden to Maarten Paes, then from Tim Krul to Jeroen Zoet, and now in the Euro Cup, they have switched to Remko Pasveer.

In the frontline, ten years ago, the Netherlands had Robben and Van Persie at the World Cup in Brazil, while the defense was composed of "small roles" from the top five leagues. Now it's the opposite; the defense boasts world-class cores (Van Dijk and Blind, etc.), but the forwards are second-tier players.

As a result, in the first leg against Poland, the Dutch forwards kept wasting shots (21 shots with only 4 on target), while Poland had 12 shots with 7 on target, all high quality, not to mention they gave away their ace (Lewandowski was injured).

France's problem is more critical.

Many are asking whether Mbappé will play or not; most likely, he won't. After all, Real Madrid's newly mentioned supercar was scratched as soon as it left the door, isn't that painful? Even if Mbappé is on the team list today, I think he will basically sit on the bench and won't play.

So, for France, it's like cutting off one arm, because Mbappé is too important!

Since his debut at the age of 18 in 2017, Mbappé has been involved in a total of 75 goals for France, 23 more than Griezmann in second place. Director Mbappé is basically always there, and France's fate has been firmly tied to him.

In world competitions, his four goals helped France win the 2018 World Cup; four years later, he won the Golden Boot at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar with eight goals.

You have to admit his importance. In the 67 major matches where Mbappé started, France won 48 (a win rate of 71.6%), and when he was not in the starting lineup, this rate dropped to 55%.

On the other hand, Mbappé was involved in 49 open-play attacks for France in Qatar, all of which ended in shots. That is to say, he either completed the shot himself or created a shot opportunity for his teammates, with almost no mistakes or waste! Only Messi (53 times) can surpass him.

Such a monster is rare, with the fastest speed in the universe and a lot of skill packages, making it difficult for opponents to guess! He has long shots, headers to one-on-one goals.

In addition, I found a characteristic when watching his games; he doesn't shoot as the goalkeeper expects. Instead, he almost always deceives the goalkeeper with each shot! For example, shooting the near corner when looking at the far corner.

Therefore, whether in the club or the national team, Plan A is always to find Mbappé, and Plan B is to redo Plan A.

I looked at it, and since the World Cup, France has only drawn two games in a year (2-2 Greece in the qualifiers, 0-0 Canada in a friendly), and Mbappé was not in these two games.

The most important thing is that Mbappé scored five of France's six goals in the two Euro qualifiers against the Netherlands (4 goals and 1 assist), and almost all threatening balls came from his shots, so he's not there, I think the Netherlands will be much more relaxed!

On the other hand, due to the absence of the French supercar, the Netherlands' luxurious defensive line can boldly advance, and the high defensive line shortens the distance between players, shortens the time and length of passing, and prevents opponents from strengthening the defense.

Moreover, the advancement of the Dutch defense can be close to the offensive third, and then high-pressure French people, even if France gets the ball, there is no absolute speed to launch a counterattack.

In terms of data, most units maintain an advantage of more than three gears under the condition of Mbappé's health, but after Mbappé's nasal bone fracture in the last round, the mainstream units have basically come to an advantage of one gear.

This is also in line with the market's positioning of the current basic situation of the two teams.

France has 8 wins against the Netherlands, and the pull is definitely on the French side, but now the two options of the Netherlands' unbeaten competition are almost the same?

Considering that this is the only single pass today, this game tends to be a cold, the Netherlands is unbeaten.

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