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RE: Behind Stone Walls: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918/1919 at Pennhurst State School & Hospital
It really is a broad and vague estimate. I would be interested to see comparisons to calculations (and their methods) of more recent epidemics and pandemics. The closest in comparison I can think of (though this may be due to my own perspective) would perhaps be the HIV/AIDS crisis in the 1980s.