European development in the future
The ESPON project on European territory in the future began in June 2016. This project focuses on the analysis of current territorial development in Europe and is the basis for work on the development of trends until 2030. The report focuses on four domains: demography, socioeconomics, environment and climate change, research and technology. In this paper, the focus will be on studying demography and socioeconomics.
The aim of this project is to improve the understanding of possible territorial development in the future, as well as the possible consequences.
Demographic changes
People stand in the center of territorial development in general and especially in European cohesion policy. Whether people stay or move to an area, gives a first impression on the region's attractiveness, economic activity, living conditions and culture.
Europe has densely populated and well-connected urban areas and less connected rural areas. It seems that larger urban regions are favorite access points for demographic development. The European population is concentrated in metropolitan areas.
Increasing gaps between central and peripheral areas is increasingly expressed at different geographical levels, and the development of the population of some regions is very heterogeneous across Europe. The northern part of Europe is growing, while the population of the Central and Alpine regions drops slightly due to Germany, while the more serious losses of the Danube Region.
Migration
Migration affects the regions in which the population is settled as much as it affects the regions from which the population is evicted. Some of the effects observed in the last few years are:
*The outflow of intellectuals - in rural areas, the young and educated population goes in search of better education and work
*Segregation - leads to the separation of different social groups in urban areas
*Social tensions - represented in regions with poor migration history, lead to the arrival of new people from different cultures.
Over 400 million people will participate in migration flows, including those migrating due to climate change. At the local level there will be an increase in urbanization. As a result, over 60% of the population will live in urban areas in the next decade.
Socio-economic development
The main focus is often on issues such as economic growth and employment. As the current economic model faces growing challenges, and the rise in unemployment raises new issues, the overall socio-economic development is a very important factor in the discussions about the future. The economic and financial crisis in recent years has greatly influenced the turning of socio-economic development towards territorial cohesion.
GDP
Differences in regions in terms of gross domestic product have also increased since the onset of the economic and financial crisis. While in the Central and Alpine regions the most rural areas have gained the most, the situation in the urban areas has improved the most in the Danube Region. On the other hand, the heavy losses of the Mediterranean region mostly occurred in the middle areas, while the rural areas were somewhat less affected.
Unemployment
Unemployment is ranked as one of the biggest challenges for the EU in the future. This is mainly mentioned for the countries of southern and central Europe. Unemployment in 2015 was on average about 10% in Europe, but up to 30% in several regions in the southern parts of Spain and about 25% in the Greek regions. The most difficult problems with the increase in unemployment were in almost all Mediterranean countries. While several million new jobs will be created, this will not be enough to absorb high unemployment, especially in southern Europe. In fact, industrial employment is expected to fall to 13% of GDP in 2030, if it continues to decline in global competitiveness.
Source of the photo: ESPON, 2017
Source of the text: ESPON project- „Possible European Territorial Futures“