ECB tries to prove that Italy’s central bank is strong enough to support the economy during the pandemic
When the market is too optimistic, the good news is eagerly discussed and the bad news is ignored, I start thinking that it is the right time to exit. While Donald Trump is considering retaliatory measures to China because of Hong Kong, the S&P 500 is growing despite the deepest recession of the US economy since the Great Depression, the increase in the unemployment towards 20%, and the gloomy forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office. The CBO has lowered its GDP projection for 2030 made up in January by $15.7 trillion, suggesting the US economy should shrink by 5.6% in 2020, and the US economic recovery should take several years.
The S&P 500 is just one growth driver among several ones encouraging the EUR/USD bulls. During the stress in the financial markets, investors turned to safe havens, first of all, the greenback and Treasuries. However, once the global economies are being reopened, investors are lured back to risky assets. The USD index has been falling over the past few days, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since March 20. Nonetheless, the US-China trade relations are still uncertain. According to Bloomberg's source familiar with the matter, China has told state-owned firms to halt purchases of farm products from the United States after Washington said it would eliminate special treatment for Hong Kong to punish Beijing. China may not meet the obligations under the phase 1 trade deal signed in January.
Dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio in Italy, Japan, and the USA
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