RE: STEEM price, an honest assessment.
Hey @exyle, I have made a major realization today. The steem power up/power down mechanism is extremely bad for the price of steem, and is the main reason we have been loosing in ranking on coinmarketcap (yes staking is even worse than the 8% inflation!)
I am not an expert at tokenomics but I have an amazing track record (ironic) at buying or hodling on tops and selling at bottoms (or waiting to buy). In the past few years I have seen my portfolio go up 50X and down 95%. Also lost everything several times with leveraged trading.
Going all in is the worst kind of trading. It allows you to fomo at the top and panic at the bottom and sell everything. However, dollar cost averaging protects investors from their irrationality and creates market pressure for a longer time.
My main argument is that with STEEM, people are allowed to fomo in at the top. They can go all in. But they are not allowed to panic at the bottom. When they panic, they will press "Power down", and steem automatically forces them to dollar cost average over 13 weeks.
Since most people panic at the exact bottom it means that they will be able to sell every week when the steem price is boucing back up. They will get a better price then they would have otherwise. And this will create more selling of steem in terms of dollar volume. So it's really bad for the steem price.
For example, after the PORN airdrop on steem engine, everyone sold their tokens at once. The price crashed terribly. But people kept selling at extremely low prices, making the total dollar amount sold very low. Then the price jumped right back up.
Now imagine that the airdrop holders had only received 50% of their stake, and were going to receive the rest later. Then on the first airdrop day, the crash would look almost exactly the same in both cases, however they will keep selling every week at high prices after the airdrop making the selling pressure a lot higher!
I have a lot more arguments but I don't want this comment to be very long. I am considering writing a post about it, but I really want influential people on STEEM to see it. I thought about using bidbots, but meh... What do you suggest?
I know where you coming from and it's an interesting thought but frankly, there is not that much selling pressure anymore.
Currently, more people are powering up then down. There is almost no-one left besides Steemit inc. that can power down substantial amounts that haven't already done so.
A problem STEEM has is that there is hardly any volume. I expect this to change moving forward as the network gets bigger.
I'm taking these prices as an opportunity.
I saw that PORN token airdrop happen and the big selloff. I was buying them all the way to 0,03. (currently 0,17).
Opportunities on Steem happen every day. I have missed a fair bit of those but luckily also took some.
I saw that PORN token airdrop happen and the big selloff. I was buying them all the way to 0,03. (currently 0,17).
Question: Does that mean as an owner of Steem, I get these PORN drop tokens? If so, how I do I see what I've been allocated?
No, it was airdropped to PAL token holders only.
My point is not that there is more selling to come. I know more people are powering up now, but since 2017, steem went from rank 22 on coinmarketcap to rank 80. Above us there are coins with teams no longer developing.
Liquidity is a problem of course, but added to that is the fact that instead of getting rid of all the weak hands at once and at low prices, we’re allowing weak hands to sell at better prices and for longer times.
If instead we had an instant powerdown, people would have all sold when steem went to 22 cents the first time, and steem would have bounced back up to more than 45 cents. All altcoins went up a lot more on the rebound.
I know it’s part inflation, part steemit inc selling, but ehy keep a powerdown that is only acting against us?
Also @theycallmedan said multiple times that some investors don’t invest in steem because the powerdown is not instant. So it’s a win-win.
It’s not an easy concept to wrap our heads around, think about it.
But powering up, should be a commitment, because it gives power on the platform. So maybe we add a 2% fee for powering down, and now we also have an added sink. So many positives.
One person can up with a great idea before. Instant power downs with a 5% burn of the STEEM. Allowing people to skip the power down period but with a slight cost. It would fix this issue and also burn up STEEM making it a scarcer resource. I though that it was a brilliant solution.
That would be interesting solution @niallon11
Yes I agree. I think it was @theycallmedan. 5% is acceptable when normal powerdown remains an option. However i think it’s better to remove the normal powerdown and have 2% fee for powering down.
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Removing the power-down time will also remove one of Steem's best security feature.
Hi @exyle, @marki99
Interesting discussion guys,
What about Steemit Inc? Aren't they creating main selling pressure? Would you perhaps know how much do they sell monthly? I tried to figure it out but failed.
That's very interesting to know. I was wondering if you know any site allowing me to see list of all accounts on STEEM blockchain with their STEEM balance and stake?
Just like https://steem-engine.com/?p=market&t=PAL ?
Yours,
Piotr
I think you would be interested in statistics from @penguinpablo. He does a weekly report with the largest powerups.
Also steemwhales.com (or steemitboard.com) allows you to rank users by their steem power.
I don’t how to see everyone’s liquid steem though. Especially if they keep it in an exchange, it would be impossible to check.
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Late thank you for your valuable comment @marki99
Appreciate it a lot.
Yours, Piotr