People, emotions and logic: Whats the next ETH move?
I just had a friend call me. He told me how he sold all his ETH @ 507. He used to be a big crypto critic and at this point is entirely out of the market.
He is a very very smart dude and he bought ETH at the coinbase flash crash for $70 or so when the price was above $300.
Profits
What a fantastic run for him.
He explained that he had this goal of $507 and thus decided to sell.
I said that selling when the market is high is a great skill and that I believe somewhere in the future there is going to be a pop of this bubble. But he does not believe in the crash in the short term of the crypto market.
I was shocked to hear this! If he does not see a crash why is he selling?
I do agree with him on that. I think we are in a bubble but we are still early in it and this thing can run quite a bit further.
Feelings vs logic
I think my friend is making a mistake and not thinking this thru entirely. It looks more like an emotional commitment to previous goal he had set or some other conviction that is making him sell. Maybe these profits are to good to be true? Maybe this cannot be.
But: Are these feelings justified?
Let's try to keep it real
Let me show you why I think selling ETH right now is not a good idea.
In the chart below we see that ETH goes in moves and bands. We see after it came out, it hovered between $0.5 and $2. To me at this point ETH was worth $1.
Then it moved to a band between $8-$15 or about $10. This is a 10X move.
This year it went from that level to $400 came back to $200 and built that famous triangle around $300. Thats a 30X move. With some intermediate steps, but to me that's the big picture.
Now just a few days ago it has broken out of this, breaking thru the $400 barrier.
Looking ahead
So at this point it is very hard for me to see ETH staying where it is or coming down. I think it will likely go up quite a bit more. If it goes up 10x then we would meet at 3k. A 30X movewould put as close the 10k. I am guessing we are going to be somewhere in between these two.
In the past these moves have come with some real changes that happened in ethereum. The move to $10 came with a new release that made ethereum really usable (out of beta). The move to $300 came with practically all of the ICO using ethereum as their platform and a storm of new ICOs and speculative investment all based on ethereum. As a result these moves while maybe exaggerated were driven by real change and fueled by speculation.
Now we have big upgrades coming again with Ethereum moving to POS in the near future. So we have fundamental change and technical chart patterns that align.
A a result I think selling ETH right now is not a great idea and does not make logical sense, even though the crash risk is very high as always.
I cannot predict the future. But prepare for it.
This is a new asset class. Do not compare it with a stock or project or resource. In order to succeed we must be able to open our minds and be ready to learn what this new foundational tech will bring.
I am excited for the future and I have no idea where it goes. But I think we have entered a new move for ETH and I will simply enjoy the ride.
I feel like sometimes when people reach their goals they want out and fear of loosing what they wanted in the first place
Or sometimes we don't know what to do next.
i have done this plenty of times. You make your goals and then you don't know what to do with yourself!
That’s why I feel like it’s good to set high goals , once you reach one people don’t know what to do then . Dream big
I hope you are right, but i don't have any eth.. I hope some other will make my losses forget... I see 2017 as a learning year and 2018 will be the year to take the fruits.
Market Cap unbelievable Daily increase ^^ :) So ETH Price easly will reaches high levels 2000$
Interesting thoughts @knircky!
I hope you are right since I have some ETH. On the other hand I think there actually will be some form of correction in Q1. It really depends on a lot of factors, but I do think that investors and speculators in the space will start to look more seriously towards all projects going on.
A lot of promises have been made by the thousands of projects/ICOs that launched on Ethereum and we'll see the first projects that are not delivering on their roadmap quite soon. Q4 becomes Q1 and Q1 becomes Q2 etc. That probably has a negative price effect on 'the house' (Ethereum) and on trust in the development within the space.
On the other hand, the price is of course also influenced by all kinds of other events that might take place simultaneously though. Whether it be the scaling solutions, stock market corrections, extra money inflow, Christmas dinner table conversations etc.
All in all quite exciting! I am hodling, but expect to be able to buy extra at a nice discount end of Q1 ;-)
Very interesting thoughts. I believe the same thing that promises will be broken which will lead to pain and tears. I believe we are currently in a phase of speculation which is the beginning of the life cycles of crypto. This tech is barely crawling and far away from being able to walk or stand on its own. This speculation is natural but alone leads to bubbles that pop. But in addition i think we will move into the next life cycle phase of crypto currencies which will be utility. For ethereum this means projects will go life and be used. Most of them won't work and die and this will create an awakening and lead to crashes out of which the successful projects will emerge and create utility that will lead to adoption and ultimate growth.
I am not sure if the speculation bubble and the utility blow will come tother or one will happen after the other or maybe none of this will happen and the market will just gradually grow and correct without super crashes for a while.
As such i try to stay vigilant, observe, learn and adjust to what is happening.
We're very much on the same page here I feel :-)
It really depends on what happens simultaneously. As you mention if certain events take place at the same time, super crashes will be avoided/disguised.
3,5 years ago I saw the same thing happening with the 'overpromise, underdeliver'-situation (not many projects from that time are still around) and I am a bit wary because of that. I try to find projects that have more of a humble 'underpromise, overdeliver'-attitude, although the incentives are too high more most to stick to that ;-)
I have a bubch of projects from that time. Storj, ethereum, bitshares are things that panned out.
Others that i invested who failed were: counterparty, swarm, ltbcoin. Overall quite profitable.
Wauw, you made some good picks! And counterparty and swarm are not fully dead yet :-P Wish I had done my research back then more thoroughly..
I kept some BTC so all in all still good :-)
i thought swarm was dead. i sold XCP because i lost faith into the project.
Oh you are right, I thought you meant Swarm city...but indeed, not very alive anymore...Hope your current ones survive!
Nobody can find the perfect timing to get on and out of a market. But if you have a lot of discipline you probably you can ride with the most success in the long term
It is also important and necessary to realize your profits at some point. Maybe your friend is planning some other investment.
I wish I was in the market so early, no we are just riding the waves until the break. Hopefully later than sooner, but don't forget to back up yourself somehow.
Anyways wishing you lots of luck with ETH!!
With any investment, one chooses to gamble based on factors they cannot control. Each person hopes they will reach a high goal, that their profits will skyrocket, and that they will not break even or lose everything they invested. Those risks, of course, will go as far as a person feels or chooses to ride it out. Sometimes the pressure gets too high and a person will fold or cash out. As you've said, no one can predict the future, but if a person feels good about staying in the market they may get rewarded for holding down their fort, or that time and money may fall through if the bubble does burst. It's good to think logically through as you've shown in this post, and also use a bit of how you feel if you have good intuition because that "gut feeling" doesn't always steer a person wrong. I wish you and your friend all the best!
i think eth will be 1500$ in the next year ..
my target is 5k in this run. ill post why soon
5k its too much , But I will wait the post of the reason that made you say that :)
Do you expect it's going to go up because of it's upcoming PoS change? when are you planning to post about ETH? @knircky
Thank's for sharing @knircky
Microsfot is Microsoft, everyone will have to pay upgraded with ETH, the value will grow even more.
is he selling for good or too short it?
I think it is ok to sell if you had the 500$ mark goal and then actually pull the trigger.
I mean everyone is taking about a correction and there will be blood in the street again but after a while the good coins will chase new ath again and ETH is a good coin.
i think just to lock in the profit.