FiveThirtyEight's initial Senate polling averages.

Yes at least according to the polling, Cruz is in one of the tightest Senate races this cycle.

Don't count out some of these races. We haven't had much high quality Senate polling this cycle, so I think these are very competitive races.

The Harris campaign is taking Florida seriously this cycle. Democrats will need Tester to win in Montana or for a reach win in Florida or Texas to hold the Senate.